The Steelers are slated to pick 20th in this week’s NFL Draft. Last year, in the first season with Omar Khan running the draft room, the Steelers moved up in the first round to select Broderick Jones. Khan continued working the Draft board and executed another trade in the third round to move down and get a 4th round pick in return. Last year’s draft earned Khan the reputation for being an aggressive mover, and trading up or down could be on the table again this year, depending on how the top of the draft falls.
GM Omar Khan on trading down in the first round: ‘In my opinion, you never trade away from a good player. But if it's a situation where it makes sense, it's something we will look at.’
— Teresa Varley (@Teresa_Varley) April 22, 2024
Historical Trends
We have been tracking the defining characteristics of recent Steelers first round picks. Omar Khan continued many of the trends of his predecessor Kevin Colbert. Since 2004 all of the Steelers first and second round picks have come from power conferences. Additionally, 18 of Colbert’s 22 first round picks came from programs that finished ranked in the AP Top 25. Similarly, Broderick Jones came from the National Champion Georgia Bulldogs. Age was somewhat of a factor as only three first round picks since 2003 were older than 22 years old (though they broke that trend with Harris and Pickett selections). Since 2014 the Steelers have put heavy weight in athletic metrics (such as SPARQ and RAS).
Interestingly, the GM (Colbert and subsequently Khan) and Mike Tomlin had attended the Pro Day of the last 12 first round picks (Ziggy Hood in 2009 was the last one they did not attend). Omar Khan and Mike Tomlin did hit the Pro Day circuit this year but not as heavily as last year. While the duo attended seven Pro Days last year, they only went to Clemson, Georgia, Michigan, and Alabama this year. Additionally, assistant GM Andy Weidl went to two Pro Days last year and only to one (LSU) this year. Last year, the Steelers first FOUR selections of the draft were all players that came to Pittsburgh for a pre-draft visit.
With the draft only a few days away, here is a look at the ten prospects we feel are most likely to be the Steelers first round selection, based on those past trends and our own intuition.
Out of Range
There are a number of prospects at the top of the draft class that the Steelers have spent a minimal amount of time scouting. This starts with the four quarterbacks – Caleb Williams (USC), Jayden Daniels (LSU), Drake Maye (North Carolina), and JJ McCarthy (Michigan). Omar Khan specifically said in his Draft Week press conference the Steelers would not take a quarterback in the first round, but left it open to consideration in later rounds. Additionally, the Steelers have spent very little time scouting Ohio St WR Marvin Harrison Jr, LSU WR Malik Nabers, Washington WR Rome Odunze, Notre Dame OT Joe Alt, and Toledo CB Quinyon Mitchell. It can be safely assumed that these players are not among the likely group that the Steelers will draft, and with the possible exception of Mitchell will all be off the board in the Top 15 picks.
Trade Up Scenarios
Could the Steelers make another move UP the draft board to nab a falling player? Omar Khan has recognized the importance of building in the trenches. Players like Penn State OT Olu Fashanu and Texas DT Byron Murphy II have not been tied to Pittsburgh much during the pre-draft process and don’t have a lot of the classic “indicators” of a first round selection. However, if they get past 15th in the Draft, Khan may be tempted to make a move up the board for players of their talent. Georgia TE Brock Bowers looks the part of a talent in the mold of Travis Kelce and George Kittle and did have the Steelers brass at his Pro Day, but will likely be taken in the Top 15 of the Draft. Depending on how the draft falls, Khan could make a move up for one of the following players, our 10 most likely candidates to be picked by the Steelers.
Potential Selections: Tier 1 (Pro Day Attendance)
The Steelers potential draft choices can be broken into two groups. Those who had Omar Khan and Mike Tomlin in attendance at their Pro Day and those that came to Pittsburgh for Pre-Draft Visits. While the first category would continue the trend since 2010 of all the first rounders having Tomlin attend their Pro Day, with Tomlin only going to four this year the choices are more limited. This has opened up speculation that one of the Pre-Draft Visitors could be in the mix as well.
JC Latham (OT-Alabama)
Why the Steelers Will Draft Him: Nicknamed “The Trench King,” Latham is a road grader at right tackle. The Steelers had a full slate of attendees at Alabama’s Pro Day including Omar Khan, Mike Tomlin, and a handful of scouts. Latham anchored the right tackle position for the Tide the last two years with 27 starts. He has great size (6’5 1/2″ 342 pounds) and length (85″ wingspan). Latham is bigger and has longer arms than last year’s first round pick Broderick Jones, and he is only 21 years old so Alabama probably hasn’t worn all the tread off his tires. He is a mauler in the run game and has vice grips for hands. Once players get into his chest he is an immovable object and can swallow up pass rushers.
Why the Steelers Won’t Draft Him: Latham might be the 3rd tackle taken in this draft. There are a lot of tackle-needy teams in the mid-teens picking ahead of the Steelers. Depending on which teams are looking for a left tackle vs a right tackle, he could be long gone by the time the Steelers pick at 20.
Amarius Mims (OT-Georgia)
Why the Steelers Will Draft Him: Mims is a massive human being and a freak athlete for his size. At 6’7 1/2″ and 340 pounds, he has a wingspan of nearly 87 inches. Mims might also be the biggest hitter of the draft class, his tape routinely has clips of him knocking opposing players to the ground. He is physical but has the foot quickness to get out in front of outside runs or screens and can be a devastating downfield blocker. All of Mims’ game action at Georgia came at Right Tackle – the position where the Steelers have a need and he would be a perfect athletic bookend to Broderick Jones. Mims is also one of just two prospects who had Khan and Tomlin at his Pro Day AND came to Pittsburgh for a Pre-Draft visit.
Why the Steelers Won’t Draft Him: Potential is the name of the game for Amarius Mims. He only has 8 starts under his belt in college and is just 21 years old. He does have some injury history, missing time with an ankle injury last year and exiting the Combine early with a hamstring injury. Given his lack of experience and injury history in that short span, the Steelers could shy away from him as his draft projection is based mostly on his massive upside due to his frame.
Terrion Arnold (CB-Alabama)
Why the Steelers Will Draft Him: For some, Arnold is the #1 corner in this draft class. He has the versatility to play inside and outside and has a knack for finding the ball. Last season Arnold had 6.5 tackles for loss, 17 passes defended, and 5 interceptions. He is not afraid of helping against the run and would shadow receivers both outside or into the slot. He is a smart player with excellent footwork who doesn’t take plays off. The Steelers brass reportedly dined with Arnold and fellow corner Kool-Aid McKinstry before Alabama’s Pro Day.
Why the Steelers Won’t Draft Him: If Arnold is viewed by teams as the top corner in the draft class, he will be long gone before the 20th pick. If there is a knock on Arnold’s game, it’s that he lacks the top end speed (ran a 4.50 40-yard dash) to carry speedy receivers down the field. He is a physical player but can get overly physical to try to make up for his lack of long speed and can be prone to penalties.
Nate Wiggins (CB-Clemson)
Why the Steelers Will Draft Him: Wiggins (along with Amarius Mims) is one of just two prospects in this draft class who had Khan and Tomlin at his Pro Day AND came to Pittsburgh for a Pre-Draft visit. That alone should be a strong indicator of the Steelers interest in him. The secondary is incredibly thin right now with just Joey Porter Jr and Donte Jackson having NFL experience, so adding youth and depth in the draft is essential. Wiggins has blazing speed (4.28 40-yard dash) and has the size to add some weight to his slender frame. He returned two interceptions for touchdowns in his collegiate career and led Clemson in passes defended each of the last two seasons.
Why the Steelers Won’t Draft Him: There are some injury concerns with Wiggins as well. He is one of the youngest players in the draft (won’t turn 21 until August) but has missed time each of the last two years with a hip flexor and knee injuries. At the Combine, he pulled out after running his 40 with a groin injury. His speed is certainly an asset NFL teams will covet, but as the old saying goes “the best ability is availability” and the Steelers could shy away from Wiggins who has yet to play a full season.
Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB-Alabama)
Why the Steelers Will Draft Him: McKinstry is a solid, consistent player who can play either inside or outside. He is not afraid to stick his nose in against the run and tallied 5 TFLs and 2 sacks in his time with the tide. He is a strong technician and does not have a lot of wasted movements – and therefore is rarely out of position. McKinstry was a durable player, taking the field in all 42 games of the last 3 years with 22 starts at outside corner. He is a smart player with leadership traits and adept at getting his hands on the ball to knock it away. He plays under control and rarely has to make up ground against a receiver. The Steelers brass took McKinstry and Terrion Arnold out for dinner before Alabama’s Pro Day, where Tomlin, Khan, and defensive coordinator Teryl Austin were present.
Why the Steelers Won’t Draft Him: McKinstry did not work out at the Combine with a right foot injury but he was able to recover by his Pro Day where he ran a 4.47 40 yard dash but did not do agility drills. He lacks elite long speed but makes up for it with his technique. The one knock on him might be his hands – he had just two interceptions in college but had 25 passes defended over the last two years.
Potential Selections: Tier 2 (Pre-Draft Visitors)
The second tier of potential players the Steelers could pick in the first round are those that did not have Omar Khan or Mike Tomlin at their Pro Day, but did come to Pittsburgh for a pre-draft visit.
Troy Fautanu (OT-Washington)
Why the Steelers Will Draft Him: Fautanu played left tackle for Washington on their run to the National Championship Game. He is slightly undersized for what the Steelers typically look for in an offensive tackle, but has the positional versatility to move inside to either guard or center. Fautanu grew up idolizing Troy Polamalu and has impressive footwork and athleticism at the tackle spot. While he lacks the height, he has long arms (34.5″) that give him the range to seal the edge. He is well-rounded in both pass protection and as a run blocker with the athleticism to get out in front on running plays to clear the road. In addition to coming to Pittsburgh for a pre-draft visit, OL coach Pat Meyer attended his Pro Day.
Why the Steelers Won’t Draft Him: Fautanu reportedly has a knee issue that raised some red flags during the pre-draft process. If the Steelers believe it to be a degenerative condition they may have Fautanu further down their draft board than other teams. He is also one of the older tackles in this draft class at 23 years old while the Steelers tend to prefer using first round picks on younger players.
Taliese Fuaga (OT-Oregon State)
Why the Steelers Will Draft Him: Fuaga started the last two seasons at right tackle for Oregon State and was a team captain. He has a quick burst off the line and is physical at the point of attack. Fuaga relies heavily on his strong hands. He displays good balance and generally keeps the defender in front of him. In the run game he can maul defenders out of the way to create holes and has been lauded by coaches for his teamwork and reliability. He met with the Steelers at the Senior Bowl, OL Coach Pat Meyer attended Oregon State’s Pro Day and Fuaga came to Pittsburgh for a pre-draft visit.
Why the Steelers Won’t Draft Him: Fuaga is a bit under-sized for what the Steelers typically look for in a tackle. He has some of the shortest arms of the class (33″) and a wingspan under 81 inches. On tape, his range can be described as average and while he can get to the second level, he isn’t as nimble or quick as some of the other tackles in the class. His NFL future may be best suited at guard, a position where the Steelers have two entrenched starters.
Graham Barton (OL-Duke)
Why the Steelers Will Draft Him: Barton has been a trendy name connected with the Steelers since his pre-draft visit to Pittsburgh. He lit up his Pro Day with insane athletic testing numbers for a player his size (he broke the 5-second mark in the 40 at over 310 pounds). He has excellent play strength with strong hands. He has the foot quickness to get to the second level. Barton played left tackle the last three years for Duke, but given his size and arm length his NFL future is likely on the interior. He played Center for 5 games as a freshman so there is some speculation that he may go back to being a Center in the NFL – a position where the Steelers have a glaring need.
Why the Steelers Won’t Draft Him: While Barton has the quick feet to get to the second level, he has a propensity to let his upper body get ahead of himself and lunge towards targets. Even with his perceived positional versatility, it has been four years since he played Center and only has five games at the position. Barton would be a project to move into the middle, not a plug-and-play starter like some others at the position.
Jackson Powers-Johnson (C-Oregon)
Why the Steelers Will Draft Him: JPJ (not to be confused with the other JPJ on the Steelers roster) is the best pure center prospect in the draft class. He made the transition from guard this past season and won the Rimmington Award as the nation’s top center. Center is arguably the biggest position of need for the Steelers entering this draft, and while this may be considered a slight reach, there are some teams behind the Steelers that need interior lineman and would likely pounce on the ability to pick JPJ. He has a combination of athleticism and toughness to play on the inside with quick feet to be able to pull in front of running plays. OL Coach Pat Meyer attended Oregon’s Pro Day to get a look at JPJ, in addition to his pre-draft visit.
Why the Steelers Won’t Draft Him: Overall, this is a fairly deep center class and the Steelers may have other players rated higher than JPJ on their first round board. If they don’t take a center here, look for players like WVU’s Zach Frazier, Wisconsin’s Tanor Bortolini, or Georgia’s Sedrick Van Pran to be targets on Day 2. Arkansas’ Beaux Limmer and Penn State’s Hunter Nourzad are potential Day 3 fits.
Cooper DeJean (DB-Iowa)
Why the Steelers Will Draft Him: DeJean is a multi-talented athlete capable of playing anywhere in the defensive backfield. He was also a standout punt returner and active on coverage units for the Hawkeyes. He is a solid tackler whose best position may be at safety, but could also play as a slot corner or a boundary corner. DeJean is a threat any time he touches the ball and returned 3 interceptions for touchdowns in college. He played a lot of zone in college but his scheme versatility will make him an asset to any defensive backfield.
Why the Steelers Won’t Draft Him: DeJean suffered a leg injury late in the season and was still working through his recovery at the Combine so he did not work out. He did put on an impressive display at Iowa’s Pro Day but did not do agility drills. If there is a run on cornerbacks in this draft class (and there are some teams in need of help in the defensive backfield, DeJean could hear his name called before 20th overall.
Someone Else
Why the Steelers Will Draft Someone Else: Assistant GM Andy Weidl only attended one Pro Day this year – at LSU. While Tigers receiver Malik Nabers will almost certainly be a Top 10 pick, speedy WR Brian Thomas is considered by many to hear his name called in the 15-25 range and may be available for the Steelers. Other pre-draft visitors to Pittsburgh included Texas WR Adonai Mitchell, Oklahoma OT Tyler Guyton and WVU C Zach Frazier. These three are considered fringe first rounders and could be potential targets if the Steelers trade down out of pick #20. In a trade down scenario, it’s possible the Steelers could rely more heavily on their pre-draft visitors than on the Pro Day attendance of Tomlin and Khan.
Why the Steelers Won’t Draft Someone Else: There are 12 players that are likely out of the Steelers range in this draft. Additionally, there are 3-4 EDGE rushers that will likely be selected in the first round. Depending on how many Quarterbacks and EDGE rushers go in the Top 19 picks, the Steelers will have their choice from at least 2 or 3 of the players listed above. The one unknown factor is medical evaluations which could move players around the board due to factors unknown to the general public.
