Home Bracketology 2023 NCAA Champ Week Preview: Mid-Majors

2023 NCAA Champ Week Preview: Mid-Majors

by Ian

The college basketball regular season has officially concluded. A number of conferences that held tournaments last week have already handed out their automatic bids to the Big Dance. This week, the rest of the mid-majors along with the major conferences will conduct their tournaments. A separate post will cover the major conferences where a number of teams are also fighting for at-large bids. Of the 11 mid-major leagues conducting their tournaments this week, only the Mountain West and Conference USA have the potential for At-Large bids. The remaining 9 conferences will send just one team to the Dance, but several of them have pulled upsets in past years and are worth watching.

As conference tournament play heats up, make sure to bookmark our Conference Tournament Tracker to follow along with who has secured automatic bids.

Additionally, I’ll be updating my Bracket Projection much more frequently as we move closer to Selection Sunday.

America East

March 4, 7, 11
Higher seed hosts game

Top Seeds: Vermont, UMass Lowell

Sleeper: Binghamton

Tournament Format: Top 8 teams qualify for the tournament. Pairings are re-seeded each round so that the highest advancing seed plays the lowest advancing seed.

Recent History: In 2018 UMBC won the America East Championship on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer to upset top-seeded Vermont. The Terriers then went on to become the first 16-seed to defeat a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament when they topped Virginia in epic and hilarious fashion. Vermont reached four of the last five America East Championship Games. The Catamounts got revenge on UMBC in the title game in 2019. Hartford won the America East tournament in 2021 to reach the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history. Defending champions Vermont have reached 5 of the last 6 title games while UMBC has reached 3 of the last 4.

Preview: Vermont is once again the top seed in the America East Tournament. The Catamounts won the league by 3 games and ended the season on a 12-game winning streak. Vermont has been propelled by their guard play with their backcourt trio of Dylan Penn, Finn Sullivan and Aaron Deloney all averaging over 10 points per game. Second-seeded UMass Lowell was the second-highest scoring team (78.7 PPG) and best defensive squad (65.8 PAPG) and could be a threat to Vermont’s reign atop the conference. Lowell is also the best 3-point shooting team (38.1%) thought Vermont attempts (and makes) more on a per-game basis.

Atlantic 10

March 7-12
Brooklyn, NY

Top Seeds: VCU, Dayton

Sleeper: St Louis

Tournament Format: All 15 teams qualify. The top 4 receive byes to the quarterfinals. The bottom 4 play in play-in games.

Recent History: The A-10 has been one of the most successful mid-major leagues at earning At-Large bids. Part of this is because the top seed has only won the tournament twice in the last decade, including last season when 6-seed Richmond won the title. Strangely, the most successful teams have come from the 4-seed, winning 5 of the last 13 titles. While the top seeds have not had a lot of success, the winner has generally come from the top four seeds. Only 3 times in the last 15 years has the A-10 winner come from outside the top four seeds (including Richmond last year and St Louis in 2019 who both won from the 6-seed).

Preview: VCU won the regular season title by 3 games over the trio of Dayton, Fordham, and St Louis. The middle of the A-10 pack was tight as only 2 games separated 2nd place from 7th place. The story of the year were two perennial bottom-dwellers Fordham and Duquesne rising to competitiveness. Both surpassed the 20-win mark this season, the first time since 1991 for Fordham. Duquesne was just 1-16 in the A-10 last year but rose to 6th place this year thanks to the best 3-point shooting in the league. George Washington was a team of extreme parity – tops in the league in scoring (76.3 PPG) while simultaneously having the worst defense (76.4 PAPG). Dayton (60.8 PAPG) and VCU (63.0 PAPG) were the best defensive teams in the league while St. Louis topped the conference in rebounding. VCU’s defense ranked in the Top 25 in the nation in defensive efficiency, making them a dangerous team if they can find a way into the Big Dance. GW’s James Bishop led the A-10 in scoring (21.5 PPG). VCU’s Ace Baldwin was named the conference Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year, finishing the season with 12.6 PPG, 5.8 APG, and 2.5 SPG.

 

Big West

March 7, 9-11
Henderson, NV

Top Seeds: UC Irvine, UC Santa Barbara

Sleeper: Long Beach State

Tournament Format: Top 10 teams qualify with the bottom 4 playing in first round play-in games. UC San Diego is ineligible for the postseason due to their transition from D-II.

Recent History: The Big West has the most parity of any conference in basketball. In the last 14 tournaments, 9 different teams have won the league’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. The only teams to win it more than once were UC Santa Barbara (who won back-to-back in 2010 and 2011 then again in 2021), UC Irvine (who won in 2015 and 2019), and defending champs Cal State Fullerton (2018 and 2022). The only current school in the conference that has not made the NCAA Tournament in the last decade is UC-Riverside, who had their best season yet, entering the tournament as the #3 seed. Despite the parity in champions, the Big West has not been rife with upsets. One of the top 3 seeds has won 8 of the last 10 tournaments with the #1 seed reaching the finals in 5 of the last 6 tournaments.

Preview: The Big West might be one of the deepest conferences in the nation. The top seven teams all finished above .500 overall and only two games separated 1st from 5th place. Top-seeded UC Irvine has reached the finals in 5 of the last 7 Big West tournaments but only been to the NCAA Tournament twice in that span. Long Beach State is the highest-scoring team in the conference (76.8 PPG) and the best rebounding team (41 RPG) while Hawaii has the stingiest defense (61.8 PAPG). Top-seeded UC Irvine is the best 3-point shooting team (37.5%) while UC Riverside lives and dies by the long ball, averaging the most attempts and makes per game from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, Cal State Fullerton finished the season as the hottest team in the conference, winning their last 6 games. UC Davis’ Elijah Pepper led the league in scoring (22.5 PPG). Long Beach State’s pair of big men from Cote d’Ivoire Lassina Traore (10.6 RPG) and Aboubacar Traore (8.9 RPG) pace the conference in rebounding (and are surprisingly not related!) All in all, this is a wide open tournament that any team seems capable of winning as every team in the Big West has their strengths.

Conference USA

March 8-11
Frisco, TX

Top Seeds: FAU, North Texas

Sleeper: Middle Tennessee

Tournament Format: All 11 teams make the tournament. The bottom 6 teams play in first round play-in games.

Recent History: The first round bye has always provided a massive advantage in the C-USA tournament. The eventual tournament champion has come from the top 4 seeds in 12 of the last 14 years including 9 straight before 2021 when North Texas won from the 6th seed. However, the top seed has failed to win the tournament in 6 of the last 8 years. Old Dominion winning from the top seed in 2019 was the first time since Memphis left for the AAC in 2013. The Conference USA Champion has won first round games in the last three of the last five NCAA Tournaments. Middle Tennessee St upset #2 seed Michigan St in 2016 and #5 seed Minnesota in 2017 then Marshall defeated #4 seed Wichita St in 2018. In 2021, North Texas upset #4 seed Purdue.

Preview: Conference USA could be a multi-bid league this year. Florida Atlantic put together a historic 28-3 regular season and will likely find themselves in the middle of the NCAA Tournament bracket (around the 7-10 seed range). If FAU is upset in the C-USA tournament, they are in solid position for an at-large bid and there will be multiple C-USA teams in the Big Dance. There are a handful of capable squads between North Texas, defending champions UAB, and Middle Tennessee. UAB (82.2 PPG) leads the conference in scoring while the slow-paced North Texas has the stingiest defense (55.4 PAPG). FAU ranks in the top 3 in C-USA in both offense (79.3 PPG) and defense (65.7 PAPG). The Owls offense has been on fire of late, scoring 90+ points in 4 of their last 7 games (including 100+ twice). FAU’s strength is their depth where they have 9 players that average over 15 minutes per game. UAB’s Jordan Walker (23.2 PPG) led C-USA in scoring and 3-pointers made averaging over 4 per game.

Ivy

March 11-12
Princeton, NJ

Top Seeds: Yale, Princeton

Sleeper: Cornell

Tournament Format: Top four teams qualify for the tournament.

Recent History: The Ivy League was the last holdout from having a conference tournament and held their inaugural four-team tournament in 2017. This is the fifth year of the Ivy League having an official tournament (after the 2020 and 2021 tournaments were canceled). Yale is the two-time defending champions, having won the tournament in 2019 and 2022. Yale, and Penn have appeared in all four tournaments. Harvard qualified for the first four tournaments but has missed the last two. Princeton’s only miss was in 2018. Cornell is the only other team to appear in the Ivy tournament but has yet to reach a Championship Game.

Preview: Yale edged Princeton for the regular season title thanks to a head-to-head sweep. The Bulldogs rank in the Top 75 in the nation in both offensive and defensive efficiency and are the presumptive favorites. Penn’s Jordan Dingle (23.6 PPG) was the second-highest scorer in the entire nation this season. One semifinal will match Yale’s league-leading defense (62.7 PAPG) against Cornell’s league-leading offense (82.5 PPG). The other will match archrivals Princeton and Penn. Penn was the best 3-point shooting team in the Ivy while Princeton had the best 3-point shooting defense.

MAC

March 9-11
Cleveland, OH

Top Seeds: Toledo, Kent St

Sleeper: Ohio

Tournament Format: The top 8 teams qualify and play in a normal bracket

Recent History: Top seeds have not fared well in the MAC Tournament. In the last 13 years, the #1 seed has only reached the NCAA Tournament 4 times. Buffalo has won 4 of the last 7 automatic bids. The Bulls won first round games in the NCAA Tournament in 2018 and 2019, upsetting #4 seed Arizona by 21 points in 2018 then earning a #6 seed and beating 11th-seeded Arizona St in 2019. In 2021, Ohio upset #4 seed Virginia to make three straight first round victories for the MAC Champions.

Preview: This should be an awesome tournament as FOUR teams in the MAC won 20+ games this season. Toledo won the regular season title for the second straight year and ended the season on a 15-game winning streak. The Rockets have lived up to their name with one of the fastest-tempoed offenses in the nation as well as one of the most efficient offenses. Toledo averages 85.7 points per game, the second-highest mark in the nation. Toledo is also the best 3-point shooting team in the league, averaging over 40% from deep. Defending champions Akron average 9 3-pointers per game, the most in the MAC. Ohio, Buffalo, and Ball State all average over 76 points per game which means the MAC should be one of the highest-scoring conference tournaments during Champ Week. Computer metrics like Kent State thanks to their stout defense (65.4 points against per game). Akron’s Xavier Castaneda (21.4 PPG) leads the MAC in scoring while Toledo has a trio of players that finished in the top 10 in the league – RayJ Dennis (19.4 PPG, 5.9 APG), JT Shumate (16.5 PPG, 1.2 BPG), and Setric Millner (15.9 PPG). Ohio is second in the league in scoring, 3-point shooting, and offensive rebounds. The Bobcats could be a dangerous squad if they get hot from deep.

MAAC

March 8-12
Atlantic City, NJ

Top Seeds: Iona, Rider

Sleeper: Siena

Tournament Format: All 11 teams qualify. The bottom 6 play in three play-in games followed by a normal bracket.

Recent History:  Iona has owned the MAAC Tournament in recent years. The Gaels won 5 straight MAAC Tournament titles and appeared in 8 consecutive championship games before they were upset by Rider in the quarterfinals last year. That paved the way for 2nd-seeded Saint Peter’s to go on a historic run. The Peacocks won the MAAC title then upset Kentucky, Murray St, and Purdue in a magical run to the Elite 8 of the NCAA Tournament.

Preview: The powerhouse that is Iona is the top seed in this year’s tournament once again. The Gaels with Rick Pitino at the helm won the regular season title by four games over Rider. If you’re looking for a good story to root for, 3rd-seeded Quinnipiac (the best 3-point shooting team in the MAAC) has never made the NCAA Tournament. Iona led the MAAC in scoring (76.6 PPG) and ranked in the Top 100 in the nation in offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and tempo. The Gaels are led by a trio of players averaging over 15 points per game (Walter Clayton, Nelly Joseph, and Daniss Jenkins). Niagara’s Noah Thomasson (19.7 PPG) led the MAAC in scoring. Of the Iona trio, Joseph was second in the MAAC in rebounding and blocks while Jenkins led the MAAC in assists and Clayton was second in the MAAC in steals. Defending champions Saint Peter’s struggled offensively this season but did lead the league in defense.

MEAC

March 8-11
Norfolk, VA

Top Seeds: Howard, NC Central

Sleeper: UMES

Tournament Format: All 8 teams qualify and play in a normal bracket

Recent History: North Carolina Central won three straight MEAC tournaments before COVID cancelled the 2020 iteration. In the last 14 years, the MEAC Tournament has either been won by a favorite (8 times by the #1 or #2 seed) or a massive upset (4 times by the #6 or #7 seed). Norfolk State ended NC Central’s run in 2021, marking the first time since 2013 that NC Central or Hampton did not win the league title. The Spartans repeated as league champions last year, defeating 7th-seeded Coppin State to ward off one of those aforementioned massive upsets. While generally thought of as one of the lower-tier mid-major leagues, the MEAC has produced 3 of the biggest NCAA Tournament upsets in the last 25 years (Coppin St over South Carolina in 1997, Hampton over Iowa St in 2001, and Norfolk St over Missouri in 2012). The MEAC owns 3 of the 8 15-over-2 upsets in NCAA Tournament history.

Preview: The MEAC has seen a number of schools depart over the last few seasons and is now down to just 8 teams. The MEAC champion has received a 16-seed in every Tournament since 2014. Norfolk State is the two-time defending champs and returned conference player of the year and two-time tournament MVP Joe Bryant. Bryant was edged out by Coppin State’s Sam Sessoms (20.7 PPG) for the MEAC scoring title but Norfolk St was still the highest-scoring team in the league (76.4 PPG). NC Central had the MEAC’s best defense, holding opponents under 66 points per game. Top-seeded Howard relied heavily on the 3-ball as they were the best 3-point shooting team in the league. Maryland Eastern Shore will hope to ride a solid defense to their first NCAA Tournament berth in school history. NC Central has won the MEAC Tournament from a number of different seed lines and should never be counted out.

Mountain West

March 8-11
Las Vegas, NV

Top Seeds: San Diego St, Boise St

Sleeper: San Jose St

Tournament Format: All 11 teams qualify. The bottom 6 teams play in three play-in games.

Recent History:  The Mountain West Tournament has not been kind to top seeds. In the last 15 tournaments, only four #1 seeds have won the tournament (including the last two years) while the #2 seed has won 8 times. San Diego State has been the most successful at navigating the bracket, reaching the championship game 12 times in the last 14 years. San Diego State has reached five straight Mountain West finals.

Preview: Eyes of all the bubble teams around the nation will be on the Mountain West Tournament. This will be a multi-bid league but the question is just how many bids the Mountain West will receive. San Diego State is the only team in the league that can be considered a lock. Boise State and Nevada are hanging around the right side of the bubble but precariously around the 10-seed line. Utah State has the computer metrics to be an NCAA Tournament team but has just one Quad 1 victory and 2 dreadful Quad 4 losses. New Mexico had a hot start to the season but faded down the stretch. One of the best turnaround stories in the nation is what Tim Miles has done at San Jose State. The Spartans were just 8-23 overall (1-17 in conference play) last year and flipped the script to a 19-12 finish and 10-8 record in the Mountain West to earn the #5 seed. Don’t sleep on a feisty UNLV team who could also make noise from the 7-seed in this deep field. Defense was the name of the game in the Mountain West, as the to 6 teams in the league were all within 3 points against per game in scoring defense. New Mexico was the highest-scoring team (81.2 PPG) with Utah St about 2 PPG behind. The Aggies also were the best 3-point shooting team, knocking down over 40% from distance. Boise St had the best defense, holding opponents under 64 points per game. New Mexico’s Jamal Mashburn Jr led the league in scoring (19.5 PPG).

SWAC

March 8-11
Birmingham, AL

Top Seeds: Alcorn St, Grambling St

Sleeper: Southern

Tournament Format: The top 8 teams qualify and play in a normal bracket.

Recent History: The top seed has won the SWAC in 5 of the last 10 tournaments. Since 1999, the only time the SWAC Champion did not receive a 16-seed in the NCAA Tournament was 2015 when Texas Southern got a 15-seed. Prairie View A&M won the SWAC title in 2019, which is the only time since 2012 that a team other than Texas Southern or Southern won the SWAC. Texas Southern is the two-time defending champions and have won 6 of the last 8 tournaments.

Preview: The SWAC expanded to 12 teams last year with the addition of Florida A&M and Bethune-Cookman, but only the top 8 make the tournament. Alcorn State is the top seed for the second straight season. Grambling St tied for the regular season title and is looking for their first trip to the NCAA Tournament in school history. It was a rough year for the SWAC in non-conference play and only Alcorn St and Grambling St enter the postseason with winning records overall. Southern is the only team in the league scoring over 70 points per game. Grambling far and away had the best defense, holding opponents under 62 points per game. The big difference could come at the free throw line where Alcorn St is one of the best in the league and Grambling is the worst.

WAC

March 7-11
Las Vegas, NV

Top Seeds: Sam Houston St, Utah Valley

Sleeper: Stephen F Austin

Tournament Format: The 12 postseason-eligible teams qualify for the WAC Tournament. The WAC has abandoned their non-traditional format and returned to a normal bracket. The top four seeds receive first round byes. Tarleton and Utah Tech are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament due to their transition period in D-1. Perennial powerhouse New Mexico State cancelled their season due to allegations against their coaching staff midway through the season.

Recent History: New Mexico State has won 9 of the last 12 WAC titles and appeared in 10 straight championship games, but that streak will come to an end this year with the Aggies season over. One of the top 3 seeds has won the last 13 WAC Tournaments. The WAC expanded to 13 teams last season with the addition of four schools from Texas – Stephen F Austin, Sam Houston St, Abilene Christian, and UT Arlington. SFA and Abilene Christian had won 6 of the last 7 Southland Conference titles before joining the WAC last year.

Preview: The addition of the Texas teams was a huge boon for the WAC. No longer is this conference solely dominated by New Mexico State. Now it is one of the deepest mid-major leagues in the nation. Only 3 games separated the top 6 teams. this year. Utah Valley won the regular season title with a 15-3 record but received the second seed behind Sam Houston St (who was 14-4 in conference play) due to the WAC using a computer-ranking metric to seed teams rather than overall record. Sam Houston and Utah Valley are a distinct contrast of styles. Utah Valley plays an up-tempo high-scoring game, averaging over 76 points per game. Meanwhile, Sam Houston plays a slow-paced lockdown defensive game, holding opponents under 59 points per game. Southern Utah is the league’s highest-scoring team (83 PPG). Utah Valley bigman Aziz Bandaogo was a double-double machine, averaging 114 PPG, 10.5 RPG and leading the WAC in blocks (2.9 BPG). While Bandaogo earned Defensive Player of the Year honors, Sam Houston’s Qua Grant won Player of the Year. Sam Houston is the league’s best 3-point shooting team. Don’t sleep on Stephen F Austin who can also knock it down from deep and has the league’s best field goal percentage.

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