Home Bracketology 2023 NCAA Champ Week Preview: Majors

2023 NCAA Champ Week Preview: Majors

by Ian

The college basketball regular season has officially concluded. A number of conferences that held tournaments last week have already handed out their automatic bids to the Big Dance. This week, the rest of the mid-majors along with the major conferences will conduct their tournaments. A separate post will cover the major conferences where a number of teams are also fighting for at-large bids. Of the 11 mid-major leagues conducting their tournaments this week, only the Mountain West and Conference USA have the potential for At-Large bids. The remaining 9 conferences will send just one team to the Dance, but several of them have pulled upsets in past years and are worth watching.

As conference tournament play heats up, make sure to bookmark our Conference Tournament Tracker to follow along with who has secured automatic bids.

Additionally, I’ll be updating my Bracket Projection much more frequently as we move closer to Selection Sunday.

ACC

March 7-11
Greensboro, NC

Top Seeds: Miami, Virginia

Sleeper: North Carolina

Likely NCAA Tournament Teams: Virginia, Miami, Duke

Bubble Teams: NC State, Pitt, North Carolina, Clemson

Tournament Format: All 15 teams qualify. The top 4 seeds get byes to the quarterfinals. The bottom 6 teams play in first round play-in games.

Recent History:  The 2021 championship game between Georgia Tech and Florida State was the only time since 1997 that the final did not feature either Duke or North Carolina. That 22-year streak technically came to an end in 2019 since the 2020 Tournament was cancelled due to COVID. Duke has won 12 titles since 1999, including becoming the first ACC team to ever win 4 games in 4 days in 2017. Virginia Tech repeated this feat last year, winning the tournament from the 7-seed. The top seed has only won the ACC Tournament once in the last five years.

Preview: This tournament is as wide open as the ACC has ever been. Only one game separated the top five teams. Miami clinched the regular season title with a win over Pitt in the final game of the season. Pitt had a game-winning shot hit the rim at the buzzer. A win would’ve given the Panthers, and ACC Coach of the Year Jeff Capel, the conference title – but instead they fell all the way to the 5th seed with a loss. Pitt’s resume with shaky losses to Florida State and Notre Dame puts them in a precarious spot in the NCAA Tournament field. Duke is one of the hottest teams, winners of 6 in a row after the ACC officials did not allow Freshman of the Year Kyle Filipowski to shoot free throws after a foul was called at the end of the game against Virginia. North Carolina, who made a run to the Final Four last year, is looking to find that magic again and will need a deep run to bolster a resume that is short on good wins. Miami led the league in scoring (79.6 PPG) while Virginia’s snail’s pace and pressure defense held teams to just 60.5 points against. Clemson was the best outside shooting team but the Tigers were inconsistent and will need to find their shooting touch to play their way into March Madness. Miami’s Isaiah Wong was the conference Player of the Year while Wake Forest’s Tyree Appleby (18.8 PPG) led the ACC in scoring. NC State could cause some headaches with the duo of Terquavion Smith and Jarkel Joiner who both average 17 per game.

American

March 9-12
Fort Worth, TX

Top Seeds: Houston, Memphis

Sleeper: Cincinnati

Likely NCAA Tournament Teams: Houston

Bubble Teams: Memphis

Tournament Format: All 11 teams qualify. The bottom 6 teams play in 3 play-in games in the opening round.

Recent History: This is the ninth year for the American Athletic Conference Tournament after the breakup of the Big East in 2013.  Houston is the two-time defending champions. Cincinnati has reached the title game in 4 of the last 5 seasons. SMU won the Tournament in 2015 and 2017, both from the #1 seed. The favorites have typically dominated the American, as one of the top 2 seeds has won all but 1 of the AAC Tournaments so far, when UConn claimed the crown in 2016.

Preview: Houston breezed through the regular season with only 2 losses and is solidly in the conversation for one of the #1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars only loss in conference play came against Temple and they boast the best defense in the nation (56.5 points against per game). Marcus Sasser (17.1 PPG) led the way in scoring, but it was the inside duo of Jarace Walker (11.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG) and J’Wan Roberts (10.5 PPG, 7.2 RPG) that were the unstoppable force for Houston. In addition to their stellar defense, the Cougars led the conference in rebounding and blocks. Tulane had the most explosive offense (80.8 PPG) led by the duo of Jalen Cook (20.4 PPG) and Jaylen Forbes (18.8 PPG). Memphis is hanging around the right side of the bubble but needs to avoid a devastating upset. The Tigers’ Kendrick Davis leads the AAC in scoring (21.5 PPG) and assists (5.6 APG). If you’re looking for an off-the-radar team to go on a run, don’t sleep on Cincinnati who is the best 3-point shooting team in the AAC.

Big East

March 8-11
New York, NY

Top Seeds: Marquette, Xavier

Sleeper: Villanova

Likely NCAA Tournament Teams: Marquette, UConn, Xavier, Creighton

Bubble Teams: Providence

Tournament Format: All 11 teams qualify. The bottom 6 teams play in first round play-in games.

Recent History: Since the breakup of the old Big East in 2013, Villanova has been the top seed in 7 of the 10 tournaments. The Wildcats have been the dominant force in the tournament, winning 5 of the last 7 championships and reaching the final in all but one of those seasons. Seton Hall had been the only team able to beat the Wildcats in the conference tournament, beating them in the 2016 title game and the 2014 quarterfinals. But those trends changed in 2021 when 8th-seeded Georgetown upset top-seeded Villanova by a point in the quarterfinals en route to winning the tournament and claiming the automatic bid. Perhaps there was a bit of historical revenge for when 8th-seeded Villanova beat top-seeded Georgetown in the 1985 National Championship Game.

Preview: For just the third time in the decade since the breakup of the Old Big East, Villanova did not win the regular season title. That said, don’t count out the Wildcats from making another deep run as they won 6 of their last 8 games to close out the season. UConn, despite being the #4 seed is the heavy favorite as the Huskies have returned to their early-season dominance when they were the #1 team in the nation for a few weeks. The computer metrics love UConn and Creighton despite their middling results in conference play. Xavier plays a fast and fun game, averaging 82.1 PPG while conference champions Marquette is close behind at 81 per game. The Big East has five teams in the Top 30 in the nation in offensive efficiency, adding UConn, Providence, and Creighton to the aforementioned squads. Creighton, UConn, and Seton Hall are among the best defensive squads in the nation. UConn’s duo of Adama Sanogo (16.9 PPG) and Jordan Hawkins (16.4 PPG) were both in the top 3 in the conference in scoring. Xavier is the best 3-point shooting team while Marquette has been the best at turning defense to offense, leading the league in steals by a wide margin.

Big Ten

March 8-12
Indianapolis, IN

Top Seeds: Purdue, Northwestern

Sleeper: Iowa

Likely NCAA Tournament Teams: Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern, Michigan St, Maryland, Iowa, Illinois

Bubble Teams: Wisconsin, Rutgers, Penn St, Michigan

Tournament Format: All 14 teams qualify. The top 4 seeds get byes to the quarterfinals. The bottom 4 teams play in opening round play-in games.

Recent History: Before COVID cancelled the 2020 Tournament, a team from the state of Michigan won the prior 4 Big Ten Tournaments and appeared in the title game in 6 straight seasons. That changed in 2021 when Illinois topped Ohio State in a thrilling overtime game in the Big Ten final. Last year Iowa made a run from the 5-seed thanks to some lights out 3-point shooting to claim the title. Interestingly, a team seeded lower than 3rd has reached the title game in 10 of the last 14 years. Iowa’s victory was the third time in the last five years a team seeded lower than 3rd won the tournament.

Preview: This year’s Big Ten Tournament figures to be similarly wide open to previous seasons. Purdue is in the conversation for a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament while the next tier of teams could fall anywhere between the 4- and 9-seed lines. The Big Ten also has a handful of teams hanging right around the cut line in Wisconsin, Rutgers, Penn State, and Michigan. The Michigan-Rutgers game on Thursday could essentially be a bubble elimination game. Purdue, led by Big Ten Player of the Year Zach Edey (21.9 PPG, 12.8 RPG), won the regular season title by 3 games. Iowa, thanks to their 3-point shooting, led the conference in scoring (80.6 PPG) while simultaneously having the worst defense. Rutgers (60.4 PAPG) and Northwestern (62.3 PAPG) were the best defensive squads. Michigan State shot over 40% from beyond the arc while Penn State averaged the most 3-pointers per game. Indiana’s duo of Freshman of the Year Jalen Hood-Schifino (13.4 PPG) and Trayce Jackson-Davis (20.5 PPG) have put the Hoosiers in position to land on one of the top four seed lines in March. Penn State’s Jalen Pickett (18 PPG, 7.0 APG) has carried the Lions to the bubble.

Big XII

March 8-11
Kansas City, MO

Top Seeds: Kansas, Texas

Sleeper: Anyone

Likely NCAA Tournament Teams: Kansas, Texas, Baylor, Kansas St, Iowa St, TCU, West Virginia

Bubble Teams: Oklahoma St

Tournament Format: All 10 teams qualify. The bottom four teams play in first round play-in games followed by a normal bracket.

Recent History: Kansas’ historic streak of 14 straight years of winning at least a share of the Big XII regular season title came to an end in 2018. Only Texas’ 2021 Big XII Tournament title is the only time since 2006 that Kansas (10), Iowa St (4) or Missouri (2) did not win the title. West Virginia reached the championship game in 3 straight seasons from 2016-2018 but lost each time. Since the inception of the Big XII tournament in 1997, Iowa St (in 2014, 2017, and 2019) has been the only team to win the tournament seeded lower than 3rd.

Preview: The Big XII was the deepest league in the nation and any team is capable of getting hot and winning this tournament. The top 7 teams in the conference are all in the Top 25 in overall efficiency at KenPom. The conference has produced the last two national champions with Baylor winning in 2021 and Kansas winning it all last year. The Jayhawks are loaded and capable of repeating as national champions once again this season. The conference awards were stacked with Kansas players, led by Player of the Year Jalen Wilson (19.7 PPG), Defensive Player of the Year DaJuan Harris Jr, and Most Improved Player KJ Adams Jr. Wilson led the Big XII in scoring and rebounding (8.4 RPG), edging out the duo of Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell from Kansas State who both average 17 points per game. Texas was the highest-scoring team in the conference (78.8 PPG) while Iowa St led the way defensively (62.2 PAPG). Baylor was the top three-point shooting team (36.8%), knocking down 9.5 per game.

Pac-12

March 8-11
Las Vegas, NV

Top Seeds: UCLA, Arizona

Sleeper: Arizona St

Likely NCAA Tournament Teams: Arizona, UCLA, USC

Bubble Teams: Arizona St, Oregon

Tournament Format: All 12 teams qualify. The top 4 seeds get byes to the quarterfinals.

Recent History: Oregon has appeared in the championship game in 4 of the last 7 tournaments and Arizona has reached the championship game in 7 of the last 11 tournaments. Either Oregon or Arizona had won the last 5 Pac-12 titles before 2021 when Oregon State won it from the #5 seed. Oregon won the tournament from the #6 seed in 2019. Arizona re-claimed the title from the top seed last season. Interestingly, 6 of the last 13 Pac 12 Tournament Champions have played in the 3-6 game.

Preview: UCLA has quietly put together a fantastic season that has them on the verge of earning a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Bruins topped Arizona in the final game of the season to close out the year on a 10-game winning streak. UCLA has the second-best offense (74.2 PPG) and best defense (60.1 PAPG) in the conference. The Bruins will enter the postseason a decorated bunch after Jaime Jaquez Jr (17.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG) won the Player of the Year, Jaylen Clark won Defensive Player of the Year, and Adem Bona won Freshman of the Year. Arizona led the Pac-12 in scoring (83.1 PPG) and had the league’s leading scorer in Azuolas Tubelis (19.9 PPG, 9.2 RPG). Washington State has good computer metrics but has hovered around the .500 mark all year. The Cougars are the best 3-point shooting team in the Pac-12 (with Jabe Mullins and Justin Powell both shooting over 40% from deep) and could cause some problems in the next week. Arizona State and Oregon are hovering around the bubble and will be looking for signature wins to state their case to the Selection Committee. Watch out for USC’s Boogie Ellis who led the conference in 3-pointers and was the second-leading scorer (18.1 PPG).

 SEC

March 8-12
Nashville, TN

Top Seeds: Alabama, Texas A&M

Sleeper: Vanderbilt

Likely NCAA Tournament Teams: Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Missouri, Auburn, Arkansas

Bubble Teams: Mississippi St

Tournament Format: All 14 teams qualify. The top 4 seeds get byes to the quarterfinals. The bottom 4 teams play in first round play-in games.

Recent History: Kentucky won four straight SEC tournaments from 2015-2018 but have not been back to the championship game since. Tennessee is the defending champions and have been to the finals in three of the last four tournaments. Auburn’s 2019 title was the only time since 2010 that the SEC Tournament champion was not one of the top four seeds.

Preview: Is it possible to call Tennessee a sleeper in this field? The Vols are the defending SEC Tournament champions and ranked in the Top 5 in the country by most predictive metrics but are seeded 5th due to tiebreakers. Alabama has been the best team in the conference and is in the conversation for the #1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament. However, a cloud has hung over the Tide’s season in the wake of a murder investigation involving former player Darius Miles. Miles’ teammate Brandon Miller (who has been allowed to continue playing) is being investigated for delivering the murder weapon to Miles. On the basketball court, Miller leads the SEC in scoring (19.6 PPG) and is in the top 5 in rebounding (8.0 RPG). Alabama leads the conference in scoring (82.8 PPG) while the aforementioned Tennessee has the stingiest defense (57.5 PAPG). Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe (16.4 PPG, 13.1 RPG) returned this year after winning National Player of the Year last season. The Wildcats had an inconsistent start to the season but have come on down the stretch. Computer metrics love Arkansas but their on-court results have not matched. Mississippi State will be looking to ride their defense (60.4 PAPG) to hearing their name called on Selection Sunday. Under the radar, a sneaky-hot team has been Vanderbilt who won 8 of their last 9 games.

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