Home 2023 NCAA Tournament Bracketology

2023 NCAA Tournament Bracketology

by Ian

Bracketology is both the art and the science of looking at the resumes of 70+ teams and deciding which teams should be “in” and “out” of the field, not based on what I think, but based on the historical trends of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. Predicting what the Committee will do is often a difficult venture but that’s the fun and the challenge. I’ll be updating my bracket projection at least once a week from here until Selection Sunday and including some analytical posts delving deeper into the science of Bracketology.

For starters, check out the Bracketology 101 post to give some baseline for how the Committee develops the bracket.

Here is my latest bracket projection of the 2022-2023 College Basketball Season. Once again, I will be taking part in The Bracket Matrix‘s annual bracket competition where I am ranked in the Top 100 in the nation.

Projected Seed List

Bracket Date: 3/12/2023 – FINAL

Highest remaining seeds in conference tournaments are projected as auto-bids and are listed in bold. Teams in bold red have clinched the automatic bid from their conference. The last 4 in teams that play in the “First Four” play-in games are listed in italics.

1 seeds: Alabama, Houston, Kansas, Purdue
2 seeds: UCLA, Texas, Arizona, Baylor
3 seeds:  Gonzaga, Marquette, Kansas St, Tennessee
4 seeds: Xavier, UConn, Indiana, Iowa St
5 seeds: Virginia, Texas A&M, Duke, St. Mary’s
6 seeds:  San Diego St, Miami, TCU, Missouri
7 seeds: Michigan St, Kentucky, Northwestern, Creighton
8 seeds: FAU, Arkansas, Maryland, Auburn
9 seeds:
 West Virginia, Penn St, Iowa, Memphis
10 seeds: Illinois, Boise St, USC, Utah St
11 seeds: Mississippi St, Providence, Rutgers, NC State, Pitt, Arizona St
12 seeds: Charleston, Drake, Oral Roberts, VCU
13 seeds: Kent StLouisianaIona, UC Santa Barbara
14 seeds: Kennesaw StFurman, Grand Canyon, Vermont

15 seeds: Princeton, Montana St, UNC Asheville, Colgate
16 seeds: Northern Kentucky, Howard, Texas A&M-CC, SEMO, Fairleigh Dickinson, Texas Southern

The Bubble

Last 4 Byes: USC, Utah St, Mississippi St, Providence

Last 4 IN: Rutgers, NC State, Pitt, Arizona St

First 4 OUT: Oklahoma St, Nevada, Vanderbilt, North Carolina

Next 3 OUT: Wisconsin, Clemson, Oregon

Others Considered: North Texas, New Mexico, Michigan, Virginia Tech, Liberty

NIT Bubble: Cincinnati, Colorado, Washington St, Villanova, Seton Hall, Utah, UAB, UCF, Dayton, Wake Forest, Marshall, BYU

NIT Auto-Bids (11): Morehead St (OVC), Bradley (MVC), Southern Miss (Sun Belt), Eastern Washington (Big Sky), Hofstra (CAA), Youngstown St (Horizon), Alcorn St (SWAC), UC Irvine (Big West), Utah Valley (WAC), Toledo (MAC), Yale (Ivy)

Bids By Conference

Big Ten – 9, SEC – 8, Big XII – 8, Big East – 5,  ACC – 5, Mountain West – 3, Pac 12 – 3, WCC – 2, American – 2