The season of college basketball Conference Tournaments are upon us! While the major conferences are wrapping up their regular seasons this week, some of the smaller conferences tip off their Conference Tournaments and the quest to earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament begins. Of the conferences starting tournaments this week, only a few have the opportunity to significantly impact the bubble picture. In the West Coast Conference, Gonzaga is in the conversation for the #1 overall seed. Wofford in the Southern Conference should also be in solid position for an at-large bid if they fail to win their tournament. Beyond that, teams like Lipscomb, Furman, UNC-Greensboro, and Belmont may all be in the conversation for at-large bids but will likely find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble due to a lack of quality wins.
As conference tournament play heats up, make sure to bookmark our Conference Tournament Tracker to follow along with who has secured automatic bids.
Additionally, I’ll be updating my Bracket Projection much more frequently as we move closer to Selection Sunday.
Atlantic Sun
March 4, 7, 10
Higher seed hosts game
Top Seeds: Lipscomb, Liberty
Sleeper: NJIT
Tournament Format: 8 teams in a normal bracket
Recent History: Lipscomb is the defending Tournament champions after earning their first NCAA Tournament bid in school history last year. Florida Gulf Coast has appeared in 3 straight A-Sun championship games and has reached the final in 6 of the last 7 years. The home court advantage of the A-Sun tournament has played a role as 7 of the last 8 tournament champions were either the #1 or #2 seed.
Preview: Defending tournament champions Lipscomb and newcomer Liberty (who moved from the Big South) battled all season for the conference title. The two split their head-to-head meetings with Lipscomb getting the top seed thanks to a slightly higher NET rating. If Lipscomb does not win the Tournament, the Bison do have an outside chance at being in the conversation for an at-large bid thanks to a road win at TCU. Lipscomb and Liberty both have efficient offenses and defenses by KenPom standards, but have distinctly different styles of play. Lipscomb is an up-tempo team while Liberty is slow and methodical. Lipscomb’s Garrison Mathews (19.8 PPG) is the league’s leading scorer while Liberty has 3 players (Lovell Cabbil, Elijah Cuffee, and Georgie Pacheco-Ortiz) that school over 40% from beyond the arc. North Florida is the best rebounding team in the conference and NJIT is one of just 3 teams with a winning record on the road.
Big South
March 5, 7, 8, 10
Higher seed hosts game
Top Seeds: Campbell, Radford
Sleeper: Winthrop
Tournament Format: 11 teams with the bottom six playing in three play-in games
Recent History: Radford is the defending tournament champions Winthrop has been a dominant force in the Big South Conference for nearly 20 years. Since 1999, the Eagles have won the league tournament 10 times and appeared in the championship game 13 times. Winthrop has reached the Big South Championship each of the last four seasons. Interestingly, the top seed has only won the Big South Tournament once in the last 6 years.
Preview: Radford looked poised to run away with the conference title but dropped 3 of their last 5 games to fall into a tie with Campbell. The Camels topped Radford twice in the regular season, including in the season finale, to claim the top seed in the tournament. Campbell features the nation’s leading scorer in Chris Clemons (30.1 PPG). Getting the top seed is a boost for Campbell who will now have home-court advantage where they are 11-3 this year (as opposed to 5-7 on the road). Radford made some noise early in the season when they beat Notre Dame and Texas. Don’t sleep on Winthrop, the highest-scoring team in the conference (84 PPG). The Big South will be a one-bid league but it’s shaping up to be a good tournament with Campbell, Radford, and Winthrop as the favorites.
Colonial
March 9-12
Charleston
Top Seeds: Hofstra, Northeastern
Sleeper: Charleston
Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom 4 playing in two play-in games followed by a normal bracket
Recent History: Charleston is the defending champions after knocking off Northeastern in overtime last year. The CAA is not a tournament where you are likely to find a massive upset. One of the top three seeds has won the league’s automatic bid in each of the last 17 seasons. The last three CAA Champions have all given a challenge to their first-round opponent in the NCAA Tournament with Northeastern taking Notre Dame to the wire in 2015, UNC Wilmington challenging Duke and Virginia in 2016 and 2017, and Charleston giving Auburn a run for their money last year.
Preview: Top-seeded Hofstra is the highest-scoring team in the league (84 PPG) and features the nation’s second-leading scorer in Justin Wright-Foreman (26.8 PPG). The Pride also rank as one of the most efficient offenses in the country. Northeastern is a quality team that finished just behind Hofstra in the standings. The top 3 teams (Hofstra, Northeastern, and Charleston) all rate in the Top 100 in offensive efficiency. Charleston will have the home crowd advantage as the tournament hosts and shouldn’t be counted out as the Cougars look to become the third CAA team this decade to earn back-to-back trips to the NCAA Tournament.
Horizon
March 5, 6, 11, 12
Campus sites for quarterfinals, Detroit for semis and finals
Top Seeds: Wright St, Northern Kentucky
Sleeper: Youngstown State
Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom 4 playing in two play-in games followed by a normal bracket
Recent History: The last two seasons, the Horizon League has been upset central. In 2017 the top three seeds all fell in their opening games and the semi-finals featured the #4, #6, #9 and #10 seeds. In 2018 2 of the top 3 seeds lost their openers and the semi-finals featured the #2, #4, #6, and #8 seeds. In four of the last five years the top seed has failed to advance to the title game. This is not good news for defending tournament champions Wright State who holds the top seed this season.
Preview: The Horizon League used to be one of the top Mid-Major Tournaments but it has lost a bit of luster in recent years with the departure of Butler in 2013 and Valparaiso in 2018. In an effort to mitigate some of the upsets that have marked this tournament, only the top 8 teams made the field this season. This is a wide open field as the top two seeds are the last two champions (Wright State and Northern Kentucky), but both lost 5 conference games this season. Green Bay has the highest-scoring offense (81.2 PPG) but also the worst defense (80.3 PPG) in the league. Wright State has the stingiest defense (67.8 PPG) while Northern Kentucky has the best scoring margin (79.0 PPG to 68.4 Points Against Per Game). Detroit Mercy’s Antoine Davis (26 PPG) is the nation’s third-leading scorer.
MAAC
March 7-11
Albany
Top Seeds: Iona, Canisius
Sleeper: Siena
Tournament Format: 11 teams with the bottom 6 playing in three play-in games followed by a normal bracket
Recent History: Iona is the three-time defending tournament champions. The Gaels have reached the MAAC title game in six straight seasons. Incredibly, the top seed has not won the MAAC tournament in eight years – dating back to a 3-year stretch from 2008-2010 when Siena won from the top seed each season. In addition to their 11 MAAC tournament titles (twice as many as any other team), Iona is the only MAAC team to receive an At-Large bid to the NCAA Tournament in the last 20 years. Last year the top 3 seeds were all knocked out in their first games by the 3 teams that won the play-in games, giving 4th-seeded Iona a path to the title.
Preview: Iona, the dominant force in the MAAC, won the regular season title in one of the tightest races in the nation. The Gaels finished on a 7-game winning streak and edged Canisius, Quinnipiac, Rider, and Siena by 1 game and Monmouth by 2 games. This figures to result in a wide open tournament where any team can claim the automatic bid. Unfortunately since the MAAC teams beat each other so much during the regular season, only Quinnipiac, Rider, and Siena enter the postseason with winning records. This will likely result in a 16-seed for the tournament champion. Quinnipiac’s Cameron Young (23 PPG) is the conference’s leading scorer while Iona’s EJ Crawford leads the league in shooting percentage. The Gaels have the top-scoring offense but also one of the worst defenses, averaging 77 points for and against this year.
Missouri Valley
March 7-10
St. Louis
Top Seeds: Loyola-Chicago, Drake
Sleeper: Missouri State
Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom 4 playing in two play-in games followed by a normal bracket
Recent History: Four of the last seven Arch Madness Tournaments were won by teams no longer in the conference (Wichita State and Creighton). Last year Loyola-Chicago swept through the regular season and the conference tournament then became the darlings of the nation as they made a run to the Final Four from an 11-seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Ramblers won a number of close games with the charm of Sister Jean on the sidelines.
Preview: This season was a bit more difficult for Loyola as they lost 6 conference games but ultimately claimed the top seed thanks to a season sweep of Drake. Loyola boasted the top defense (60.9 PAPG) while Drake had the top offense (75.9 PPG). The Missouri Valley was not a high-scoring league and Drake was the only team to average over 70 points per game this season. Keep an eye out for 4th-seeded Missouri State who swept Loyola this season and may get a third shot at the Ramblers in the semifinals.
Northeast
March 6, 9, 12
Higher seed hosts game
Top Seeds: St. Francis (PA), Fairleigh Dickinson
Sleeper: Robert Morris
Tournament Format: 8 teams in a normal bracket that is re-seeded for the semi-finals.
Recent History: Mount Saint Mary’s is the defending champions and became the first top seed to win the NEC Tournament since 2012. Three schools have dominated this conference over the last decade. Mount Saint Mary’s and Robert Morris have both won the tournament 3 times and defending champion LIU-Brooklyn has gone dancing 4 times this decade. Farleigh Dickinson’s 2016 title was the only team to break that stronghold.
Preview: Mount St. Mary’s won’t have a chance to add to their total this season as they finished 9th in the conference where only the top 8 qualify for the tournament. St. Francis (PA) and Fairleigh Dickinson split the regular season title with Sacred Heart and Robert Morris just a game behind. Three of the eight teams (Sacred Heart, St Francis (Brooklyn), and Bryant) have never been to an NCAA Tournament. Every team in the league is at least 3 games under .500 on the road, which gives a significant advantage to the teams with home-court advantage in the Tournament. Sacred Heart has the highest-scoring offense (80.5 PPG) while Fairleigh Dickinson won 5 in a row to end the regular season.
Ohio Valley
March 6-9
Evansville
Top Seeds: Belmont, Murray St
Sleeper: Jacksonville St
Tournament Format: Top 8 teams qualify. Top two seeds receive double-byes to the Semifinals and the #3 and #4 seeds receive byes to the Quarterfinals.
Recent History: Since joining the Ohio Valley Conference in the 2012-13 season, Belmont has dominated the regular season. Winning either the East Division title or Regular Season conference title every season except 2018. The Bruins have had a double-bye in the Tournament every year except 2015 but have only advanced to the NCAA Tournament twice in that span. In fact, a different team has represented the Ohio Valley in each of the last 5 NCAA Tournaments. Prior to last season when the top two seeds (Murray St and Belmont) met in the Championship, it wass hard to say that the double-bye format has been beneficial to the top seeds. Prior to 2018, the #1 and #2 seeds failed to win the conference tournament in 4 straight seasons.
Preview: Last year’s top teams are back in the mix as Belmont and Murray St tied for the conference title. Belmont earned the top seed thanks to a head-to-head victory over the Racers. There is a distinct divide between the top 4 teams in the OVC as 4th place Austin Peay finished 5 games ahead of 5th place Morehead St. If the top 4 seeds reach the semifinals the OVC could turn into the most exciting tournament of the week. Belmont averages 88.3 PPG while Murray St (83.8 PPG) and Austin Peay (82.3 PPG) are close behind. Third place Jacksonville State was responsible for both of Belmont’s conference losses along with one of Murray State’s losses. Murray State’s Ja Morant is being talked about as a potential NBA lottery pick and leads the conference in scoring (24.1 PPG) and leads the nation in assists (10.3 APG). Belmont’s Dylan Windler (21.1 PPG, 10.3 RPG) leads the conference in rebounding and is a double-double machine.
Patriot
March 5, 7, 10, 13
Higher seed hosts game
Top Seeds: Colgate, Bucknell
Sleeper: Lehigh
Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom 4 playing in two play-in games followed by a normal bracket
Recent History: Bucknell has won 8 of the last 9 regular season titles but has only reached the Big Dance four times in that span. The Bison are the two-time defending Tournament champions but will not have home court advantage for the first time since 2014.
Preview: Colgate won their last 8 games to steal the top seed from Bucknell. It speaks to the stability of Bucknell’s program that they were able to lose their top 3 scorers from last year’s team to graduation and still finish tied for the regular season title. The Raiders and Bison finished tied atop the league with Lehigh just one game behind. The Mountain Hawks are the highest-scoring team in the league, averaging 80.3 PPG and lead the nation in 3-point shooting at 43.4%. Colgate, American, and Holy Cross are the only teams holding opponents under 70 points per game.
Southern
March 8-11
Asheville
Top Seeds: Wofford, UNC-Greensboro
Sleeper: Samford
Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom 4 playing in two play-in games followed by a normal bracket
Recent History: The SoCon Tournament has been dominated by the top seeds. In the last 11 years, no team seeded lower than 3rd has won the conference tournament and the top seed has won 7 times. East Tennessee St beat UNC Greensboro in the championship game in 2017 then Greensboro returned the favor in the 2018 title game. East Tennessee St has reached the title game in three straight seasons.
Preview: The SoCon currently has FOUR teams ranked in the Top 70 of the NET Rankings. Unfortunately unless Wofford loses at some point in the conference tournament, it seems unlikely that UNC-Greensboro, Furman, or East Tennessee State has a strong enough resume to nab an at-large bid. Of that group, Furman has the best chance thanks to their road win over Villanova. Wofford rolled through the regular season with a perfect 18-0 conference record, averaging 83 points per game with one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the nation. Scoring machine Fletcher Magee (20.7 PPG) paced the Terriers. Furman, ETSU, and UNC-G all averaged between 77 and 80 points per game while holding opponents under 69. None could come close to Wofford’s 65.4 Points Against Per Game. At the end of the day, these are four quality teams which should make for a great semifinals and finals next weekend.
Summit
March 9-12
Sioux Falls
Top Seeds: South Dakota St, Omaha
Sleeper: North Dakota St
Tournament Format: 8 teams in a normal bracket
Recent History: Over the last 7 years, two teams have dominated the Summit League Tournament. South Dakota State and North Dakota State are the only teams to represent the league in that span with South Dakota St winning 5 titles (including the last three) and North Dakota St winning the other two. The two teams have met 3 times in the conference championship game over that span with South Dakota St appearing in 6 of the last 7 league title games. The Jackrabbits won the tournament from the 4-seed in 2017, which was the only time since 2006 one of the top two seeds did not win the conference title.
Preview: Welcome to the Mike Daum show. The South Dakota State senior surpassed 3,000 points for his career this season and is 4th in the nation in both scoring (25.6 PPG) and rebounding (11.7 RPG). Daum has led the Jackrabbits to one of the highest-scoring offenses in the nation, averaging 85 PPG. The top end of the Summit league is loaded with talented offensive teams with second-place Omaha (79.9 PPG) and third-place Purdue-Fort Wayne (83 PPG).
West Coast
March 7, 8, 9, 11, 12
Las Vegas
Top Seeds: Gonzaga, St Mary’s
Sleeper: San Francisco
Tournament Format: 10 teams qualify for the tournament. The top two seeds receive byes to the semifinals while the #3 and #4 seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals. The 7th-10th seeds play in the first round with the winners advancing to play the #5 and #6 seed in the second round. The tournament does not have games scheduled on Sunday because BYU can not play games on Sundays.
Recent History: Gonzaga has dominated the West Coast Conference tournament, winning the last 6 titles and 16 of the last 20. The last time Gonzaga did not appear in the Championship Game of the WCC Tournament was in 1997. Since the tournament moved to the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas in 2009, St. Mary’s has been the only other team to earn the league’s automatic bid. In fact, Gonzaga and St. Mary’s have faced off in 7 of the last 10 WCC title games, though the Gaels have not topped the Zags since 2012.
Preview: Gonzaga swept through the regular season with a perfect 16-0 conference record and has won 20 straight games. The Zags are in the conversation for the #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament and average 89.8 PPG. No other team in the conference is within 10 points of their season average offensively. Loyola Marymount has the top defense in the conference, holding teams to 62.8 PPG. St. Mary’s, BYU, and San Francisco are all ranked in the Top 80 of the NET rankings, but none of them have enough good wins to make a case for an at-large bid. If a second WCC team is going to make it to the Big Dance, it will likely be through upsetting Gonzaga and winning the conference tournament.
