The season of college basketball Conference Tournaments are upon us! While the major conferences are wrapping up their regular seasons this week, some of the smaller conferences tip off their Conference Tournaments and the quest to earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament begins. Of the conferences starting tournaments this week, only a few have the opportunity to significantly impact the bubble picture. In the West Coast Conference, Gonzaga and St. Mary’s are solidly in the field. If any other team wins the WCC, they would be the only bid-stealer of the first week. The top two teams in the Missouri Valley – Indiana State and Drake – are both right on the edge of the bubble picture and one could potentially be a surprise inclusion into the Last Four In. Conference realignment in the smaller leagues has taken a toll on some of these conferences and a lot of the traditionally successful teams have moved up to larger leagues. That said, these are good tournaments to watch to find potential upset specials for the NCAA Tournament, like Fairleigh Dickinson who came out of the NEC last year to upset #1 seed Purdue.
As conference tournament play heats up, make sure to bookmark our Conference Tournament Tracker to follow along with who has secured automatic bids.
Additionally, I’ll be updating my Bracket Projection much more frequently as we move closer to Selection Sunday.
Atlantic Sun
March 4, 5, 7, 10
Higher seed hosts
Top Seeds: Eastern Kentucky, Stetson
Sleeper:
Tournament Format: The top 10 teams qualify for the tournament with the bottom four teams playing first-round play-in games. In the semifinals, the teams are re-seeded with the highest advancing seed facing the lowest seed. Both Bellarmine (who won the tournament in 2022) and Queens are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament due to their transition from D-II.
Recent History: Even though Bellarmine was ineligible for the NCAA Tournament in 2022, they were allowed to compete in the ASUN tournament and won the title. In a somewhat controversial move, regular season champion Jacksonville State was awarded the conference’s automatic bid, instead of the Jacksonville team that Bellarmine beat in the title game. Liberty had been a powerhouse since joining the ASUN in 2019, winning the conference tournament in three straight seasons from 2019-2021 and falling to Kennesaw State in the finals last year. The Flames stay in the ASUN was short-lived as they moved up to Conference USA this year. Before then, Florida Gulf Coast had appeared in 3 straight A-Sun championship games. The A-Sun Tournament has typically been played on home courts, which has played a role as 11 of the last 13 tournament champions were either the #1 or #2 seed.
Preview: Offense will be aplenty in the A-SUN tournament as four teams average over 80 points per game. Kennesaw State (82.8 PPG) led the way in scoring while Stetson had the best scoring margin. Austin Peay (71.0 PAPG) has the stingiest defense while Lipscomb is rated as the most efficient team on KenPom. Lipscomb and Austin Peay are the top 3-point shooting teams in the conference. Interestingly, none of these four teams enter the tournament as the top seed. Eastern Kentucky won the regular season title on the strength of their inside game led by Isaiah Cozart (15.6 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 3.9 BPG) who led the conference in rebounds and blocks. EKU leads the conference in rebounding, especially on the offensive end where they average 13 per game. Stetson’s trio of Jalen Blackmon (21.1 PPG), Stephan Swenson (6.2 APG, 1.6 SPG) and Aubin Gateretse (1.4 BPG) all rank in the top four in the conference in their respective categories. All in all, this figures to be a wide open tournament and the winner will likely find themselves playing in the First Four in Dayton as none of the teams are ranked in the top 150 of the NET.
Big Sky
March 9-13
Boise, ID
Top Seeds: Eastern Washington
Sleeper: Weber State
Tournament Format: All 10 teams qualify for the conference tournament. The bottom four teams play in first round play-in games, followed by a normal bracket.
Recent History: Prior to COVID, Montana and Weber State had dominated the Big Sky Tournaments. At least one of them appeared in 10 straight championship games before the 2020 tournament was cancelled, facing off four times for the league title. Since 2020 it has been Montana State that has paced the field, appearing in 3 straight finals and winning the last two Big Sky titles. The Big Sky has been very successful at getting their top teams to the Big Dance. Only once since 2006 has a team outside the top 2 seeds won the the automatic bid. In fact, the top seed has won 9 of the last 12 tournaments.
Preview: Eastern Washington’s up-tempo high-scoring offense flew to the regular season title and the top seed in the Big Sky. The Eagles are the top three-point shooting team in the league and could be a tough first round matchup in the NCAA Tournament if they’re able to win the Big Sky. Eastern Washington is the top-ranked team in KenPom’s efficiency ratings, with Weber State and Montana not far behind. EWU will have plenty of challengers in Northern Colorado (the highest-scoring team at 80 PPG) and Weber State’s tough defense that held opponents under 67 per game. Weber State’s Dillon Jones led the league in scoring (20.7 PPG), rebounding (10.0 RPG) and assists (5.3 APG). The top three teams in the Big Sky all rank in the Top 150 of the NET rankings, which could land them in the 14 or 15 seed range in the NCAA Tournament.
Big South
March 6, 8-10
Charlotte, NC
Top Seeds: High Point, UNC Asheville
Sleeper: Winthrop
Tournament Format: All 9 teams qualify for the conference tournament. The bottom two teams play a first round play-in game, followed by a normal bracket.
Recent History: Winthrop has been a dominant force in the Big South Conference for the last 23 years. Since 1999, the Eagles have won the league tournament 12 times and appeared in the championship game 16 times. Last year was the first time since 2019 Winthrop did not reach the title game. Prior to 2020, the Big South had been upset central with the top seed winning just 1 of the previous 7 tournaments. Since COVID, the top seed has won all three titles, though 7th seeded Campbell reached the finals last year. Other than Liberty’s shocking run from the 10-seed in 2013, 14 of the last 15 champions have come from the top four seeds.
Preview: High Point is one of the great stories in college basketball this season. The Panthers were just 6-12 in conference play last year. With a first-year head coach they won the conference title and went 13-3 in the league with an offense averaging over 85 points per game. Point guard Duke Miles (17.7 PPG, 3.6 APG) and Juslin Bodo Bodo (9.1 RPG, 1.8 BPG) have led the way for High Point, ranking in the top four in the conference in four statistical categories. If High Point has a weakness, it is on the defensive side of the ball where they allow the most points in the conference. UNC Asheville finished a game behind High Point and also averages over 80 points per game. The Bulldogs boast the league’s leading scorer and second-leading rebounder Drew Pember (20.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG). While High Point, Asheville, and Gardner-Webb want to play fast, Longwood and Winthrop both try to slow the game down and stretch out possessions. It should be no surprise those two are the stingiest defenses in the league with Longwood holding opponents to just 68 points per game.
Coastal
March 8-12
Washington, DC
Top Seeds: Charleston, Drexel
Sleeper: UNC Wilmington
Tournament Format: All 14 teams make the Tournament. The top four teams earn byes to the quarterfinals. The bottom four teams teams play play-in games in the opening round.
Recent History: Hofstra and Northeastern had been forces in the CAA over the decade prior to COVID. Northeastern has reached the title game five times and Hofstra three times, including head-to-head matchups in 2019 and 2020. Traditionally, the CAA was not a tournament where you are likely to find a massive upset. Before 2020, one of the top three seeds had won the league’s automatic bid in 19 straight seasons. But that trend has changed recently. In 2021 6-seed Drexel beat 8-seed Elon in the title game and in 2022 5th seeded Delaware won the title. Last year #2 seed Charleston topped #4 seed UNC Wilmington (who lost in the finals in back to back years).
Preview: The conference formerly known as the Colonial Athletic Association did a rebrand last summer after adding Hampton, Monmouth, Stony Brook, NC A&T, and Campbell to the ranks. The name was changed from the Colonial Athletic Association to the Coastal Athletic Association but the “CAA” logo and moniker remained the same. The middle of the pack in the CAA saw just 2 games separate #3 seed Hofstra from #8 seed Monmouth, which means anything could happen in the opening rounds. Regular season champions Charleston and two-time runner-up UNC Wilmington both have offenses averaging over 80 points per game. But Wilmington has a tough draw with defensive-minded Towson in the opening round. Charleston and Hofstra are both teams that live and die by the 3-point shot. This is a tournament that will have some scorers with three players averaging over 20 points per game – Hofstra’s Tyler Thomas (22.1 PPG), NC A&T’s Landon Glasper (20.9 PPG) and Monmouth’s Xander Rice (20.5 PPG).
Horizon
March 5, 7, 11, 12
Indianapolis
Top Seeds: Oakland, Youngstown State
Sleeper: Wright State
Tournament Format: All 11 teams with the bottom 6 teams playing in first round play-in games. The bracket is re-seeded each round so that the highest advancing seed faces the lowest advancing seed.
Recent History: In recent years, the Horizon League has been upset central. In 2016, despite the top two seeds getting byes to the semifinals, both of them lost as the #3 and #4 seeds played for the Championship. In 2017 the top three seeds all fell in their opening games and the semi-finals featured the #4, #6, #9 and #10 seeds. In 2018 2 of the top 3 seeds lost their openers and the semi-finals featured the #2, #4, #6, and #8 seeds. The 2020 tournament saw 4th-seeded UIC advance to the finals and in 2021 8th-seeded Milwaukee made a run to the semifinals. The #4 seed has won the title each of the last two years with Wright State topping #3 Northern Kentucky in 2022 and the Norse defeating Cleveland State for the title last year. Regardless of seed, those three teams have dominated the Horizon League tournaments of late. Northern Kentucky has reached the finals in 5 of the last 7 years, Wright State in 4 of the last 8, and Cleveland State in 3 of the last 6.
Preview: The Horizon was one of the closest leagues in the nation this year. Just four games separated the top eight teams. Oakland edged Youngstown State to win the regular season title. Wright State, Youngstown State, and Purdue Fort Wayne all averaged over 80 points per game. Wright State is also the top three-point shooting team. Green Bay has put together an incredible turnaround story after going just 3-29 last year. The Phoenix went 13-7 in the Horizon League and enter the tournament as the #3 seed with the stingiest defense, holding opponents under 68 points per game. This might be the most wide open tournament of the week as any team could emerge victorious and earn the automatic bid.
Missouri Valley
March 7-10
St. Louis, MO
Top Seeds: Indiana State, Drake
Sleeper: Northern Iowa
Tournament Format: 12 teams with the top 4 receiving first round byes to the quarterfinals.
Recent History: In 2018, Loyola-Chicago swept through the regular season and the conference tournament then became the darlings of the nation as they made a run to the Final Four from an 11-seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Ramblers won a number of close games with the charm of Sister Jean on the sidelines. In 2019 Loyola was the top-seeded team in the tournament but fell in the semifinals to fifth-seeded Bradley who then beat #6 seed Northern Iowa in the Arch Madness final. The 2020 Tournament lived up to the “Arch Madness” moniker as well as the top 3 seeds all fell in the quarterfinals. Bradley repeated as MVC Champions from the #4 seed. Loyola found their 2018 magic again in 2021, claiming the MVC title then upsetting #1 seed Illinois in the second round of the NCAA Tournament to reach the Sweet 16. Loyola won the tournament again in 2022 from the #4 seed in their final year in the MVC.
Preview: Arch Madness has lived up to its name as the top seed has only won two of the last eight tournaments. However, Bradley’s 2019 title was the only time since 2008 a team outside the top four seeds has claimed the automatic bid. Loyola has left the conference, but the MVC added Murray State and Belmont, former standouts of the Ohio Valley Conference. Both Indiana State and Drake enter the tournament as part of the bubble picture for the Big Dance. Both teams can light it up on the offensive end, averaging over 80 points per game. Don’t sleep on Bradley, who also ranks in the Top 70 of KenPom’s efficiency ratings. If you’re looking for a surprise team to make a run, slow-paced Southern Illinois, with MVC leading scorer Xavier Johnson (21.9 PPG, 6.1 APG) is a solid pick. Drake guard Tucker DeVries (21.7 PPG, 1.6 SPG) is a talented player on both ends of the floor. Indiana State has a well-rounded team with two of the top 5 rebounders (Jayson Kent and Robbie Avila) and two of the top three-point shooters (Isaiah Swope and Ryan Conwell) in the conference. The Sycamores are the top 3-point shooting team in the conference and could be a popular upset pick if they can get to the Big Dance.
Northeast
March 6, 9, 12
Higher seed hosts game
Top Seeds: Central Connecticut, Merrimack
Sleeper: Wagner
Tournament Format: Eight teams qualify for the tournament. Merrimack is finally eligible for the NCAA Tournament after transitioning from D-II. Le Moyne is ineligible due to their transition, but will compete in the conference tournament.
Recent History: Despite the NEC Tournament games being played on the home court of the higher seed, the top-seeded team has only won the league’s automatic bid three times in the last decade. Three schools have mostly dominated this conference over the last 15 years. Robert Morris won 4 in that timespan, but the Colonials departed for the Horizon League in 2021. Mount Saint Mary’s also won 4 titles but moved on to the MAAC this year. Long Island is the only remaining team from that dominant group, also claiming 4 NEC titles in that span. Farleigh Dickinson has won two titles during that span but earned 3 NCAA Tournament bids after Merrimack’s ineligibility last year.
Preview: The NEC made a name for themselves last year when 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson won a play-in game then defeated #1 seed Purdue in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. Interestingly, FDU did not win the NEC tournament title. Merrimack is the defending champions but the Warriors were ineligible for the Big Dance last year due to their transitional time from D-II. So the league’s automatic bid went to FDU who lost to Merrimack in the finals and the rest is history. Merrimack, led by NEC leading scorer Jordan Derkack (17.7 PPG), tied for the league title this year and are finally eligible to make the NCAA Tournament, should they repeat as NEC tournament champions. Merrimack and Central Connecticut tied atop the league standings. FDU enters the tournament as the highest-scoring team (76.4 PPG) and Sacred Heart is the best 3-point shooting squad. Wagner has the toughest defense.
Ohio Valley
March 6-9
Evansville, IN
Top Seeds: Little Rock, UT Martin
Sleeper: SIU-Edwardsville
Tournament Format: The 8 teams eligible for the NCAA Tournament. The top two seeds are given double-byes to the semifinals. The #3 and #4 seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals.
Recent History: Belmont and Murray State had been the dominant forces in the conference over the last decade. However, conference realignment decimated the Ohio Valley. Nearly all of the recent league champions have departed for greener pastures and the conference has had to adjust. The only remaining team that has previously claimed an Ohio Valley conference title in the last 25 years is Morehead State. Southeast Missouri State won the title from the #5 seed last year, the second time this decade a team has come from the opening round of play-in games to win the automatic bid.
Preview: Morehead State led the conference for much of the season, but lost 3 games in mid-February to fall into a 3-way tie with Little Rock and UT Martin at the top of the OVC. Because of head-to-head results, Morehead State fell to 3rd in the conference and will not get the double-bye to the semifinals. Those three squads are the presumptive favorites in the OVC. UT Martin (81.6 PPG), Little Rock (77.9 PPG), and Morehead State (75.3 PPG) are the highest-scoring teams in the OVC. Morehead St also boasts the league’s best defense. Watch out for UT Martin’s dynamic duo of Jordan Sears (21.2 PPG) and Jacob Crews (19.3 PPG) as the Skyhawks try to earn their first trip to the NCAA Tournament in school history.
Patriot
March 5, 7, 10, 12
Higher seed hosts game
Top Seeds: Colgate, Boston
Sleeper: Bucknell
Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom 4 playing in two play-in games followed by a normal bracket
Recent History: There was a significant changing of the guard in the Patriot League in 2019. In the 2010s, Bucknell was the dominant force, winning 8 regular season titles and reaching the Big Dance four times. The baton was passed to Colgate in 2019 when the Raiders topped the Bison in the Patriot League Championship Game. The 2020s has been Colgate’s dynasty as the Raiders have appeared in 4 straight NCAA Tournaments and reached the Patriot League title game in 6 consecutive seasons. The only one since 2019 they did not win was 2020, but because the NCAA Tournament was cancelled that season, their Dancing streak continues.
Preview: Colgate has solidified their status as the new powerhouse in the Patriot League. Colgate claimed their fifth regular season title in the last six years and has homecourt advantage for the Tournament. The Raiders finished 6 games ahead of the pack in the Patriot League. Behind Colgate, there was a 4-way tie for second between Boston, Lafayette, American, and Bucknell. Lafayette produced an incredible turnaround midseason after going just 1-12 in non-conference play. There is not a lot of offense in the Patriot League as only two teams (Lehigh and Colgate) averaged above 70 points per game. In fact, Colgate is the only Patriot League team ranked in the top 250 of KenPom’s efficiency rankings.
Southern
March 8-11
Asheville, NC
Top Seeds: Samford, UNC Greensboro
Sleeper: Wofford
Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom 4 playing in two play-in games followed by a normal bracket
Recent History: The SoCon Tournament has been dominated by the top seeds. In the last 16 years, no team seeded lower than 3rd has won the conference tournament and the top seed has won 12 times. In fact, the #1 seed has won the last five SoCon titles. Chattanooga and Furman have faced off in the Championship game each of the last two seasons.
Preview: Samford’s torrid offense blew through the SoCon this year, averaging an incredible 86.9 points per game. Furman and Chattanooga both averaged over 78 per game but were well behind the Bulldogs pace. Defensively, Western Carolina and ETSU were the hardest teams to score against. Samford and UNC Greensboro are two of the top three-point shooting teams in the nation, both knocking down about 40% of their deep shots. Western Carolina’s Vonterius Woolbright led the league in scoring (21.4 PPG), rebounding (12.1 RPG) and was second in assists (5.5 APG). Samford is looking for their first trip to the Big Dance in nearly two and a half decades, last winning the conference in 1999 and 2000. The Bulldogs have four players that average in double-figures and their strength is in their depth. They will go 10 or 11 players deep on the bench and they have 11 players that have attempted at least 30 3-pointers this year. Samford has shooters at every position and more to come in off the bench, with 7 guys shooting above 40% from deep.
Southland
March 10-13
Lake Charles, LA
Top Seeds: McNeese, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Sleeper: Southeastern Louisiana
Tournament Format: 8 teams qualify for the tournament. The top two seeds receive double-byes to the semifinals. The #3 and #4 seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals.
Recent History: The Southland recently lost four members to conference realignment (Abilene Christian, Central Arkansas, Sam Houston, Stephen F Austin). Those 4 had accounted for 6 of the last 8 Southland Tournament champions. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is the two-time defending champions since those teams departed. The top seed has only won the Southland once in the last five years, but the move to the abnormal bracket with the double byes a decade ago has helped the top seeds. No team seeded lower than 4th has won the Southland since 2011 when UTSA won from the 7-seed.
Preview: While Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is the two-time defending champions, the story of the league this year has been McNeese. The Cowboys have lost just once in league play and enter the postseason at 26-3 overall. Unfortunately their profile is not good enough to garner at-large consideration should they fall in the Southland tournament. McNeese gets it done on both ends of the floor, the rare combination of the best offense (79.9 PPG) and defense (61.1 points against per game) in the conference. The Cowboys are also the best 3-point shooting team in the conference. With the staggered tournament bracket, McNeese will get the double-bye to the semifinals and only need to win two games to get to the Big Dance.
Summit
March 8-12
Sioux Falls, SD
Top Seeds: South Dakota State, Kansas City
Sleeper: North Dakota State
Tournament Format: All 9 teams qualify for the conference tournament. The bottom two teams play in a first round play-in game, followed by a normal bracket. St. Thomas will participate in the tournament even though they are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament.
Recent History: Since 2012, South Dakota State and North Dakota State have dominated the Summit League. South Dakota State has won six titles (including three straight from 2016-18) and North Dakota State has won four, including back-to-back titles in 2019 and 2020. Additionally, North Dakota State has reached five straight championship games, but lost the last three in a row. Twice they fell to Max Abmas and Oral Roberts (in 2021 ORU went on to upset #2 Ohio State and eventually reach the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament). The winner of the 1-4 semifinal matchup has produced the last 7 Summit League Champions (with 1-seeds winning four and 4-seeds winning three).
Preview: This was not a great year in the Summit League. Two-time defending champions Oral Roberts saw their roster decimated by graduations and transfers and fell to 8th in the league. Perennial powerhouse South Dakota State won the league title over Kansas City and North Dakota. Denver guard Tommy Bruner led the league in scoring (24.5 PPG) and assists (4.4 APG) as the Pioneers were the highest-scoring team in the Summit (82.6 PPG). St Thomas, who is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament but will still compete in the Summit Tournament, had the toughest defense, the only team to hold opponents under 70 points per game. Kansas City finished the year on a 7-game winning streak to propel themselves to the #2 seed. The champion here seems almost guaranteed to find themselves on the 16-seed line.
Sun Belt
Mar 5, 7, 9-11
Pensacola, FL
Top Seeds: Appalachian St, James Madison
Sleeper: Southern Miss
Tournament Format: All 14 teams qualify. The bottom four teams play in first round play-in games. The top 4 teams receive byes to the quarterfinals.
Recent History: For a period in the early 2010s the Sun Belt Tournament was rife with upsets. From 2011-2017, 4 of the 7 tournament winners were seeded lower than 5th. Troy and Western Kentucky both won the “Fun Belt” from the 6th seed and teams have also claimed the title from the #7-seed and #9 seeds. From 2015-2019 one of the top two seeds claimed four of the five titles, but the “Fun Belt” returned in 2021 as 7-seed Appalachian State won the title. The Mountaineers won 3-point games in overtime in the quarterfinals and semifinals en route to the title game. The #8 seed has reached the title game in each of the last two seasons.
Preview: Louisiana has reached the finals in two straight years, losing to Georgia State in 2022 then beating South Alabama last year. This year’s Fun Belt is wide open. Appalachian State, behind a stifling defense that led the nation in blocked shots (6.8 BPG) won the regular season title. James Madison went undefeated in non-conference play and enters the tournament with a 28-3 overall record and the Sun Belt’s highest-scoring offense (84.6 PPG). However, James Madison’s record was bolstered by playing 20 games against Quad 4 opponents, leaving them as a long shot to get an At Large bid if they don’t win the automatic bid. JMU’s Terrence Edwards Jr (17.6 PPG) edged out Louisiana’s Kobe Julien (17.2 PPG) for the scoring title. If you’re looking for teams to come out of the middle of the bracket, Georgia Southern and Arkansas State both live and die by the 3-point shot and one of them could make a run if they get hot.
West Coast
March 7-9. 11-12
Las Vegas, NV
Top Seeds: St Mary’s, Gonzaga
Sleeper: Santa Clara
Tournament Format: 9 teams qualify for the tournament. The top two seeds receive byes to the semifinals while the #3 and #4 seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals. The #8 and #9 seed play in an opening play-in game with the winner facing the #5 seed.
Recent History: Gonzaga has dominated the West Coast Conference tournament, winning 12 of the last 15 titles. The last time Gonzaga did not appear in the Championship Game of the WCC Tournament was in 1997. Since the tournament moved to the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas in 2009, St. Mary’s has been the only other team to earn the league’s automatic bid. In fact, Gonzaga and St. Mary’s have faced off in 11 of the last 15 WCC title games.
Preview: St. Mary’s topped Gonzaga for the regular season conference title and the two teams split their head-to-head matchups. Both squads won on the road this season, with Gonzaga claiming the season finale on St. Mary’s floor. These two were clearly the class of the league and are both in line for At Large bids to the NCAA Tournament provided they are not upset in the WCC. The two teams are a dramatic contrast of styles. Gonzaga plays fast and scores a lot (85.6 PPG) while St. Mary’s plays at a snail’s pace and likes to lock it down defensively (58.5 points against per game). Since both top teams get double-byes to the semis, the likelihood of them being upset is relatively small. If you’re looking for an exciting player early in the tournament, Pepperdine’s Michael Ajayi (17.2 PPG, 9.5 RPG) was a double-double machine and led the conference in scoring. San Francisco is a team that rates highly in metrics but hasn’t put together any marquee wins that could garner themselves at large consideration.
