The college basketball regular season has officially concluded. A number of conferences that held tournaments last week have already handed out their automatic bids to the Big Dance. This week, the rest of the mid-majors along with the major conferences will conduct their tournaments. A separate post will cover the major conferences where a number of teams are also fighting for at-large bids. Of the 13 mid-major leagues conducting their tournaments this week, only the A-10 and Mountain West have the potential for At-Large bids. The remaining 11 conferences will send just one team to the Dance, but several of them have pulled upsets in past years and are worth watching.
As conference tournament play heats up, make sure to bookmark our Conference Tournament Tracker to follow along with who has secured automatic bids.
Additionally, I’ll be updating my Bracket Projection daily as we move closer to Selection Sunday.
America East
March 6, 9, 12
Higher seed hosts game
Top Seeds: Vermont, UMBC
Sleeper: Hartford
Tournament Format: Top 8 teams qualify for the tournament and play in a normal bracket. Stony Brook is ineligible for the tournament due to their transition to the CAA next year.
Recent History: In 2018 UMBC won the America East Championship on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer to upset top-seeded Vermont. The Terriers then went on to become the first 16-seed to defeat a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament when they topped Virginia in epic and hilarious fashion. Vermont reached four of the last five America East Championship Games. The Catamounts got revenge on UMBC in the title game in 2019. Hartford won the America East tournament last year to reach the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history.
Preview: Vermont is once again the top seed in the America East Tournament and boasts the league’s leading scorer Ryan Davis (17.2 PPG) who is the two-time Conference Player of the Year. Hartford’s Austin Williams (16.4 PPG, 3.4 APG) was the Conference Tournament Most Valuable Player last year, leading the Hawks in a semifinal upset of Vermont and on to their first NCAA Tournament appearance in school history. Vermont is the highest-scoring (74 PPG) and best defensive (61.5 points against per game) team in the league. Their only loss in conference play came in overtime against Hartford. Hartford is the best 3-point shooting team in the league while UMBC is the best at the free throw line.
Atlantic 10
March 9-13
Washington, DC
Top Seeds: Davidson, Dayton
Sleeper: St Bonaventure
Tournament Format: All 14 teams qualify. The top 4 receive byes to the quarterfinals. The bottom 4 play in play-in games.
Recent History: The A-10 has been one of the most successful mid-major leagues at earning At-Large bids. Part of this is because the top seed has only won the tournament twice in the last decade, including last season. Strangely, the most successful teams have come from the 4-seed, winning 5 of the last 12 titles. St Louis won the tournament in 2019 from the 6th seed, just the second time in the last 14 years that a team won the A-10 without getting a first round bye (top four seeds).
Preview: Davidson won the regular season title and has a realistic shot at an at-large bid if they don’t win the A-10 tournament. VCU enters the postseason right on the NCAA Tournament bubble while teams like Dayton, St Bonaventure, and St Louis have some work to do and may need to win the A-10 to get in. St. Louis, Davidson, and UMass led the way offensively, all averaging over 75 points per game. Defensively, it was Dayton and VCU that both held opponents around 60 points per game. Davidson ranks 10th in the nation in offensive efficiency and five other squads rank in the Top 80. The Wildcats are also one of the top three-point shooting teams in the nation (38.7%). VCU is 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency. St Louis’ Yuri Collins (11.0 PPG, 8.0 APG) leads the nation in assists and Richmond’s Jacob Gilyard (12.5 PPG, 5.6 APG, 3.0 SPG) leads the nation in steals.
Big Sky
March 9-12
Boise, ID
Top Seeds: Montana State, Southern Utah
Sleeper: Eastern Washington
Tournament Format: All 11 teams qualify with the bottom 6 teams playing in play-in games followed by a normal bracket.
Recent History: Montana and Weber St have one of the best rivalries in the mid-major ranks. These two schools have dominated the Big Sky Tournament and at least one of them has appeared in 10 straight championship games before COVID cancelled the 2020 tournament. In that timespan the two schools faced off four times in the league title game. The Big Sky has been very successful at getting their top teams to the Big Dance. Only once in the last decade has a team outside the top 2 seeds won the the automatic bid. In fact, the top seed has won 8 of the last 10 tournaments. Eastern Washington has reached 3 straight Big Sky Championship Games, falling to Montana in 2018 and 2019 then beating Montana State to win the title in 2021.
Preview: If you like up-tempo games, the Big Sky is a can’t-miss tournament. Six of the 11 teams rank in the Top 100 in the nation in possessions per game. Five teams finished the season averaging more than 75 points per game, led by Southern Utah and Northern Colorado who averaged nearly 79 per game. Defensively, Montana and Montana State were the only teams to hold opponents under 70 points per game. With perennial powerhouses Weber State and Montana matching up in the Quarterfinals, the bracket is wide open for a team that hasn’t been to the Dance in a long time to make a run. Regular season champs Montana State have not been to the NCAA Tournament since 1996. Northern Colorado’s Daylen Kountz (20.9 PPG) led the league in scoring on a team that was one of the best three-point shooting squads in the nation (38.5%). This figures to be a fun, fast-paced and wide open tournament with plenty of up-and-down action.
Big West
March 8, 10-12
Henderson, NV
Top Seeds: Long Beach St, Cal St Fullerton
Sleeper: UC Riverside
Tournament Format: Top 10 teams qualify with the bottom 4 playing in first round play-in games. UC San Diego is ineligible for the postseason due to their transition from D-II.
Recent History: The Big West has the most parity of any conference in basketball. In the last 13 tournaments, 9 different teams have won the league’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. The only teams to win it more than once were UC Santa Barbara (who won back-to-back in 2010 and 2011 then again in 2021) and UC Irvine (who won in 2015 and 2019). The only current school in the conference that has not made the NCAA Tournament in the last decade is UC-Riverside.
Preview: The Big West might be one of the deepest conferences in the nation. The top seven teams all finished above .500 overall. Defense is the name of the game in the Big West as only Long Beach St and Santa Barbara averaged more than 71 points per game this season. On the flip side, UC Irvine stifled teams to under 60 points per game. Seven of the 10 teams in the Big West Tournament were among the 100 slowest teams in the nation. However, Long Beach State was the outlier, winning with a fast-paced attack that was one of the 20 quickest in the nation. Some of that came from Irvine’s dominance on the inside where they led the conference in rebounding. Fullerton’s EJ Anosike (16.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG) edged out Long Beach State’s Joel Murray (16.2 PPG) for the Big West scoring title. Santa Barbara’s Amadou Sow (15.8 PPG, 8.2 RPG) finished in the top 3 in both scoring and rebounding. This feels like a wide open tournament and it would not at all be surprising to see the winner of the Irvine-Santa Barbara quarterfinal run the table for the automatic bid.
Conference USA
March 8-12
Frisco, TX
Top Seeds: North Texas, Middle Tennessee
Sleeper: Louisiana Tech
Tournament Format: Teams are seeded by finish within the two divisions in C-USA. The top two teams in each division receive byes to the quarterfinals. The 6th and 7th place teams in each division play in opening round play-in games. Teams play their first games against teams from the opposite division.
Recent History: The first round bye has always provided a massive advantage in the C-USA tournament. The eventual tournament champion has come from the top 4 seeds in 11 of the last 13 years including 9 straight before last year when North Texas won from the 6th seed. However, the top seed has failed to win the tournament in 5 of the last 7 years. Old Dominion winning from the top seed in 2019 was the first time since Memphis left for the AAC in 2013. The Conference USA Champion has won first round games in the last three of the last four NCAA Tournaments. Conference USA teams have fared well in the Big Dance, winning their first round games in 4 of the last 5 Tournaments. Middle Tennessee St upset #2 seed Michigan St in 2016 and #5 seed Minnesota in 2017 then Marshall defeated #4 seed Wichita St in 2018. Last year, North Texas upset #4 seed Purdue.
Preview: Defending champions North Texas nearly ran the table in the conference this season as one of the best defensive teams in the country. The Mean Green stifled the opposition to just 55.6 points per game, nearly 10 points better than the second-best team in the league (UAB). UAB was Conference USA’s top-scoring team (80.0 PPG), representing some of the dichotomy in the league. Five C-USA teams rank among the 100 fastest teams in the nation while the only team that played slower than Texas State was Virginia. In addition to UAB, Louisiana Tech and Western Kentucky also averaged over 76 points per game. Three players averaged over 19 points per game – UTEP’s Souley Boum (19.8 PPG), Charlotte’s Jahmir Young (19.8 PPG), and UAB’s Jordan Walker (19.3 PPG) who was one of the best 3-point shooters in the conference. Louisiana Tech’s Kenny Lofton averaged a double-double (16.4 PPG, 10.5 RPG). This is a conference with a number of fast-paced, up-tempo teams….and North Texas. Can the Mean Green’s defense slow down their opposition like they did last year en route to the Big Dance? Whoever wins, keep them in mind as a potential first round upset pick.
Ivy
March 12-13
Cambridge, MA
Top Seeds: Princeton, Yale
Sleeper: Cornell
Tournament Format: Top four teams qualify for the tournament.
Recent History: The Ivy League was the last holdout from having a conference tournament and held their inaugural four-team tournament in 2017. This is the fourth year of the Ivy League having an official tournament and has had three different champions thus far. Harvard, Yale, and Penn have appeared in all four tournaments. Princeton has appeared in 3 of 4 tournaments, missing in 2018. These four teams have dominated the last decade, earning all of the Ivy League’s automatic bids. The Ivy League cancelled the 2020 tournament and their entire 2021 season due to COVID.
Preview: Princeton won the regular season title, ending the season on a 7-game winning streak. Cornell needed a win over Columbia in the final game of the season to edge out Dartmouth for the last spot in the Ivy League playoff. Princeton and Cornell will face off in the first round – a matchup of the two highest-scoring teams in the league. Both average around 80 points per game, putting them among the Top 20 in the nation. Princeton ranks 4th in the nation in 3-point shooting (38.8%), which makes them a dangerous team in March. The other semifinal is a matchup between the top two scorers in the league – Penn’s Jordan Dingle (20.6 PPG) and Yale’s Azar Swain (18.9 PPG).
MAC
March 9-12
Cleveland, OH
Top Seeds: Toledo, Kent St
Sleeper: Buffalo
Tournament Format: The top 8 teams qualify and play in a normal bracket
Recent History: Top seeds have not fared well in the MAC Tournament. In the last 12 years, the #1 seed has only reached the NCAA Tournament 4 times. Buffalo has won 4 of the last 6 automatic bids and lost in the title game to Ohio last year. The Bulls won first round games in the NCAA Tournament in 2018 and 2019, upsetting #4 seed Arizona by 21 points in 2018 then earning a #6 seed and beating 11th-seeded Arizona St in 2019. Last year, Ohio upset #4 seed Virginia to make three straight first round victories for the MAC Champions.
Preview: This should be an awesome tournament as FIVE teams in the MAC won 20+ games this season. Regular season champion Toledo and Buffalo both averaged over 80 points per game. The MAC Tournament should be loaded with scoring as four players averaged over 19 points per game this season. The conference’s leading scorer Lamar Norman won’t be in the tournament as Western Michigan didn’t qualify. But the other three – Ohio’s Mark Sears (19.4 PPG, 4.3 APG), Toledo’s Ryan Rollins (19.2 PPG), and Buffalo’s Jeenathan Williams (19.2 PPG) – will be among the participants. With only 8 teams in the MAC Tournament this year, this might be one of the most exciting mid-major tournaments of Champ Week.
MAAC
March 8-12
Atlantic City, NJ
Top Seeds: Iona, St Peter’s
Sleeper: Monmouth
Tournament Format: All 11 teams qualify. The bottom 6 play in three play-in games followed by a normal bracket.
Recent History: Iona has owned the MAAC Tournament in recent years. The Gaels have won 5 straight MAAC Tournament titles and appeared in 8 consecutive championship games. Iona won the tournament from the top seed in 2019, which was the only time the regular season champion also won the MAAC Tournament since 2010. Last year, Iona was given the #9 seed in the MAAC tournament due to having a number of games cancelled by COVID and still ran the table to win the MAAC once again.
Preview: The powerhouse that is Iona is the top seed in this year’s tournament. The Gaels don’t quite have the resume to be considered as an at-large team if they don’t win the MAAC, but could be a very dangerous team on the 12 or 13 seed line. Iona led the conference in scoring (75.4 PPG) while second-seeded St Peter’s had the top defense (62.4 points against per game). Third-seeded Siena leads the league in three-point shooting. The MAAC doesn’t have the offensive firepower that it has displayed in years past and Iona is the prohibitive favorites having won the regular season title by 3 games with Rick Pitino at the helm. Manhattan’s Jose Perez (18.8 PPG, 4.5 APG) and Niagara’s Marcus Hammon (18.1 PPG) led the league in scoring.
MEAC
March 9-12
Norfolk, VA
Top Seeds: Norfolk St, Howard
Sleeper: NC Central
Tournament Format: All 8 teams qualify and play in a normal bracket
Recent History: North Carolina Central won three straight MEAC tournaments before COVID cancelled the 2020 iteration. In the last 13 years, the MEAC Tournament has either been won by a favorite (7 times by the #1 or #2 seed) or a massive upset (4 times by the #6 or #7 seed). Norfolk State ended NC Central’s run last year, marking the first time since 2013 that NC Central or Hampton did not win the league title. While generally thought of as one of the lower-tier mid-major leagues, the MEAC has produced 3 of the biggest NCAA Tournament upsets in the last 25 years (Coppin St over South Carolina in 1997, Hampton over Iowa St in 2001, and Norfolk St over Missouri in 2012). The MEAC owns 3 of the 8 15-over-2 upsets in NCAA Tournament history.
Preview: The MEAC has seen a number of schools depart over the last few seasons and is now down to just 8 teams. The MEAC champion has received a 16-seed in every Tournament since 2014. Norfolk State is the defending champs and returned conference player of the year and tournament MVP Joe Bryant. He led the league in scoring (16.8 PPG) and carried Norfolk to the conference title, which they won by 3 games over Howard. Second-place Howard has the MEAC’s best offense (77.1 PPG), ahead of Morgan State and Norfolk State who both average about 75 per game. The Bison, led by the tandem of Kyle Foster (16.1 PPG) and Steve Settle (13.8 PPG), are also the best 3-point shooting team in the MEAC. NC Central has won the MEAC Tournament from a number of different seed lines and should never be counted out.
Mountain West
March 9-12
Las Vegas, NV
Top Seeds: Boise St, Colorado St
Sleeper: UNLV
Tournament Format: All 11 teams qualify. The bottom 6 teams play in three play-in games.
Recent History: The Mountain West Tournament has not been kind to top seeds. In the last 14 tournaments, only three #1 seeds have won the tournament (including last year) while the #2 seed has won 8 times. San Diego State has been the most successful at navigating the bracket, reaching the championship game 11 times in the last 13 years. The Aztecs won the automatic bid from the 5-seed in 2018 and from the top seed last year. San Diego State has reached four straight Mountain West finals and faced Utah State each of the last three years.
Preview: The Mountain West is one of the top conferences in the nation this season. The league should get at least four teams into the NCAA Tournament – Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, and Wyoming. In addition to those four, Utah St, Fresno St, and UNLV all rank in the Top 85 teams in KenPom’s efficiency ratings. San Diego State (58.3 points allowed per game) and Fresno St (58.4 points allowed per game) rank 2nd and 3rd in the nation in defense. Colorado State forward David Roddy (19.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG) won conference player of the year honors with an outstanding inside-outside game and is absolutely worth the price of admission. Wyoming’s tandem of point guard Hunter Maldonado (18.7 PPG, 6.4 APG) and forward Graham Ike (19.9 PPG, 9.6 RPG) has put the Cowboys in position to go Dancing. UNLV’s Bryce Hamilton (21.8 PPG) has a young Rebels team playing their best ball of the season and is 7th in the nation in scoring. Boise State won the regular season conference title thanks to a stiff defense (60.8 points against per game) and is a lock for the NCAA Tournament as well. This might be the most wide open of any tournament as it feels like any of the top 7 seeds are capable of getting hot and winning the title.
Southland
March 9-12
Katy, TX
Top Seeds: Nicholls, New Orleans
Sleeper:
Tournament Format: All 8 teams qualify for the tournament. The top two seeds receive double byes to the semifinals. The 3rd and 4th seed receive byes to the quarterfinals. The 5th-8th seeds play in the first round.
Recent History: The non-traditional bracket has benefited the Southland Conference. Since the conference moved to this format, the eventual champion has received a double bye in 7 of the last 8 years. Abilene Christian won the Southland Tournament last year and upset in-state powerhouse Texas in the opening round. Conference realignment has drained the Southland as four schools departed this year for the WAC, including Abilene Christian and Stephen F Austin who had combined to win 6 of the last 7 Southland Tournament titles.
Preview: The Southland was decimated by their top-tier teams leaving for the WAC, which means the conference champion will likely find themselves with a 16-seed. There was not much defense played in the Southland this season as 6 teams averaged above 75 points per game, led by Southeastern Louisiana (79.7 PPG) and Nicholls (79.6 PPG). Nicholls won the regular season title for the third time in the last 5 seasons but has not been to the NCAA Tournament since 1998. The Colonels were led by Ty Gordon (21.6 PPG) who was 9th in the nation in scoring. New Orleans’ tandem of Derek St Hilarie (20.8 PPG) and Tryo Green (16.1 PPG) make the Privateers a threat to make a run at the Southland title.
SWAC
March 9-12
Birmingham, AL
Top Seeds: Alcorn St, Texas Southern
Sleeper: Alabama A&M
Tournament Format: The top 8 teams qualify and play in a normal bracket.
Recent History: The top seed has won the SWAC in 5 of the last 9 tournaments. Since 1999, the only time the SWAC Champion did not receive a 16-seed in the NCAA Tournament was 2015 when Texas Southern got a 15-seed. Prairie View A&M won the SWAC title in 2019, which was the only time since 2012 that a team other than Texas Southern or Southern won the SWAC. Texas Southern reclaimed their crown last year and have won 5 of the last 7 SWAC tournaments.
Preview: The SWAC expanded to 12 teams this year with the addition of Florida A&M and Bethune-Cookman. Top-seeded Alcorn State might be one of the stories of the year in the NCAA. The Braves went just 1-11 in non-conference play but ended the year on a 6-game winning streak to finish 14-4 in the SWAC and win their first regular season title since 2002. Southern enters the postseason as the SWAC’s highest-scoring team (72.4 PPG), the only team in the league averaging more than 70 per game. Southern and Texas Southern are also the only teams to enter the postseason with a winning record overall. Texas Southern and Jackson State have the best defenses, holding opponents under 67 per game. Florida A&M;s MJ Randolph is the SWAC’s leading scorer (18.8 PPG, 3.7 APG). Overall, the SWAC is one of the weakest conferences in the country and the winner here will likely find themselves in a play-in game in Dayton.
WAC
March 9-12
Las Vegas, NV
Top Seeds: New Mexico St, Seattle
Sleeper: Grand Canyon
Tournament Format: The 10 postseason-eligible teams qualify for the WAC Tournament, which has a non-traditional format. The top two seeds receive triple byes to the semifinals. The #3 and #4 seeds receive double byes to the quarterfinals. The #5 and #6 seeds receive byes to the second round. The #7-#10 seeds play in the first round. Tarleton St, Dixie St, and Cal Baptist are ineligible due to the transition to Division I.
Recent History: New Mexico State has won 8 of the last 11 WAC titles and appeared in 9 straight championship games. One of the top 3 seeds has won the last 12 WAC Tournaments, including last year when Grand Canyon earned their first trip to the NCAA Tournament in school history. The WAC expanded to 13 teams this season with the addition of four schools from Texas – Stephen F Austin, Sam Houston St, Abilene Christian, and Lamar. SFA and Abilene Christian had won 6 of the last 7 Southland Conference titles before joining the WAC this year.
Preview: The addition of the Texas teams was a huge boon for the WAC this year. Only one game separated the top five teams in the standings. Three teams finished tied atop the WAC (New Mexico St, Seattle, and Stephen F Austin) and two more (Grand Canyon and Sam Houston State) were just a game behind. In a conference where New Mexico State has just dominated since Boise St and Nevada left in the early 2010s, this might be the best WAC tournament in a decade. Defending WAC champions Grand Canyon had the top defense in the league (60.6 points allowed per game) while defending Southland Champions Abilene Christian had the best offense (76.9 points per game). Big men dominated the league this year. The top three scorers were all in the top 5 in the league in rebounding. New Mexico State’s Teddy Allen (19.5 PPG, 6.9 RPG) led the way followed by Utah Valley’s Fardaws Aimaq (18.8 PPG, 13.9 RPG) who was second in the nation in rebounding.
