For the first time in TWO years we get to say these words: the 2021 NCAA Tournament is finally here! After being robbed of March Madness last year due to the pandemic, this year’s tournament has an extra special feel. This year’s tournament will be conducted entirely in the state of Indiana, mostly in gyms around Indianapolis. The 2021 NCAA Tournament also has a bit of a different format – the “First Four” play-in games will be on Thursday, the first round on Friday and Saturday, then the second round on Sunday and Monday.
Today we start our look at the first round matchups in the South Region. All of these games will be played on Friday with second round games on Sunday.
Regional Previews
First Four
West Region
Midwest Region
East Region
1. Baylor vs 16. Hartford
Baylor rolled through the regular season, starting the year 18-0 and suffering just one regular season defeat en route to the Big XII title. They fell in the semis of the Big XII tournament to Oklahoma State and enter the Tournament with one of the top 5 teams in the nation in scoring (84.4 PPG) and offensive efficiency. In the past Baylor was known for their frontcourt players, but this year have been a guard-dominated lineup. The Bears top 5 scorers are all guards, led by Jared Butler (17.1 PPG< 4.8 APG), MaCio Teague (16.2 PPG) and Davion Mitchell (14.1 PPG). Baylor also leads the nation in 3-point shooting (41.8%) and is absolutely a threat to win the national title. Defensively, the Bears are opportunistic and average nearly 9 steals per game, the 11th best mark in the nation. Hartford won the America East Tournament from the #4 seed, beating 6th-seeded UMass Lowell in the final of an upset-heavy bracket. This is the first NCAA Tournament for the Hawks who are led by the guard tandem of Austin Williams (13.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG) and Traci Carter (11.7 PPG). Hartford is one of the lowest-scoring teams in the nation (65.9 PPG) which spells big trouble against a high-scoring outfit like Baylor.
8. North Carolina vs 9. Wisconsin
If you’re looking for a game that features a dramatic contrast in styles, this is it. North Carolina is one of the 50 fastest teams in the nation while Wisconsin is one of the 50 slowest. While North Carolina likes to get out and run in transition, this may be a difficult venture for the Tar Heels in this one as in addition to Wisconsin’s pace, the Badgers averaged the fewest turnovers per game in the nation. Both have relatively efficient offenses ranking in the Top 60 in efficiency and defenses that rank in the Top 20. Neither of these teams excel at shooting from beyond the arc, North Carolina does their damage with second-chance opportunities. The Heels ranked 3rd in the nation in rebounding (43.2 RPG) and are led by a frontcourt of Armando Bacot (12.2 PPG, 8.0 RPG), Garrison Brooks (10.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG), and Day’Ron Sharpe (9.7 PPG, 7.8 RPG). Wisconsin is not a great rebounding team and that may be where this game is decided. Micah Potter (12.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG) is going to have his work cut out for him against UNC’s frontcourt. Wisconsin will need a big game from D’Mitrik Trice (13.7 PPG, 4.0 APG) and to defensively stifle the Heels if they are going to right the ship after winning just 2 of their last 8 games.
5. Villanova vs 12. Winthrop
Looking for a first round upset? Look no further. Villanova has lost 2 in a row (to Providence and Georgetown) since point guard Collin Gillespie went down with a knee injury. Meanwhile, Winthrop has lost just once all season. The pace of play is going to be important here, as Villanova ranks among the slowest teams (320th out of 357 in possessions per game) and Winthrop among the fastest (11th). Winthrop ranks in the Top 35 in scoring (79.5 PPG) and rebounding (40.3 RPG). When the Eagles can play at their speed and tempo, they are tough to beat. Without Gillespie, Villanova will lean on their frontcourt of Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (15.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG) and Jermaine Samuels (11.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG) for production and to keep Winthrop off the glass. The Wildcats did recently get guard Justin Moore (12.6 PPG) back from injury. Winthrop will go 10 or 11 guys deep on their bench, and will be able to keep up the pressure and intensity. The Eagles are anchored by Big South Player of the Year Chandler Vaudrin who leads the team in scoring (12.2 PPG), rebounds (7.2 RPG), assists (6.9 APG), and steals (1.3 SPG).
4. Purdue vs 13. North Texas
Purdue was a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten school this season who finished in the Top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Boilermakers finished strong, winning 6 of their last 7 in conference play. Purdue is built on the tandem of forward Trevion Williams (15.6 PPG, 9.0 RPG) who had 10 double-doubles this season, and freshman guard Jaden Ivey (10.5 PPG) who has scored in double-figures in 6 straight games. North Texas reached the NCAA Tournament for the first time in a decade. Their Conference USA Tournament title was a sweet victory after they won the regular season title last year but the tournament was cancelled due to COVID. This year’s Mean Green team is a senior-heavy roster comprised of players who all returned from last year’s squad. Javion Hamlet (15.0 PPG, 4.5 APG) leads the way and fittingly delivered the dagger against Western Kentucky that sent North Texas to the Big Dance.
coulda told you that Hamlet was gonna kill somebody with a dagger at the end https://t.co/Svk0OULLF2
— Rodger Sherman (@rodger) March 14, 2021
North Texas is not a very deep team but in addition to Hamlet, three other starters average in double figures – James Reese, Zachary Simmons, and Thomas Bell. The Mean Green are tenacious on the defensive end, ranking in the Top 50 in defensive efficiency. In their run to the C-USA title, North Texas held all four opponents under 60 points, including their overtime win against top-seeded Western Kentucky. If North Texas is going to pull the upset, it will be by forcing Purdue into a low-scoring half-court game, where North Texas (one of the 10 slowest teams in the nation) is most comfortable. This matchup is a little reminiscent of the 2016 matchup where slow-paced Arkansas Little Rock took Purdue to double overtime and upset the Boilermakers. Also, North Texas’ team name is the “Mean Green” because of Steelers legend and North Texas alum Mean Joe Greene, which is all the incentive you should need to pick them as an upset special.
6. Texas Tech vs 11. Utah St
Texas Tech has been a bit of a hard team to gauge this season. The Red Raiders were the only team with double-digit losses to receive a seed higher than 8th, but none of those losses came outside the first Quadrant. Meanwhile, Utah State finished second in the Mountain West in the regular season and fell to San Diego State in the Championship Game. This game features teams with a dramatic difference in size and the team that can match up will ultimately have the edge. Texas Tech is a guard-heavy lineup – 7 of their top 8 scorers are guards, led by Mac McClung (15.7 PPG), Terrence Shannon Jr (12.7 PPG), Kevin McCullar (10.1 PPG) and Kyler Edwards (10.0 PPG). None of Texas Tech’s primary players are taller than 6’7″ (the only player on their roster taller is a little-used freshman). On the other side, Utah State has 7 players on their roster who are at least 6’8″, making the Aggies the tallest team in the nation. Not surprisingly, Utah State ranks 7th in the nation in rebounding (40.8 RPG) while Texas Tech ranks in the 200s. The Aggies are led by the frontcourt duo of Neemias Queta (15.1 PPG, 10.0 RPG) and Justin Bean (11.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG). Utah State should have the advantage on the glass, while Texas Tech will have to work to find open shots against the tall Aggies defense.
3. Arkansas vs 14. Colgate
Arkansas got off to a bit of a slow start in conference play, but turned it around in mid-January and won 12 straight SEC games to close out the regular season. Their only setback in that time was a loss to Oklahoma State in the SEC-Big XII Challenge. Arkansas has an explosive offense, stifling defense and plays with tempo. All in all, they are an extremely fun team to watch. The Razorbacks ranked in the Top 35 in the nation in scoring (82.4 PPG), rebounding (40.0 RPG), offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and tempo (possessions per game). Five of Arkansas’ top six scorers are guards. Moses Moody (17.4 PPG) leads the way in the backcourt with JD Notae (13.3 PPG) and Jalen Tate (10.4 PPG) also averaging in double-figures. Forward Justin Smith (13.0 PPG, 6.9 RPG) is the anchor on the inside. Colgate is a difficult team to gauge this year. The Raiders went 14-1 and won the Patriot League tournament, but did not play any non-conference opponents due to the Patriot League’s scheduling decisions. Additionally, they played a limited schedule against only half of the league due to the divisional pods that were created to limit travel. Colgate is also a high-scoring outfit, averaging 86.3 points per game and also ranking in the Top 25 in the nation in tempo. The Raiders are also a guard-heavy outfit, led by Jordan Burns (17.0 PPG, 5.4 APG), Jack Ferguson (12.6 PPG), Nelly Cummings (12.3 PPG), and Tucker Richardson (11.7 PPG). This has all the makings of a fast-paced up-and-down game. The one difference is that Colgate is a much better 3-point shooting team, ranking 3rd in the nation (40%). However, the Raiders have not faced a team ranked in the Top 100 all season, so this is certainly a step up in competition.
7. Florida vs 10. Virginia Tech
Both of these teams had a number of games cancelled due to COVID this season. Both teams also finished slow with Florida losing 3 of their last 4 and Virginia Tech losing 3 of their last 5 since beating Virginia at the end of January. Virginia Tech had 5 games cancelled in February and has only played 3 times since February 6. Florida ranks in the Top 40 in both offensive and defensive efficiency while Virginia Tech ranks in the mid-50s in both metrics. The Gators are led by the dynamic Tre Mann (16.0 PPG) and backcourt mates Tyree Appleby (11.4 PPG) and Noah Locke (10.4 PPG). Colin Castleton (12.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG) is the team’s leading rebounder. Virginia Tech has a better inside presence, led by Keve Aluma (15.6 PPG, 8.0 RPG) and Justyn Mutts (9.6 PPG, 6.5 RPG). On the outside, Tyrece Radford (11.9 PPG, 6.1 RPG) is the top guard.
2. Ohio St vs 15. Oral Roberts
Ohio State was one of the #1 seeds in the Committee’s initial bracket reveal but lost 4 in a row and slid behind Illinois, eventually falling to the Illini in overtime of the Big Ten Championship Game. The Buckeyes rank in the Top 5 in the nation in offensive efficiency but at times struggled on defense. Ohio State has a balanced offensive attack led by Duane Washington Jr (16.3 PPG) and EJ Liddell (15.9 PPG, 6.4 RPG). Ohio State will have to put forth their best defensive effort to stop the hot-shooting Oral Roberts. The Golden Eagles ran from the #4 seed in the Summit League to top South Dakota State and North Dakota State en route to winning the league title. This was the first time in a decade the automatic bid was not won by one of those two schools. Oral Roberts boasts the nation’s leading scorer in Max Abmas (24.2 PPG) along with a quality inside presence in Kevin Obanor (18.2 PPG, 9.5 RPG) who is a double-double threat every night. As a team, Oral Roberts is the top free-throw shooting team in the nation (82.4%) and ranks in the Top 10 in 3-point shooting (39.0%) and scoring (81.8 PPG).
