The season of college basketball Conference Tournaments are upon us! After the NCAA season slammed to a halt during conference tournaments last year, this year’s tournaments will have to handle the extra challenges of the COVID environment. While the major conferences are wrapping up their regular seasons this week, some of the smaller conferences tip off their Conference Tournaments and the quest to earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament begins. Of the conferences starting tournaments this week, only a few have the opportunity to significantly impact the bubble picture. Gonzaga is solidly on the #1 seed line and in the conversation for the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. BYU is also solidly in the Tournament field. In addition to the West Coast Conference, the Atlantic 10 and Missouri Valley Conferences could be multi-bid leagues.
As conference tournament play heats up, make sure to bookmark our Conference Tournament Tracker to follow along with who has secured automatic bids.
Additionally, I’ll be updating my Bracket Projection much more frequently as we move closer to Selection Sunday.
America East
March 6, 13
Higher seed hosts game
Top Seeds: UMBC, Vermont
Sleeper: UMass Lowell
Tournament Format: Seeds 4-9 play in first round. #3 seed got a bye to the quarterfinals and the top 2 seeds get byes to the semifinals.
Recent History: In 2018 UMBC won the America East Championship on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer to upset top-seeded Vermont. The Terriers then went on to become the first 16-seed to defeat a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament when they topped Virginia in epic and hilarious fashion. Vermont has reached five straight America East Championship Games, but the 2020 tournament was canceled prior to the Championship Game being played. The Catamounts got revenge on UMBC in the title game in 2019. Vermont, UMBC, Stony Brook, and Albany have been the dominant forces in the tournament over the last decade.
Preview: UMBC and Vermont tied atop the conference standings. UMBC claimed the top seed by virtue of a tiebreaker, which gives the Retrievers homecourt advantage throughout the tournament. Statistically, Vermont was the top team with the highest-scoring offense (73.6 PPG) and stingiest defense (62.9 PAPG). UMBC finished third in both categories. Watch out for UMass Lowell’s Obadiah Noel, the leading scorer in the conference (20.5 PPG).
Atlantic 10
March 3-6, 14
Richmond, VA and Dayton, OH
Top Seeds: St. Bonaventure, VCU
Sleeper: St Louis
Tournament Format: 14 teams with the top 4 getting byes to the quarterfinals and the bottom 4 teams playing in two play-in games.
Recent History: The A-10 has been one of the most successful mid-major leagues at earning At-Large bids. Part of this is because the top seed has only won the tournament once in the last decade (last year’s tournament was canceled after the Play-In games). Strangely, the most successful teams have come from the 4-seed, winning 5 of the last 11 titles. St Louis won the tournament in 2019 from the 6th seed, just the second time in the last 13 years that a team won the A-10 without getting a first round bye (top four seeds).
Preview: The A-10 regular season ended with a bit of a dud as Richmond, who had been in the conversation for an At-Large bid, fell to St Joe’s and regular season champion St. Bonaventure fell to Dayton. The top two seeds St. Bonaventure and VCU enter postseason play hanging on the right side of the bubble while St. Louis and Richmond have work to do. St. Louis (76 PPG) and Richmond (75.6 PPG) are the highest-scoring teams in the league. On the other side, St. Bonaventure has the stingiest defense (60.6 PAPG). George Washington’s James Bishop (19.3 PPG) and VCU’s Nah’Shon Hyland (19.2 PPG) had quite the race for the scoring title. St. Louis’ Jordan Goodwin was a double-double machine, averaging 14.5 PPG and 10.3 RPG. All in all, this could be a wide open tournament with 7 teams ranked in the KenPom Top 100, including the Bonnies, St Louis, VCU, Richmond, Davidson, Dayton, and Rhode Island.
Atlantic Sun
March 3, 4, 5, 7
Jacksonville, FL
Top Seeds: Liberty, Bellarmine
Sleeper: Florida Gulf Coast
Tournament Format: 8 teams in a normal bracket
Recent History: Liberty announced themselves on the Atlantic Sun stage by winning the conference tournament in their first season in 2018. The Flames upset top-seeded Lipscomb in the conference championship game then pulled a 5-12 upset of Mississippi State in the NCAA Tournament. Liberty repeated the feat and defeated Lipscomb in the 2020 Championship game. Before then, Florida Gulf Coast had appeared in 3 straight A-Sun championship games. The A-Sun Tournament has typically been played on home courts, which has played a role as 9 of the last 10 tournament champions were either the #1 or #2 seed.
Preview: Liberty has won the last two conference tournaments and is the top seed in this year’s tournament as the Flames look for a three-peat. Second-seeded Bellarmine is inelligible for the NCAA Tournament due to their transition from D-II to D-I. Liberty and Bellarmine both averaged over 74 points per game. The Flames held a significant edge defensively, holding opponents to 58.9 per game. Liberty has a guard-heavy lineup, led by Darius McGhee (15.5 PPG). Lipscomb has the A-Sun’s top big man in center Ahsan Asadullah (14.2 PPG, 7.9 RPG).
Big South
February 27, March 1, 4, 7
Higher seed hosts game
Top Seeds: Winthrop, Radford
Sleeper: Campbell
Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom four playing in two play-in games
Recent History: Winthrop has been a dominant force in the Big South Conference for the last 21 years. Since 1999, the Eagles have won the league tournament 11 times and appeared in the championship game 14 times. Winthrop won the Tournament last year. The Big South has been upset central over the last 8 years with the top-seeded team claiming the automatic bid only once. Other than Liberty’s shocking run from the 10-seed in 2013, the other 7 champions in that time have all come from the top four seeds.
Preview: Winthrop dominated this season and enters the tournament with a 20-1 record. Their only setback came by 2 points to UNC-Asheville. The Eagles paced the conference in scoring, averaging 79.4 points per game. Radford was the best defensive squad, holding opponents to 64 points per game. Hampton’s Davion Warren led the conference in scoring (21.6 PPG). Despite racking up so many points, Winthrop only had two players averaging in double-figures and did most of their damage with depth and pace. The Eagles will go 10 or 11 players deep but are led by Chandler Vernon (12.3 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 6.7 APG).
Colonial
March 6-9
Harrisonburg, VA
Top Seeds: James Madison, Northeastern
Sleeper: Hofstra
Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom 4 playing in two play-in games followed by a normal bracket
Recent History: Hofstra and Northeastern have met in the last two CAA Championship Games. Northeastern won in 2019 and Hofstra got their revenge in 2020. Northeastern has appeared in three straight CAA finals. The CAA is not a tournament where you are likely to find a massive upset. One of the top three seeds has won the league’s automatic bid in each of the last 19 seasons. Before 2019 when Northeastern got smoked by Kansas, the prior four CAA Champions all gave a challenge to their first-round opponent in the NCAA Tournament with Northeastern taking Notre Dame to the wire in 2015, UNC Wilmington challenging Duke and Virginia in 2016 and 2017, and Charleston giving Auburn a run for their money in 2018.
Preview: The CAA was one of the highest-scoring leagues in the nation this season, which should make for a fantastic tournament. James Madison and UNC-Wilmington both averaged over 77 points per game with Hofstra, Drexel, and Charleston all averaging over 70 per game. Defensively, Elon, Delaware, and Drexel are the best of the bunch, holding opponents under 67 per game. Individually, 10 players across the conference are averaging at least 15 points per game, led by James Madison’s Matt Lewis (19.7 PPG). Hofstra has three different players that rank in the top two in the conference in their respective statis – Jalen Ray (18.6 PPG), Isaac Kante (10.1 RPG), and Caleb Burgess (5.6 APG). Northeastern’s Tyson Walker (18.5 PPG, 4.9 APG, 2.2 SPG) is a dynamic guard capable of taking over games and leading the Huskies to the Big Dance.
Horizon
February 25, March 2, 8, 9
Indianapolis
Top Seeds: Cleveland St, Wright St
Sleeper: Northern Kentucky
Tournament Format: 12 teams with the top 4 receiving byes to the quarterfinals. The bracket is re-seeded each round so that the highest advancing seed faces the lowest advancing seed.
Recent History: In recent years, the Horizon League has been upset central. In 2016, despite the top two seeds getting byes to the semifinals, both of them lost as the #3 and #4 seeds played for the Championship. In 2017 the top three seeds all fell in their opening games and the semi-finals featured the #4, #6, #9 and #10 seeds. In 2018 2 of the top 3 seeds lost their openers and the semi-finals featured the #2, #4, #6, and #8 seeds. The 2019 Tournament went nearly to chalk and had the top two teams in the Championship Game and the 2020 tournament saw 4th-seeded UIC advance to the finals. Wright State and Northern Kentucky have been the most consistent teams in the league. Wright St has reached the final in 5 of the last 8 years but won the title only once. Northern Kentucky reached the finals in 2017, 2019, and 2020 and won all three games.
Preview: The Horizon League was an offensive powerhouse, led by a Wright St team that averaged 81.5 points per game. Detroit Mercy, led by one of the top scorers in the nation in Antoine Davis (24.3 PPG) averaged 77 per game. Milwaukee, Oakland, Youngstown St, and Purdue Fort Wayne all averaged over 73 points per game. The old adage that defense wins championships did prevail in the Horizon League as the top two teams – Wright St and Cleveland St – also had the best defenses. Wright State’s inside tandem of Loudon Love (16.7 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 1.3 BPG) and Grant Basile (14.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.6 BPG) carried the Raiders to the top seed. Oakland guard Jalen Moore (17.8 PPG, 8.4 APG, 1.8 SPG) is one of the most dynamic playmakers with the ball in his hands you’ll find.
Missouri Valley
March 4-7
St. Louis, MO
Top Seeds: Loyola-Chicago, Drake
Sleeper: Bradley
Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom 4 playing in two play-in games followed by a normal bracket
Recent History: In 2018, Loyola-Chicago swept through the regular season and the conference tournament then became the darlings of the nation as they made a run to the Final Four from an 11-seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Ramblers won a number of close games with the charm of Sister Jean on the sidelines. In 2019 Loyola was the top-seeded team in the tournament but fell in the semifinals to fifth-seeded Bradley who then beat #6 seed Northern Iowa in the Arch Madness final. The 2020 Tournament lived up to the “Arch Madness” moniker as well as the top 3 seeds all fell in the quarterfinals. Bradley repeated as MVC Champions from the #4 seed. Loyola’s 2018 conference title was the only time in the last six years the top seed has won Arch Madness.
Preview: Drake started the season 18-0 but dropped an early February game to Valparaiso then split their head-to-head meetings with Loyola. The Bulldogs also lost the season finale against Bradley and enter the postseason with injuries to two key starters. Drake averaged 78 points per game this season, but Loyola had one of the top defenses in the nation, holding teams to just 55.7 per game. Missouri State has two of the top scorers in the conference in Isiaih Mosley (20.0 PPG) and Gaige Prim (16.8 PPG, 9.0 RPG). Bradley’s Elijah Childs (14.2 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1.3 BPG) won the Tournament MVP two years ago. Loyola center Cameron Krutwig (15.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and guard Lucas Williamson (7.9 PPG) are the last remaining members of the team that went to the Final Four in 2018.
Northeast
March 6, 9
Higher seed hosts game
Top Seeds: Bryant, Wagner
Sleeper: Mount St. Mary’s
Tournament Format: Only the top 4 teams qualify. They are seeded in a normal bracket.
Recent History: Despite the NEC Tournament games being played on the home court of the higher seed, the top-seeded team has only won the league’s automatic bid twice in the last eight years. Three schools have mostly dominated this conference over the last 13 years. Robert Morris won the title last year, their 4th in that timespan, but the Colonials have departed for the Horizon League this year. Long Island has also won 4 NEC titles while Mount Saint Mary’s has won 3 times. Farleigh Dickinson’s titles in 2016 and 2019 was the only instances of a different team going Dancing.
Preview: With only four teams in the tournament, there isn’t much room for a surprise in this one. Regular season champion Bryant takes on Mount St. Mary’s in one semifinal with Wagner and Sacred Heart playing in the other. Bryant and Sacred Heart have never reached the NCAA Tournament since moving up from D-II (Sacred Heart in 1999, Bryant in 2008). Wagner’s only Tournament appearance was in 2003. Bryant is the highest-scoring team in the league (84.6 PPG) while Mount St Mary’s is the lowest (63.2 PPG). However, The Mount has the league’s best defense (62.2 PAPG) which has kept them competitive all season. Sacred Heart boasts the NEC’s leading scorer in Tyler Thomas (19.4 PPG), followed closely by the Wagner duo of Elijah Ford (17.9 PPG, 7.1 RPG) and Alex Morales (17.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG).
Ohio Valley
March 3, 4, 5, 6
Evansville, IN
Top Seeds: Belmont, Morehead St
Sleeper:
Tournament Format: Top 8 teams qualify and are seeded into a normal bracket.
Recent History: Since joining the Ohio Valley Conference in the 2012-13 season, Belmont has dominated the regular season. Winning either the East Division title or Regular Season conference title every season except 2018. The Bruins have had a double-bye in the Tournament every year except 2015 but have only won the automatic bid three times in that span. In 2019, Belmont was rewarded with an At-Large bid after falling to Murray State in the OVC Championship Game. Last year, Belmont finally got their revenge on Murray St (who had topped them in the finals of the prior two OVC Tournaments) on a game-winning layup with 3 seconds left. This year, the tournament reverts back to a normal 8-team format.
Preview: If you like up-and-down fast-paced offensive action, you’ll love the Ohio Valley Tournament. This typically delivers as one of the most entertaining mid-major leagues and this year should be no different. At the top of the pack, Eastern Kentucky (82.9 PPG), Belmont (82.1 PPG), and Murray St (76.8 PPG) are all high-scoring bunches. Morehead State is the top defensive team in the league (63.4 PAPG). While Belmont once again captured the regular season crown, the Bruins lost their final two regular season games after an 18-0 start to conference play. Austin Peay’s Taylor Terry was a double-double machine this year, leading the conference in both scoring (21.7 PPG) and rebounding ((11.0 RPG). Belmont guards Grayson Murphy (10.6 PPG, 5.3 APG, 2.1 SPG) and Luke Smith (12.2 PPG, 3.2 APG, 2.1 SPG) are both dangerous players on both ends of the court. While Eastern Kentucky allows a lot of points defensively, they also average 10.3 steals per game, the third-highest mark in the nation.
Patriot
March 3, 6, 10, 14
Higher seed hosts game
Top Seeds: Navy, Colgate
Sleeper: Bucknell
Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom 4 playing in two play-in games followed by a normal bracket
Recent History: Bucknell has won 8 of the last 11 regular season titles but has only reached the Big Dance four times in that span. Last year is the first time since 2014 that Bucknell did not win at least a share of the Patriot League title. Colgate has reached the finals in three straight seasons, but won just once, falling to Bucknell in 2018 and Boston U in 2020.
Preview: The Patriot League used a unique scheduling format this season, separating their teams into geographic pods that only played head-to-head games against the teams in their pod. Due to this, a lot of teams will be facing off for the first time in the conference tournament. The top two seeds were also the two best defensive teams in Navy (66.5 PAPG) and Colgate (67.8 PAPG). Colgate, who is looking to reach the title game for the fourth straight season, is also the highest-scoring team in the league (85.7 PPG). The Raiders are led by the backcourt tandem of Jordan Burns (17.1 PPG, 5.6 APG) and Tucker Richardson (11.0 PPG, 4.3 APG). Loyola (MD)’s Santi Aldama lead the league in scoring (21.4 PPG) and rebounding (10.1 RPG).
Southern
March 5-8
Asheville, NC
Top Seeds: UNC-Greensboro, Wofford
Sleeper: East Tennessee St
Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom 4 playing in two play-in games followed by a normal bracket
Recent History: The SoCon Tournament has been dominated by the top seeds. In the last 13 years, no team seeded lower than 3rd has won the conference tournament and the top seed has won 9 times. East Tennessee St beat UNC Greensboro in the championship game in 2017 then Greensboro returned the favor in the 2018 title game. East Tennessee State has reached 4 of the last 5 SoCon Championship Games and Wofford has reached the finals each of the last two seasons. UNC-Greensboro has also been a force, reaching the final in 3 of the last 4 years.
Preview: The SoCon can be a crazy league where a few of the teams on the bottom end put up high-scoring offensive statistics but are incredibly thin defensively. Teams like The Citadel, Samford, VMI, and Western Carolina all rank in the Top 100 in tempo with this run-and-gun style approach. They were also four of the bottom five teams in the league standings, which should make for a fun first round of play-in games. VMI and The Citadel both topped the 80 points per game mark this season. The teams that found success were those that could play defense, led by ETSU (66.3 PAPG) and UNC-Greensboro (67.6 PAPG). Furman had the league’s best scoring margin so keep an eye on the third-seeded Paladins in the tournament. The Citadel’s Hayden Brown led the SoCon in scoring (19 PPG) and rebounding (10.5 RPG). Greensboro guard Isaiah Miller (18.9 PPG, 2.6 SPG) is the catalyst for the top-seeded Spartans.
Summit
March 6-9
Sioux Falls, SD
Top Seeds: South Dakota St, South Dakota
Sleeper: North Dakota St
Tournament Format: 8 teams in a normal bracket
Recent History: Over the last 9 years, two teams have dominated the Summit League . South Dakota State and North Dakota State are the only teams to represent the league in that span with South Dakota St winning 5 titles (including three straight from 2016-2018) and North Dakota St winning the other four, including the last two. The two teams have met 3 times in the conference championship game over that span with South Dakota St appearing in 6 of the last 9 league title games. The Jackrabbits won the tournament from the 4-seed in 2017 and the Bison won from the 4-seed in 2019, which were the only times since 2006 one of the top two seeds did not win the conference title.
Preview: The Summit League was a tight race this season between the top four teams. South Dakota State and North Dakota State are once again in the mix, along with South Dakota and Oral Roberts. Fourth-seeded Oral Roberts is the league’s highest-scoring team (82.0 PPG) and also boasts the league’s leading scorer in Max Abmas (24.7 PPG) and leading rebounder in Kevin Obanor (18.6 PPG, 10.0 RPG). South Dakota was led by the dynamic backcourt duo of Stanley Umude (21.4 PPG) and AJ Plitzuweit (19.0 PPG, 3.9 APG). Top-seeded South Dakota State runs through sophomore guard Baylor Scheierman (14.7 PPG, 9.1 RPG). The Jackrabbits are also the top 3-point shooting team in the Summit League. Kansas City has the top-ranked defense (62.3 PPG) but finished in the middle of the pack. Even though South Dakota St and North Dakota St have traditionally dominated, this figures to be wide open among the top four seeds as the top-seeded Jackrabbits lost twice to South Dakota and once to both Oral Roberts and North Dakota State this season.
Sun Belt
March 5-8
Pensacola, FL
Top Seeds: Texas State, Georgia State
Sleeper: Coastal Carolina
Tournament Format: All 12 teams qualify with the top 2 from each division receiving byes to the quarterfinals. First round matchups are based on teams from opposite divisions.
Recent History: For a period in the early 2010s the Sun Belt Tournament was rife with upsets. From 2011-2017, 4 of the 7 tournament winners were seeded lower than 5th. Troy and Western Kentucky have won the “Fun Belt” from the 6th seed and a #7-seed and #9 seed have also claimed the title. Recently, top seeds have performed better with the #1 seeds winning 3 of the last 5 titles. Georgia State topped UT-Arlington in the Championship in 2018 and 2019. Last year’s tournament was halted before the semifinals so no title game was played.
Preview: The Sun Belt was split into two divisions this season, and the two division champions won in very different ways. Georgia State won the East Division with offense, averaging 81 points per game. Texas State won the West Division with defense, holding opponents to just 61 points per game. In between, Coastal Carolina finished in the top three in the league in both offense (80.4 PPG), defense (66.8 PAPG), 3-point shooting, and rebounding. South Alabama’s Michael Flowers (20.8 PPG) was the conference’s leading scorer with Coastal Carolina’s DeVante’ Jones (20.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 3.2 APG, 3.0 SPG) close behind. Georgia State is a deep team that will go 9-deep on its bench and has 5 players averaging in double-figures.
West Coast
March 4, 5, 6, 8, 9
Las Vegas, NV
Top Seeds: Gonzaga, BYU
Sleeper: St Mary’s
Tournament Format: 10 teams qualify for the tournament. The top two seeds receive byes to the semifinals while the #3 and #4 seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals. The 7th-10th seeds play in the first round with the winners advancing to play the #5 and #6 seed in the second round. The tournament does not have games scheduled on Sunday because BYU can not play games on Sundays.
Recent History: Gonzaga has dominated the West Coast Conference tournament, winning 6 straight titles before being upset by St. Mary’s in the final in 2019. The last time Gonzaga did not appear in the Championship Game of the WCC Tournament was in 1997. Since the tournament moved to the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas in 2009, St. Mary’s has been the only other team to earn the league’s automatic bid. In fact, Gonzaga and St. Mary’s have faced off in 9 of the last 12 WCC title games, including last year when Gonzaga reclaimed their crown.
Preview: Gonzaga once again dominated the WCC along with the rest of their schedule, entering the postseason as the only unbeaten team in the nation. The Zags are also rated 1st by KenPom in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency. Gonzaga is the nation’s highest-scoring team, averaging 92.9 PPG. BYU should consider themselves comfortably in the NCAA Tournament field but is well behind Gonzaga offensively. Gonzaga has the league’s top two scorers in forwards Corey Kispert (19.5 PPG) and Drew Timme (18.9 PPG, 7.1 RPG). St. Mary’s has had a bit of a down year for the Gaels, once again leading the pack in defense (62.3 PAPG) but struggling on the offensive end. Gonzaga’s 11-point win at BYU was their closest game against a conference opponent. Only West Virginia has played the Zags in a single-digit game this season (and that includes early-season games over Kansas and Iowa.)
