The season of college basketball Conference Tournaments are upon us! After the NCAA season slammed to a halt during conference tournaments in 2020, the tournaments returned last season and will be mostly back to normal this year. While the major conferences are wrapping up their regular seasons this week, some of the smaller conferences tip off their Conference Tournaments and the quest to earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament begins. Of the conferences starting tournaments this week, only a few have the opportunity to significantly impact the bubble picture. Gonzaga is solidly on the #1 seed line and in the conversation for the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. The West Coast Conference could be a four-bid league with St. Mary’s, San Francisco, and BYU all factoring into the bubble picture. In addition to the West Coast Conference, the Atlantic 10 and Missouri Valley Conferences could be multi-bid leagues.
As conference tournament play heats up, make sure to bookmark our Conference Tournament Tracker to follow along with who has secured automatic bids.
Additionally, I’ll be updating my Bracket Projection much more frequently as we move closer to Selection Sunday.
Atlantic Sun
March 1, 3, 5, 8
Jacksonville, FL
Top Seeds: Jacksonville St, Liberty
Sleeper: Florida Gulf Coast
Tournament Format: All 12 teams qualify for the tournament and are seeded by their finish within their respective divisions. The first and second place teams from the East and West receive first round byes. Bellarmine and North Alabama are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament due to their transition period from Division II but will compete in the ASUN Tournament.
Recent History: Liberty announced themselves on the Atlantic Sun stage by winning the conference tournament in their first season in 2019. The Flames upset top-seeded Lipscomb in the conference championship game then pulled a 5-12 upset of Mississippi State in the NCAA Tournament. Liberty repeated the feat and defeated Lipscomb in the 2020 Championship game and won their third straight title in 2021. Before then, Florida Gulf Coast had appeared in 3 straight A-Sun championship games. The A-Sun Tournament has typically been played on home courts, which has played a role as 10 of the last 11 tournament champions were either the #1 or #2 seed.
Preview: Liberty has won the last three conference tournaments and is one of the top seeds in this year’s tournament. Defending ASUN Player of the Year and Tournament MVP Darius McGhee led the conference in scoring (24.7 PPG) and was second in the nation. The Flames finished one game behind Jacksonville State (who closed the year on a 4-game winning streak) in the conference standings. Jacksonville, who is hosting the tournament, relied on a slow-paced attack (one of the slowest in the nation) and were the only team to hold opponents under 60 points per game. Both Jacksonville State and Liberty are excellent from outside the arc with both teams ranking in the Top 5 in the nation in three-point shooting at over 39%. Florida Gulf Coast is the top rebounding and scoring (77.6 PPG) team in the conference. If the hosting Jacksonville Dolphins are able to win the ASUN title, they would snap a 36-year NCAA Tournament drought, the 12th-longest drought in the nation.
Big South
March 2, 4-6
Charlotte, NC
Top Seeds: Longwood, Winthrop
Sleeper: UNC-Asheville
Tournament Format: All 12 teams qualify for the conference tournament. The two division winners receive the top two seeds and receive first round byes. The rest of the teams are seeded by conference record with the #3 and #4 seeds also receiving first round byes.
Recent History: Winthrop has been a dominant force in the Big South Conference for the last 22 years. Since 1999, the Eagles have won the league tournament 12 times and appeared in the championship game 15 times. Winthrop is the two-time defending Tournament champions. The Big South has been upset central over the last decade with the top-seeded team claiming the automatic bid only three times (including last year). Other than Liberty’s shocking run from the 10-seed in 2013, the other 9 champions in that time have all come from the top four seeds.
Preview: Something special is brewing in Farmville this year. Longwood joined Division I in 2004 and joined the Big South in 2012. This is the first time the Lancers have ever had a winning record in conference play and just the second time since 2004 they have had a winning record overall. Longwood is the top seed with a 15-1 conference record thanks to the highest-scoring offense (76.1 PPG) in the Big South. Two-time defending champs Winthrop finished just a game behind and is the top three-point shooting team in the conference. Campbell had the stingiest defense, holding opponents under 62 points per game.
Colonial
March 5-8
Washington, DC
Top Seeds: Towson, UNC-Wilmington
Sleeper: Hofstra
Tournament Format: 9 teams with the bottom 2 playing in a play-in game followed by a normal bracket. James Madison is ineligible for the tournament due to a postseason ban by the CAA as they transition to the Sun Belt Conference next year.
Recent History: Hofstra and Northeastern have been forces in the CAA over the last seven years. Northeastern has reached the title game four times and Hofstra three times, including head-to-head matchups in 2019 and 2020. The CAA is not a tournament where you are likely to find a massive upset. Before last season when 6-seed Drexel beat 8-seed Elon in the title game, one of the top three seeds had won the league’s automatic bid in 19 straight seasons.
Preview: Towson and Wilmington split their season series but Towson earned the top seed on a tiebreaker and will look to go dancing for the first time since 1991. The metrics are dramatically split on the top two teams in the CAA. Towson ranks 59th in the NCAA’s NET metric, between bubble teams Oregon and Belmont. While the Tigers don’t have an at-large worthy profile, they rank in the Top 70 in three other metrics (KPI, BPI, and KenPom) as well. Conversely, Wilmington ranks 188th in NET (three spots below Pitt) and below 180 in all three predictive metrics (BPI, KenPom, and Sagarin). However, in the postseason none of those rankings matter and given than Towson won at Wilmington by 2 then Wilmington returned the favor with an overtime win, this is shaping up to be an exciting tournament where anything can happen. Towson and Wilmington have the best defenses in the league while Charleston and Hofstra both average over 78 points per game on offense.
Horizon
March 1, 3, 7, 8
Indianapolis
Top Seeds: Cleveland St, Purdue Fort Wayne
Sleeper: Oakland
Tournament Format: 12 teams with the top 4 receiving byes to the quarterfinals. The bracket is re-seeded each round so that the highest advancing seed faces the lowest advancing seed.
Recent History: In recent years, the Horizon League has been upset central. In 2016, despite the top two seeds getting byes to the semifinals, both of them lost as the #3 and #4 seeds played for the Championship. In 2017 the top three seeds all fell in their opening games and the semi-finals featured the #4, #6, #9 and #10 seeds. In 2018 2 of the top 3 seeds lost their openers and the semi-finals featured the #2, #4, #6, and #8 seeds. The 2019 Tournament went nearly to chalk and had the top two teams in the Championship Game and the 2020 tournament saw 4th-seeded UIC advance to the finals. Last year 8th-seeded Milwaukee made a run to the semifinals.
Preview: The Horizon League has often produced some of the highest scorers in the nation and delivered once again this year. Detroit’s Antoine Davis (23.7 PPG) finished third in the nation. Oakland had two players finish in the top two in multiple categories. Jamal Cain (20.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG) led the Horizon in rebounding and was second in scoring while Jalen Moore led the league in assists (7.8 APG) and was second in steals (2.1 SPG). Top-seeded Cleveland State led the conference in scoring (76.3 PPG) with Oakland and Wright State less than a point behind. Considering the top three seeds (Cleveland State, Purdue-Fort Wayne, and Northern Kentucky) all dropped 6 games in conference play, the Tournament is wide open and anyone can get hot (well, maybe except IUPUI who reportedly has just 5 healthy players and was one of the worst teams in the nation this year).
Missouri Valley
March 3-6
St. Louis, MO
Top Seeds: Northern Iowa, Missouri State
Sleeper: Bradley
Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom 4 playing in two play-in games followed by a normal bracket
Recent History: In 2018, Loyola-Chicago swept through the regular season and the conference tournament then became the darlings of the nation as they made a run to the Final Four from an 11-seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Ramblers won a number of close games with the charm of Sister Jean on the sidelines. In 2019 Loyola was the top-seeded team in the tournament but fell in the semifinals to fifth-seeded Bradley who then beat #6 seed Northern Iowa in the Arch Madness final. The 2020 Tournament lived up to the “Arch Madness” moniker as well as the top 3 seeds all fell in the quarterfinals. Bradley repeated as MVC Champions from the #4 seed. Loyola found their 2018 magic again last season, claiming the MVC title then upsetting #1 seed Illinois in the second round of the NCAA Tournament to reach the Sweet 16. Loyola’s titles were the only times in the last 7 years the top seed won Arch Madness.
Preview: Absolute insanity befell the Missouri Valley Conference down the stretch. Loyola-Chicago ran out to a 5-0 start to conference play and looked to have the resume of an at-large contender should they falter in the MVC Tournament. However, since mid-January the Ramblers did not win more than two games in a row and fell in overtime to Northern Iowa in the regular season finale, dropping them from first to fourth in the conference tournament. Loyola now must face a Bradley team that they needed overtime to beat in January and who they lost to in February. Top seeds Northern Iowa and Missouri State got there with offense and free throw shooting where they led the league. Loyola topped the Missouri Valley in three-point shooting and was the second-best defensive team, holding opponents under 63 points per game. Missouri State’s tandem of Isiaih Mosley (20.0 PPG, 6.2 RPG) and Gaige Prim (16.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 1.2 BPG) ranked in the top 4 in the league in both scoring and rebounds.
Northeast
February 28, March 2, 5, 8
Higher seed hosts game
Top Seeds: Bryant, Wagner
Sleeper: Mount St. Mary’s
Tournament Format: Nine teams qualify for the tournament. The last two teams will play a first round play-in game followed by a normal bracket. Merrimack is ineligible due to their transition from Division II.
Recent History: Despite the NEC Tournament games being played on the home court of the higher seed, the top-seeded team has only won the league’s automatic bid twice in the last nine years. Three schools have mostly dominated this conference over the last 14 years. Robert Morris won 4 in that timespan, but the Colonials departed for the Horizon League last year. Long Island has also won 4 NEC titles and defending champions Mount Saint Mary’s has also won 4 times. The Mountaineers won from the #4 seed last year in a truncated four-team tournament. Farleigh Dickinson’s titles in 2016 and 2019 was the only instances of a different team going Dancing.
Preview: With Robert Morris gone, the traditional powerhouses (Long Island and Mount St Mary’s) are sitting as the 3 and 4 seeds this season. Top-seeded Bryant is looking for their first NCAA Tournament appearance in school history while second-seeded Wagner has only been Dancing once. Bryant led the league in scoring by an incredible 11 points, averaging 86.9 per game while Wagner was second ay 75.3. However, Bryant’s up-and-down style as one of the fastest teams in the nation also ranked the Bulldogs near the bottom of the league in defense (allowing 77.8 points per game). Mount St Mary’s remains dangerous with the best defense (62.0 points allowed per game) and three-point shooting (34.8%) in the conference. Bryant’s Peter Kiss (25.1 PPG) is the nation’s leading scorer and has a solid counterpart in Charles Pride (17.8 PPG, 8.3 RPG) who leads the NEC in rebounding.
Ohio Valley
March 2-5
Evansville, IN
Top Seeds: Murray St, Belmont
Sleeper: Morehead St
Tournament Format: Top 8 teams qualify. The top two seeds are given double-byes to the semifinals. The #3 and #4 seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals.
Recent History: Since joining the Ohio Valley Conference in the 2012-13 season, Belmont has dominated the regular season. Winning either the East Division title or Regular Season conference title every season except 2018. The Bruins have had a double-bye in the Tournament every year except 2015 but have only won the automatic bid three times in that span. In 2019, Belmont was rewarded with an At-Large bid after falling to Murray State in the OVC Championship Game. Belmont won the title in 2020 but fell in the title game to Morehead State last year.
Preview: If you like up-and-down fast-paced offensive action, you’ll love the Ohio Valley Tournament. This typically delivers as one of the most entertaining mid-major leagues and this year should be no different. Murray State raced through the OVC schedule with a perfect 18-0 mark in conference play. The Racers NCAA Tournament position looks pretty solid and they should be able to get an at-large bid should they falter in the OVC Tournament. Should the Racers win, they may be in the conversation around the 8 or 9 seed line and would be a dangerous second round opponent for a #1 seed. Second-place Belmont put together another impressive season with a 25-6 record but is slim on quality wins that would put them in strong bubble consideration for the NCAA Tournament. Murray State plays fast and efficient, ranking in the Top 50 in the nation in tempo, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency. Statistically the Racers led the league in defense (61.7 points against per game) and were just a shade behind Belmont in offense (79.3 PPG to Belmont’s 79.4 PPG). Murray State’s KJ Williams (18.2 PPG, 8.5 RPG) leads the league in scoring and is second in rebounding.
Patriot
March 1, 3, 6, 9
Higher seed hosts game
Top Seeds: Colgate, Navy
Sleeper: Loyola (MD)
Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom 4 playing in two play-in games followed by a normal bracket
Recent History: Bucknell has won 8 of the last 12 regular season titles but has only reached the Big Dance four times in that span. However, due to coaches continually being snatched up for bigger gigs, the Bison failed to claim at least a share of the regular season title each of the last two seasons (breaking a streak of 7 straight). Colgate has reached the finals in four straight seasons and won the title in 2019 and 2021.
Preview: Colgate looks like the new powerhouse in the Patriot League. The Raiders have won two of the last three tournaments and reached the finals in four straight. Colgate claimed their third regular season title in the last four years and has homecourt advantage for the Tournament where they are 11-1 against Patriot League foes this season. Colgate is the highest-scoring team (75.3 PPG) and best three-point shooting team (39.4% – the fifth-best in the nation) in the conference. Second-seeded Navy has not been to the NCAA Tournament in 24 years. The Midshipmen have the best defense (58.8 points against per game) but some of that is due to an incredibly slow tempo that also resulted in the second lowest-scoring offense.
Southern
March 4-7
Asheville, NC
Top Seeds: Chattanooga, Furman
Sleeper: UNC Greensboro
Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom 4 playing in two play-in games followed by a normal bracket
Recent History: The SoCon Tournament has been dominated by the top seeds. In the last 14 years, no team seeded lower than 3rd has won the conference tournament and the top seed has won 10 times. East Tennessee St and UNC Greensboro have each reached 4 of the last 6 SoCon title games and have claimed 4 of the last 5 titles with East Tennessee State winning twice and UNC Greensboro winning twice.
Preview: The SoCon can be a crazy league where a few of the teams on the bottom end put up high-scoring offensive statistics but are incredibly thin defensively. Five teams averaged over 75 points per game with frenetic-paced VMI leading the way at 79.5 per game. Chattanooga won the regular season title thanks to a stingy defense that allowed just 65 per game, slightly behind UNC-Greensboro’s mark of 64.7 per game. Chattanooga also boasted the conference’s leading scorer Malachi Smith (20.3 PPG). Second-seeded Furman (42 years) and fifth-seeded VMI (45 years) have two of the 10 longest NCAA Tournament droughts in the nation. Third-seeded Samford was nearly unbeatable at home this season (13-2 overall) but went just 2-7 on the road in SoCon play. Furman had one of the most efficient offenses in the nation which could carry the Paladins on a deep run. If VMI is going to snap their streak, they will need a monster tournament from Jake Stephens who ranks second in the conference in three different categories (19.3 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 2.0 BPG).
Summit
March 5-8
Sioux Falls, SD
Top Seeds: South Dakota St, Oral Roberts
Sleeper: North Dakota St
Tournament Format: Top 8 teams in a normal bracket
Recent History: Over the last decade, two teams have dominated the Summit League. South Dakota St won 5 titles (including three straight from 2016-2018) and North Dakota St won four, including back-to-back titles in 2019 and 2020. The two teams have met 3 times in the conference championship game over that span with South Dakota St appearing in 6 of the last 9 league title games. Their 9-year reign came to an end last season when Oral Roberts heroically won the semifinal and title games by 2 points each (over the aforementioned powerhouses South Dakota St and North Dakota St) then went on to upset #2 seed Ohio State in the NCAA Tournament and beat Florida in the second round to reach the Sweet 16 where they fell by just 2 to Arkansas. The 4-seed has been a popular seed for Summit League success. Oral Roberts won the title from the 4-seed last year, a feat also accomplished by NDSU in 2019 and SDSU in 2017.
Preview: Another year with the two Summit League powerhouses atop the standings. South Dakota State went a perfect 18-0 in conference play, followed by North Dakota State in second. Oral Roberts, who returned league-leading scorer Max Abmas (22.7 PPG) from their team that went to the Sweet 16 last year, finished third but is still a threat to make noise in the postseason. South Dakota State led the nation in three point shooting at an incredible 45.5%, more than 5% higher than the second-closest team. Their 87.2 points per game were second only to Gonzaga. Baylor Scheierman was the catalyst for the Jackrabbits, ranking in the Top 5 in the Summit League in four different categories (16.2 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.4 SPG). But Oral Roberts was also a top five offense in the nation (83.8 PPG). North Dakota State earned their spot with defense, holding opponents under 69 points per game. All in all, this should be an incredibly fun tournament where numerous teams play up-tempo offensive games and are capable of scoring in bunches.
Sun Belt
March 3, 5-7
Pensacola, FL
Top Seeds: Texas State, Appalachian State
Sleeper: South Alabama
Tournament Format: All 12 teams qualify with the top 4 teams byes to the quarterfinals.
Recent History: For a period in the early 2010s the Sun Belt Tournament was rife with upsets. From 2011-2017, 4 of the 7 tournament winners were seeded lower than 5th. Troy and Western Kentucky both won the “Fun Belt” from the 6th seed and teams have also claimed the title from the #7-seed and #9 seeds. From 2015-2019 one of the top two seeds claimed four of the five titles, but the “Fun Belt” returned last year as 7-seed Appalachian State won the title. The Mountaineers won 3-point games in overtime in the quarterfinals and semifinals en route to the title game, reaching the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2000.
Preview: Defense was the name of the game in the “Fun Belt” this season. Defending tournament champions Appalachain State, regular season champs Texas State, and South Alabama all held opponents under 63 points per game. Offensively, Coastal Carolina was the highest scoring team but averaged just a hair over 73 points per game. With points at such a premium, Texas State having the best three-point shooting (38.1%) and free throw shooting (76%) in the conference carried the Bobcats to the top seed. Watch out for Arkansas State’s Norchad Omier who finished in the Top 3 in the Sun Belt in scoring (17.2 PPG), rebounds (12.0 RPG), and blocks (2.1 BPG).
West Coast
March 3-5, 7-8
Las Vegas, NV
Top Seeds: Gonzaga, St Mary’s
Sleeper: Santa Clara
Tournament Format: 10 teams qualify for the tournament. The top two seeds receive byes to the semifinals while the #3 and #4 seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals. The 7th-10th seeds play in the first round with the winners advancing to play the #5 and #6 seed in the second round. The tournament does not have games scheduled on Sunday because BYU can not play games on Sundays.
Recent History: Gonzaga has dominated the West Coast Conference tournament, winning 10 of the last 13 titles. The last time Gonzaga did not appear in the Championship Game of the WCC Tournament was in 1997. Since the tournament moved to the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas in 2009, St. Mary’s has been the only other team to earn the league’s automatic bid. In fact, Gonzaga and St. Mary’s have faced off in 9 of the last 13 WCC title games.
Preview: Gonzaga once again dominated the WCC along with the rest of their schedule, but dropped their season finale at Saint Mary’s. Nevertheless, the Zags still rate atop the efficiency metrics and the human polls. Of all the conference tournaments this week, the West Coast Conference has the most on the line for at-large hopefuls. Gonzaga should find themselves on the 1-seed line and is in the conversation for the #1 overall seed in the Tournament. Saint Mary’s is solidly in the field and should land in the 6 or 7 seed range. BYU and San Francisco are both squarely on the bubble and the potential quarterfinal between the Cougars and Dons could be a bubble elimination game. San Francisco has not been Dancing for 24 years since 1998. Santa Clara rates well in efficiency and predictive metrics but doesn’t have the wins to back up an at-large profile, but the Broncos have the league’s leading scorer in Jalen Williams (17.9 PPG) and average an impressive 79 points per game. Gonzaga leads the nation in scoring (88.3 PPG) and has a loaded front line between forward Drew Timme (17.6 PPG) and freshman sensation Chet Holmgren (14.4 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 3.6 BPG). Portland has dramatically exceeded expectations this season and the Pilots could be a team to keep an eye on in the early rounds of the non-traditional WCC bracket.
