Home 2021 NCAA Tournament Bracketology

2021 NCAA Tournament Bracketology

by Ian

Bracketology is both the art and the science of looking at the resumes of 70+ teams and deciding which teams should be “in” and “out” of the field, not based on what I think, but based on the historical trends of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. Predicting what the Committee will do is often a difficult venture but that’s the fun and the challenge. I’ll be updating my bracket projection at least once a week from here until Selection Sunday and including some analytical posts delving deeper into the science of Bracketology.

For starters, check out the Bracketology 101 post to give some baseline for how the Committee develops the bracket.

Here is my latest bracket projection of the 2019-2020 College Basketball Season. Once again, I will be taking part in The Bracket Matrix‘s annual bracket competition where I am ranked in the Top 75 in the nation.

Given the crazy world of COVID we currently live in, this year’s NCAA Tournament will operate a bit differently than in years past. All of the games will essentially be hosted in and around Indianapolis. Therefore, there won’t be East/South/Midwest/West Regions as there have been in years past and teams should get bracketed much closer to their “true” seed position. With these changes, I am just presenting the teams in an overall seed list this season and not bracketing them out into regions or pods.

FINAL Projected Seed List

Bracket Date: 3/14/2021

Highest remaining conference tournament seed listed in bold. 
Conference Tournament Champs in red.

1 seeds: Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan
2 seeds: Alabama, 
Ohio St, Iowa, Houston
3 seeds:
Arkansas, Oklahoma St, Texas, Kansas
4 seeds:
West Virginia, Purdue, Tennessee, Virginia
5 seeds:
 Villanova, Missouri, Florida St, USC
6 seeds: Texas Tech, Creighton, Wisconsin, LSU
7 seeds:
Oklahoma, Colorado, Oregon, BYU
8 seeds:
Florida, North Carolina, Loyola (Chicago), San Diego St
9 seeds:
 Clemson, UConn, Rutgers, Virginia Tech
10 seeds: St Bonaventure
, Georgia Tech, VCU, Maryland
11 seeds:
Michigan St, UCLA, Louisville, Syracuse, Drake, Wichita St
12 seeds: Georgetown, Oregon St, Winthrop, UC Santa Barbara
13 seeds: Colgate, Ohio, North Texas, UNC-G
14 seeds: Liberty, Morehead St, Abilene Christian, Drexel
15 seeds: Oral Roberts, Eastern Washington, Grand Canyon, Cleveland St
16 seeds: Hartford, Mount St. Mary’s, Norfolk St, Appalachain St, Iona, Texas Southern

Bubble Breakdown

(Projected conference champions shown in parentheses)

Last 4 Byes: VCU, Maryland, Michigan St, UCLA 

Last 4 IN: Louisville, Syracuse, Drake, Wichita St

First 4 OUT: Ole Miss, Utah St, Colorado St, St. Louis

Next 4 OUT: Duke, Seton Hall, Xavier, Boise St

NIT-Bound: St John’s, Memphis, SMU, NC State, Richmond, Stanford, Davidson, St. Mary’s, Mississippi St, Dayton, Western Kentucky