Home Bracketology 2021 NCAA Tournament Preview: East Region

2021 NCAA Tournament Preview: East Region

by Ian

For the first time in TWO years we get to say these words: the 2021 NCAA Tournament is finally here! After being robbed of March Madness last year due to the pandemic, this year’s tournament has an extra special feel. This year’s tournament will be conducted entirely in the state of Indiana, mostly in gyms around Indianapolis. The 2021 NCAA Tournament also has a bit of a different format – the “First Four” play-in games will be on Thursday, the first round on Friday and Saturday, then the second round on Sunday and Monday.

Today we start our look at the first round matchups in the West Region. All of these games will be played on Saturday with second round games on Monday. Due to this, all of the “First Four” games are on the left side of the bracket – two in the West Region and two in the East Region.

Regional Previews
First Four
West Region
South Region
Midwest Region

1. Michigan vs 16. Mount St. Mary’s/Texas Southern

Saturday
3:00pm on CBS

Michigan won the Big Ten regular season title after starting the season 18-1. The Wolverines did end the season on a slight skid, losing 3 of their last 5. This dropped them to the #4 overall seed in the Tournament and landed them on the same side of the bracket as Gonzaga. The Wolverines rank in the Top 10 in the nation in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They also shot 38.7% from beyond the arc, ranking in the Top 15 in the country. In addition to their 3-point shooting prowess, Michigan gets a bulk of their scoring on the inside from forwards Hunter Dickinson (14.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG) and Isaiah Livers (13.1 PPG, 6.0 RPG). Small forward Franz Wagner (12.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG) is considered a first round NBA talent. The Mount St. Mary’s – Texas Southern matchup was previewed in the First Four Preview article. The Mount is led by dynamic guard Damian Chong Qui (15.1 PPG, 5.5 APG) while Texas Southern boasts a slew of big men and is one of the best rebounding teams in the country. Michael Weathers (16.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG) leads the Tigers in scoring with forwards John Walker III (12.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG) and Joirdon Karl Nicholas (11.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG) manning the front line.

8. LSU vs 9. St. Bonaventure

Saturday
1:45pm on TNT

LSU is coming off a run to the SEC semifinals where they lost by just 1 to Alabama. After losing 4 of 5 in late January, the Tigers turned it around and won 7 of their next 9 outings. LSU ranks in the Top 15 in the nation in scoring (82.1 PPG) and offensive efficiency. However, they have not been as stout on the defensive end and are the lowest-ranked team in defensive efficiency among the teams that received at-large bids. Cameron Thomas (22.6 PPG) is the nation’s fourth-leading scorer and leads LSU’s offensive attack. In addition to Thomas, the Tigers have a quality point guard in Ja’Vonte Smart (15.9 PPG, 4.0 APG, 1.3 SPG). In the frontcourt, Trendon Watford (16.7 PPG, 7.4 RPG) and Darius Days (11.7 PPG, 7.9 RPG) are an excellent tandem that will create matchup problems. St Bonaventure won the Atlantic 10 regular season and tournament titles, edging VCU in the Championship Game. The Bonnies play at a slow pace and rank in the Top 20 in the nation in defensive efficiency. This should make for a great matchup against LSU’s high-powered offense. St Bonaventure is not a vert deep team and relies on their starting five for nearly all of their minutes and scoring. All five of their starters average over 33 minutes per game and in double-digits in scoring. The Bonnies primarily play a 4-guard lineup and have to rebound as a team as Osun Osunniyi (10.5 PPG, 9.5 RPG) is the only forward that sees consistent time. In the backcourt, the Bonnies rely on Kyle Lofton (14.6 PPG, 5.5 APG), Jaren Holmes (13.6 PPG), Jalen Adaway (12.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG) and Dominick Welch (11.7 PPG, 6.1 RPG).

5. Colorado vs 12. Georgetown

Saturday
12:15pm on CBS

Colorado enters the tournament as the highest-seeded team from the Pac-12. The Buffs lost in the Pac-12 final to Oregon State, which sent the Beavers to the Dance. Colorado ranks in the Top 30 in the nation in both offensive and defensive efficiency but have been inconsistent all season. They swept USC and also beat Oregon but lost games against Utah, Washington, and California (in addition to their loss to Oregon State in the Pac-12 title game. Colorado does rank second in the nation in free throw shooting (82.2%), giving them an advantage down the stretch when they do have a lead. The Buffaloes have a solid frontcourt tandem of Jeriah Home (11.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG) and Evan Battey (10.2 PPG, 5.4 RPG). Their leading scorer is guard McKinley Wright IV (15.5 PPG, 5.6 APG). Georgetown stole a bid to the Tournament by ripping through the Big East Tournament from the #8 seed to earn the automatic bid. The Hoyas, coached by legend Patrick Ewing, did their coach proud with their performance at Madison Square Garden, including a thumping of Creighton by 25 points in the final. Georgetown started the year just 1-5 in conference play, but after a 2-week break due to COVID, bounced back to go 6-4 down the stretch before winning 4 games in 4 days at MSG. Georgetown is not a deep team but is one of the top rebounding squads in the nation (40.2 RPG). The Hoyas boast a frontcourt of Qudus Wahab (12.4 PPG, 8.0 RPG), Jamorko Pickett (12.3 PPG, 7.4 RPG) and Chudier Bile (10.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG). The front line of those three present matchup issues on the inside for most teams, while the dynamic Jahvon Blair (15.8 PPG) leads the Hoyas in scoring and Dante Harris won the Big East Tournament MVP after scoring in double figures in each of the last three games.

4. Florida St vs 13. UNC-Greensboro

Saturday
12:45pm on truTV

Florida State was a high-quality offensive team this year, ranking 10th in offensive efficiency and averaging nearly 79 points per game. The Noles had a handful of games cancelled due to COVID this year and have been inconsistent at times. They scored a big victory in mid-February with a 21-point pounding of Virginia, but turned around a few weeks later and lost to North Carolina and Notre Dame. They avenged the loss to North Carolina in the ACC semifinals before falling to Georgia Tech in the title game. The magic number for Florida State is 75 points. They are 15-0 in games where their opponent scores 75 or fewer and just 1-6 when their opponent tops 75 points with their only win coming in overtime against Wake Forest. Florida State has two NBA-caliber prospects on their roster in Scottie Barnes (11.0 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and RaiQuan Gray (12.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG). Leading scorer MJ Walker (13.0 PPG) is lethal from beyond the arc, shooting over 44% to lead a Florida State team that ranks 8th in the nation in 3-point shooting at 39%. On the other side, UNC-Greensboro won the SoCon regular season and conference tournament titles. The Spartans are a strong team on the inside, averaging 39.4 rebounds per game (ranking in the Top 40 in the nation). Greensboro’s strength is in their defense which held opponents under 68 points per game. They are led by Isaiah Miller (19.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG) who is the only Greensboro player that averages in double-figures.

6. BYU vs 11. Michigan St/UCLA

Saturday
9:40pm on CBS

BYU was a very solid team that unfortunately had to face Gonzaga three times this season. The Cougars ranked in the Top 40 in the nation in major offensive categories including scoring (78.7 PPG), rebounding (39.4 RPG), assists (16.6 APG), 3-point shooting (37.8%) and in both offensive and defensive efficiency. BYU’s primary offensive output comes from their backcourt with guards Alex Barcello (15.9 PPG, 4.5 APG) and Brandon Averette (11.5 PPG, 3.7 APG). Purdue transfer Matt Haarms (11.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG) anchors the inside for the Cougars. The Michigan State-UCLA matchup was previewed in the First Four Preview article. Sparty played their way into the field with wins over Illinois, Ohio State, and Michigan over the last few weeks of the season. Aaron Henry (15.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG) leads the frontcourt for Michigan State where the Spartans get most of their scoring. UCLA is a guard-heavy team with Johnny Juzang (14.0 PPG) leading the way.

3. Texas vs 14. Abilene Christian

Saturday
9:50pm on truTV

Texas won the Big XII Tournament for the first time ever. The Longhorns last conference tournament title was in the Southwest Conference in 1995. Texas has a guard-driven lineup, led by the trio of Andrew Jones (14.6 PPG), Matt Coleman III (13.3 PPG, 4.1 APG), and Courney Ramey (12.6 PPG, 4.0 APG). While the Longhorns have gotten most of their offensive production from their backcourt, they have two forwards with NBA potential in Greg Brown (9.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG) and Kai Jones (8.8 PPG, 4.9 RPG). This kind of offensive balance – with a high-scoring backcourt and an athletically gifted frontcourt – can be the recipe for success for a deep Tournament run. However, before you advance Texas deep into your bracket, consider that they drew one of the most dangerous mid-major conference champions in Abilene Christian. The Wildcats won the Southland with an up-tempo offense and stifling defense. Abilene would have been a trendy upset pick if they had landed on the 13-seed line or drawn someone other than Texas. The Wildcats can match up inside with Texas with forwards Kolton Kohl (12.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG) and Joe Pleasant (10.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG). Where Abilene excels is turning defense into offense. They rank 3rd in the nation in steals (9.93 SPG) and 4th in the nation in assists (18.2 APG). Point guard Reggie Miller (6.2 PPG, 4.0 APG, 2.0 SPG) is the catalyst of Abilene’s fast break offense.

7. UConn vs 10. Maryland

Saturday
7:10pm on CBS

UConn is back in the Big Dance and slotted as a #7 seed, which is where they were when they won their last National Title. This game has all the makings of a low-scoring affair. UConn and Maryland both rank among the 50 slowest teams in the nation and in the Top 30 in defensive efficiency. Slow paces and tight defenses is the recipe for a game in the low 60s. Prior to falling to Creighton in the Big East semifinals, UConn had won 7 of their last 8 to put themselves on the right side of the bubble. The Huskies have a bona fide NBA first rounder (and possibly lottery pick) in guard James Bouknight (19.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG). He is joined in the backcourt by RJ Cole (12.3 PPG, 4.4 APG) and Tyrese Martin (10.7 PPG, 7.3 RPG). Maryland is also a tough defensive team that started slow in Big Ten play (1-5) but won 5 in a row in the second half of February to elevate themselves onto the bubble. The Terps did drop 3 of their last 4, including games to Northwestern and Penn State. The Terps are led by the backcourt duo of Aric Ayala (14.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG) and Aaron Wiggins (14.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG) which should provide a good matchup on both ends against UConn’s guards.

2. Alabama vs 15. Iona

Saturday
4:00pm on TBS

It has been quite the year for the Crimson Tide athletic department. Fresh off winning the national title in football, Alabama won the SEC regular season and conference tournament titles in basketball. The Tide play at a fast tempo (9th in nation) and also have a stifling defense (ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency, behind only Loyola). Offensively they have put up nearly 80 points per game and average over 40 rebounds, both marks in the Top 35 in the nation. Alabama has lost just once in their last 9 games and is absolutely a threat to reach the Final Four. With the trio of Jaden Shackelford (14.2 PPG, 2.0 APG), Jahvon Quinerly (12.7 PPG, 3.0 APG) and John Petty Jr (12.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 2.0 APG) they have a backcourt that can take them deep into March. Up front, Herbert Jones (11.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG) anchors the inside. Other than Shackelford, all of their starters shoot at least 37% from beyond the arc making the Tide a dangerous team all over the floor. In the first round, Alabama draws Iona coached by legendary Rick Pitino. The Gaels overcame the MAAC’s odd tournament seeding (which was based on conference wins, not winning percentage) to earn their 5th straight trip to the NCAA Tournament. Iona was just 6-3 in MAAC play and while they had the second-best winning percentage, they were seeded 9th due to having just 6 wins. But the Gaels were not deterred and ran through the MAAC Tournament to claim the bid. If Iona is going to stun the Tide, they are going to need big performances out of their backcourt duo of Isaiah Ross (18.4 PPG) and Asante Gist (13.3 PPG, 3.7 APG). On the inside, freshman Nelly Junior Joseph (11.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG) is going to have to find a way to contain Herbert Jones or else this could get out of hand quickly.

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