Home Bracketology 2018 NCAA Conference Tournament Previews: Week 1

2018 NCAA Conference Tournament Previews: Week 1

by Ian

The season of college basketball Conference Tournaments are upon us! While most of the major conferences are wrapping up their regular seasons this week, some of the smaller conferences tip off their Conference Tournaments and the quest to earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament begins. In addition to the small conferences, the Big Ten is playing their Tournament this week. The Big Ten wanted to have their tournament at Madison Square Garden, and in order to accommodate The Garden’s schedule had to hold their tournament this week. Of the conferences starting tournaments this week, only a few have the opportunity to significantly impact the bubble picture. The Big Ten is the obvious one, with four teams easily in the field (Michigan St, Ohio St, Purdue, Michigan) and three others (Nebraska, Penn St, Maryland) hanging on to the bottom end of the bubble picture. In the West Coast Conference, Gonzaga should feel fairly secure but St. Mary’s is squarely on the bubble. Loyola-Chicago could be an interesting case for the Committee if they fail to win the Missouri Valley Conference. For the other 10 conference that begin postseason play this week, it’s win or go home, which should make for some exciting tournament action.

As conference tournament play heats up, make sure to bookmark our Conference Tournament Tracker to follow along with who has secured automatic bids.

Additionally, I’ll be updating my Bracket Projection much more frequently as we move closer to Selection Sunday.

Atlantic Sun

February 26, March 1, March 4
Higher seed hosts game

Top Seeds: Florida Gulf Coast, Lipscomb

Sleeper: North Florida

Tournament Format: 8 teams in a normal bracket

Recent History: Florida Gulf Coast is the two-time defending conference tournament champions. The Eagles have won the Atlantic Sun in 3 of the last 5 seasons. North Florida has reached the title game in 2 of the last 3 years, winning the league in 2015 and losing to FGCU last year.

Preview: Florida Gulf Coast is about as close to a household name as a small school can be at this point after their run to the Sweet 16 in 2013 and Tournament appearances each of the last two years. The Eagles won the league by 2 games and their only losses in conference play came after they already had the regular season title secured. Led by senior point guard and A-Sun Player of the Year Brandon Goodwin (18.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.8 APG), Dunk City plays a high-tempo offense and averages over 80 points per game. Lipscomb was the hottest team to end the season, winning 5 in a row including a road victory at Florida Gulf Coast. The Bisons have never made the NCAA Tournament but boast the league’s leading scorer in Garrison Mathews (21.4 PPG) and the highest-scoring offense in the A-Sun (81.7 PPG). Keep an eye out for North Florida who also has a high-scoring offense (81.2 PPG) with 6 players averaging in double-figures.

Big South

February 27, March 1, 2, 4
Higher seed hosts game

Top Seeds: UNC Asheville, Radford

Sleeper: Campbell

Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom four playing in two play-in games

Recent History: Winthrop has been a dominant force in the Big South Conference for nearly 20 years. Since 1999, the Eagles have won the league tournament 10 times (including last year) and appeared in the championship game 13 times. Winthrop has reached the Big South Championship each of the last four seasons. Last year was the first time since 2012 that the top seed in the Big South actually earned the league’s automatic bid. But the Tournament was not without drama. Last year, 7th seeded Campbell went on a big run from a play-in game to reach the Championship behind explosive performances from guard Chris Clemons whe went for 27, 51, and 33 to get the Camels to the final.

Preview: Winthrop was in position to nab another top seed in the Big South Tournament, but lost their last two games to UNC-Asheville and Charleston Southern, dropping them to the #3 seed. The Eagles are still a dangerous team with the best offense in the conference at over 80 points per game. Senior Xavier Cooks is in the top 5 in the league in scoring (17.6 PPG) and leads the conference in rebounding (8.9 RPG). UNC=Asheville is dangerous from beyond the arc as the top 3-point shooting team in the league. The Bulldogs are led by the tandem of Ahmad Thomas (16.8 PPG) and Macio Teague (16.4 PPG). Liberty could prove to be a dangerous team with the best defense in the conference (64 PPG) and the best free-throw shooting team. As I mentioned in the prior section, never count out Campbell with the nation’s 4th leading scorer Chris Clemons (24.6 PPG).

Big Ten

February 28-March 4
New York

Top Seeds: Michigan St, Ohio St

Sleeper: Penn State

Tournament Format: 14 teams with the top 4 getting byes to the quarterfinals and the bottom 4 playing in play-in games

Recent History: Michigan won the Big Ten Tournament from the #8 seed last year, marking just the second time in the last 20 years a team seeded lower than 4th won the conference title. Michigan’s win was also the first time since 2009 that a team other than Ohio State, Michigan State, or Wisconsin won the tournament. The Wolverines were also the first team since 2012 to reach the title game without receiving a bye in the Big Ten Tournament.

Preview: Wait, what? The Big Ten Tournament is typically one of the last ones to conclude with the Championship game ending just before the Selection Show on Selection Sunday. This year, the tournament is a week earlier and is the only Major Conference tournament happening in the first week. The Tournament comes with extra weight this season as it will be held at the Mecca of Basketball, Madison Square Garden. The Big Ten has been a top-heavy conference all season with Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, and Michigan dominating the rest of the competition. Michigan fell to the 5th seed because of a head-to-head loss against Nebraska. Nebraska and Penn State are both on the fringes of the bubble picture but either one would need a big run (and to possibly win the whole tournament) to ensure their spot in the field. Penn State has the conference’s leading scorer in Tony Carr (19.9 PPG) and did sweep 2nd-seeded Ohio State, which presents an interesting quarterfinal matchup. Michigan State was one of the top 10 teams in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency and ended the season on a 12-game winning streak. Sophomore sensation Miles Bridges (17.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG) has led the way for the Spartans who rank in the top 25 in the nation in points, rebounds and assists. Purdue ranks in the Top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and is in the conversation for one of the top seeds in the Tournament. Ohio State and Michigan have been less efficient offensively but stout on the defensive end of the court.

Colonial

March 3-6
Charleston

Top Seeds: Charleston, Northeastern

Sleeper: William & Mary

Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom 4 playing in two play-in games followed by a normal bracket

Recent History: UNC-Wilmington is the two-time defending champions and was the first team to repeat as CAA Champs since Old Dominion in 2011. Wilmington was also just the second top seed to win the tournament in the last 7 years. That being said, the CAA is not a tournament where you are likely to find a massive upset. One of the top three seeds has won the league’s automatic bid in each of the last 17 seasons. The last three CAA Champions have all given a challenge to their first-round opponent in the NCAA Tournament with Northeastern taking Notre Dame to the wire in 2015 and UNC Wilmington challenging Duke and Virginia the last two years.

Preview: Charleston and Northeastern finished tied atop the conference after Charleston fell to William & Mary in overtime in the season finale. Northeastern finished the year on a 7-game winning streak but Charleston’s two head-to-head wins gave them the top seed in the tournament. The Cougars have a trio of scorers averaging over 17 points per game in Grant Riller, Joe Chealey, and Jarrell Brantley. Northeastern has relied on a deep bench with 8 players averaging over 16 minutes per game but only Vasa Pusica (17.6 PPG, 5.0 APG) and Shawn Occeus (10.4 PPG) scoring in double-figures. William & Mary is one of four original D1 schools who have never made the NCAA Tournament. The Tribe boasts the highest-scoring offense in the league (85.7 PPG) and is the best 3-point shooting team in the nation (43.5%). Hofstra’s Justin Wright-Foreman is the nation’s fifth-leading scorer (24.2 PPG) and UNC-Wilmington’s Devontae Cacok leads the nation in rebounding  (13.8 RPG). The top two schools were the only teams to average fewer than 70 points allowed per game, which means there is a good chance the CAA Tournament will once again be a high-scoring event.

Horizon

March 2-6
Detroit

Top Seeds: Northern Kentucky, Wright St

Sleeper: Milwaukee

Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom 4 playing in two play-in games followed by a normal bracket

Recent History: Last year’s Horizon League tournament was crazy as the top three seeds all fell in their opening games. The semi-finals featured the #4, #6, #9 and #10 seeds and eventually Northern Kentucky won the bid and made their first trip to the NCAA Tournament in school history. This marked the second straight year that the #4 seed had won the tournament and the third time in the last four years the top seed did not even reach the title game.

Preview: The Horizon League used to be one of the top Mid-Major Tournaments but it has lost a bit of luster in recent years with the departure of Butler in 2013 and Valparaiso this season. Northern Kentucky won the regular season crown after winning the league tournament last year. The Norse boast the best defense in the conference and one of the Top 30 in the nation (65.2 PPG). On the offensive end, Drew McDonald is near the top of the league in points (16.8 PPG) and rebound (9.3 RPG). Oakland boasts the top two scorers in the league in Kendrick Nunn (26.3 PPG) and Jalen Hayes (19.3 PPG). Nunn also ranks second in the nation in scoring and the Golden Grizzlies lead the conference in scoring at 79.8 PPG. Wright State and Milwaukee both have efficient defenses, holding their opponents to under 68 points per game. Milwaukee rode a stifling defense from the #10 seed all the way to the championship game last season.

MAAC

March 1-5
Albany

Top Seeds: Rider, Canisius

Sleeper: Iona

Tournament Format: 11 teams with the bottom 6 playing in three play-in games followed by a normal bracket

Recent History: Iona is the two-time defending tournament champions. The Gaels have reached the MAAC title game in five straight seasons. The top seed has not won the MAAC tournament in seven years – dating back to a 3-year stretch from 2008-2010 when Siena won from the top seed each season. In addition to their 10 MAAC tournament titles (twice as many as any other team), Iona is the only MAAC team to receive an At-Large bid to the NCAA Tournament in the last 20 years.

Preview: Rider and Canisius ran away from the rest of the MAAC this year, finishing 3 games ahead of the rest of the field. That said, never count anyone out in the offense-heavy league where 6 teams average over 75 points per game. Top-seeded Rider (82.6 PPG) has an efficient offense that plays at one of the fastest tempos in the nation. The Broncs have won 11 of their last 12, including a 110-101 win in regulation over Iona to clinch a share of the league title. In an offense-heavy league like the MAAC, it is hard to be known for defense, but Canisius is one of just 3 teams holding opponents under 71 points per game. The Griffins only loss in their last 9 games was on a buzzer beater against Rider. Canisius is led by the duo of Jermaine Crumpton (17.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG) and Isaiah Reese (16.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 4.7 APG). Niagara is the highest-scoring team in the league at 84.1 points per game thanks to the tandem of Kahlil Dukes (21.1 PPG) and Matt Scott (19.5 PPG, 7.4 RPG). Unfortunately for the Purple Eagles they also have the worst defense in the league, but their offense makes them a threat on any given night. If you like high-scoring, up-tempo basketball, the MAAC is right in your wheelhouse.

Missouri Valley

March 1-4
St. Louis

Top Seeds: Loyola-Chicago, Southern Illinois

Sleeper: Missouri St

Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom 4 playing in two play-in games followed by a normal bracket

Recent History: Four of the last six Arch Madness Tournaments were won by teams no longer in the conference (Wichita State and Creighton). The top seed has not won the Missouri Valley tournament in any of the last 3 years. However, in the last decade only once has a team seeded outside the top three in the tournament earned the conference’s automatic bid.

Preview: Loyola-Chicago was head and shoulders above the pack this year, winning the league easily by four games over Southern Illinois. The Ramblers had the second-best offense (73.6 PPG) and second-best defense (63.4 PPG) in the conference and rank in the Top 60 in the nation in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Loyola has great scoring depth with all five starters averaging in double-digits. Leading scorer Clayton Custer (14.2 PPG) missed 5 games earlier in the season when the Ramblers suffered their 3 worst losses which could make for an interesting bubble case if they fail to win Arch Madness.  The MVC is not a high-scoring league but features a number of stout defensive teams. Evansville’s Ryan Taylor is the conference’s leading scorer (22.1 PPG) while Illinois St features a talented trio in Milik Yarbrough, Keyshawn Evans, and Phil Fayne who all average over 15 points per game. MVC teams scored strong non-conference wins with Illinois St beating both South Carolina and Ole Miss while Loyola topped Florida and Indiana St beat Indiana.

Northeast

February 28, March 3, March 6
Higher seed hosts game

Top Seeds: Wagner, Mount St. Mary’s

Sleeper: St. Francis (PA)

Tournament Format: 8 teams in a normal bracket

Recent History: Mount Saint Mary’s is the defending champions and became the first top seed to win the NEC Tournament since 2012. Three schools have dominated this conference over the last decade. Mount Saint Mary’s, Robert Morris, and Long Island have each won the tournament 3 times. Farleigh Dickinson’s 2016 title was the only team to break that stronghold.

Preview: Defending champions Mount Saint Mary’s rose to the #2 seed by winning their last 3 games, including the season finale over regular season champions Wagner. The Mount boasts the conference’s leading scorer in Junior Robinson (22.2 PPG, 4.9 APG) and is the best 3-point shooting team in the league. Wagner rode a tough defense to the top seed in the tournament and the Seahawks are the only team in the league holding opponents under 70 points per game. Offensively, Wagner has relied on the trio of Blake Francis, JoJo Cooper, and Romone Saunders who all average over 14 PPG.  St. Francis (PA) is the highest-scoring team in the league (79.8 PPG) thanks to the duo of Jamaal King (18.3 PPG) and Keith Braxton (17.1 PPG, 9.7 RPG).

Ohio Valley

February 28-March 3
Evansville

Top Seeds: Murray St, Belmont

Sleeper: Jacksonville St

Tournament Format: Top 8 teams qualify. Top two seeds receive double-byes to the Semifinals and the #3 and #4 seeds receive byes to the Quarterfinals.

Recent History: Since joining the Ohio Valley Conference in the 2012-13 season, Belmont has dominated the regular season. Winning either the East Division title or Regular Season conference title every season. The Bruins have had a double-bye in the Tournament every year except 2015 but have only advanced to the NCAA Tournament twice in that span. In fact, a different team has represented the Ohio Valley in each of the last 4 NCAA Tournaments. Not surprisingly, 2013 was also the last time the top seed won the Ohio Valley Tournament. It is hard to say that the double-bye format has been beneficial to the top seeds as the #1 and #2 seeds have failed to reach the NCAA Tournament in each of the last 4 years.

Preview: Belmont led the league for much of the regular season but dropped 2 of their last 6 games while Murray St closed the season on an 11-game winning streak, enabling the Racers to claim the top seed. The good news for Belmont is that falling to the #2 seed keeps them on the other half of the bracket from defending champions Jacksonville St, who swept the Bruins in the regular season. Belmont has two inside-outside threats with Dylan Windler (17.6 PPG, 9.3 RPG) and Amanze Egekeze (16.6 PPG, 6.3 RPG) who both average over 42% from beyond the arc. Murray St has the best offense in the league (79.6 PPG) and ranks in the Top 50 in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Racers are led by the OVC’s leading scorer Jonathan Stark (21.7 PPG) and have one of the top point guards in Ja Morant (12.7 PPG, 6.4 APG).  Defending tournament champions Jacksonville State could be a threat again with their league-best defense (64.6 PPG). The Ohio Valley Tournament is typically one of the most exciting Mid-Major tournaments and the league once again features a number of quality teams capable of winning the title.

Patriot

February 27, March 1, 4, 7
Higher seed hosts game

Top Seeds: Bucknell, Colgate

Sleeper: Lehigh

Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom 4 playing in two play-in games followed by a normal bracket

Recent History: Bucknell has won 7 of the last 8 regular season titles but has only reached the Big Dance three times in that span. The Bison are the defending Tournament champions and will have home court advantage once again. Four different teams have won the Patriot League Tournament in the last four seasons.

Preview: Bucknell ran away with the Patriot League, winning the regular season title by 4 games over Colgate. The Bison won 15 of their last 16 games with their only loss coming against Lehigh. Senior forward Zach Thomas (21.0 PPG, 9.1 RPG) was the conference player of the year, beating out last year’s winner Nana Foulland (15.6 PPG, 6.9 RPG). Bucknell had the highest-scoring offense in the league (80.7 PPG) and plays an up-tempo game. Colgate finished second thanks to a deep roster and two players in Will Rayman and Jordan Swopshire that shoot over 41% from beyond the arc. Third-seeded Navy has the top defense in the conference, holding opponents to under 66 points per game. Keep an eye on Lehigh who closed the season on an 8-game winning streak.

Southern

March 2-5
Asheville

Top Seeds: UNC-Greensboro, East Tennessee St

Sleeper: Wofford

Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom 4 playing in two play-in games followed by a normal bracket

Recent History: The SoCon Tournament has been dominated by the top seeds. In the last decade, no team seeded lower than 3rd has won the conference tournament and the top seed has won 6 times. East Tennessee St beat UNC Greensboro in the championship game last season and the two have paced the field again this year, setting up a potential title game rematch. East Tennessee St has been to the championship game each of the last two seasons.

Preview: The Southern Conference was one of the tightest regular season races as five teams finished within 4 games of first place. Defending tournament champions East Tennessee State had a stranglehold on the league before dropping their last three games to fall into second place. UNC-Greensboro is the top seed for the second straight year, and are led by Francis Alonso (16.1 PPG). Mercer is the hottest team entering the postseason, winners of 8 straight games. Furman was close behind, winning 6 in a row and are led by the 2017 SoCon Player of the Year Devin Sibley (14.8 PPG). Wofford challenged themselves in non-conference play and in the process secured more ACC wins than Pitt this season with victories over Georgia Tech and North Carolina. The Terriers also feature the conference’s leading scorer Fletcher Magee (22.3 PPG). The top five teams are all capable of winning this tournament but win in different ways. UNC-Greensboro and East Tennessee St rank in the Top 60 in the nation in defensive efficiency while Furman, Mercer, and Wofford are in the Top 100 in the nation in offensive efficiency.

Summit

March 3-6
Sioux Falls

Top Seeds: South Dakota St, South Dakota

Sleeper: North Dakota St

Tournament Format: 8 teams in a normal bracket

Recent History: Over the last 6 years, two teams have dominated the Summit League Tournament. South Dakota State and North Dakota State are the only teams to represent the league in that span with South Dakota St winning 4 titles (including the last two) and North Dakota St winning the other two. The two teams have met 3 times in the conference championship game over that span with South Dakota St appearing in 5 of the last 6 league title games. The Jackrabbits won the tournament from the 4-seed last year, which was the first time in the last decade one of the top two seeds did not win the conference title.

Preview: Welcome to the Mike Daum show. The South Dakota St junior finished 7th in the nation in scoring, averaging 23.6 points per game and shooting over 42% from beyond the arc. Daum was a double-double machine for the Jackrabbits, also averaging 10.1 rebounds per game. The Summit League had three of the highest-scoring teams in the country, led by South Dakota St’s 85.3 points per game (7th in the nation). Fort Wayne’s 82.1 PPG, and South Dakota’s 80.8 PPG. Fort Wayne senior Bryson Scott was not far behind Daum’s pace at 22.2 PPG. South Dakota State finished the season as the League’s hottest team, winning their last 8 games including a thriller over South Dakota in the season finale to secure the top seed. South Dakota is seeking their first trip to the NCAA Tournament since joining D1 and relies heavily on the tandem of Matt Mooney (18.2 PPG) and Tyler Hagedorn (13.6 PPG, 6.1 RPG).  The Coyotes also have the best defense in the conference, holding opponents to just 67 points per game. Third-seeded Denver won their last 4 games and history says to never count out North Dakota State in this tournament.

West Coast

March 2, 3, 5, 6
Las Vegas

Top Seeds: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

Sleeper: San Francisco

Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom 4 playing in two play-in games followed by a normal bracket. The tournament does not have games scheduled on Sunday because BYU can not play games on Sundays.

Recent History: Gonzaga has dominated the West Coast Conference tournament, winning the last 5 titles and 15 of the last 19. The last time Gonzaga did not appear in the Championship Game of the WCC Tournament was in 1997. Since the tournament moved to the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas in 2009, St. Mary’s has been the only other team to earn the league’s automatic bid. In fact, Gonzaga and St. Mary’s have faced off in 7 of the last 9 WCC title games, though the Gaels have not topped the Zags since 2012.

Preview: Gonzaga and St. Mary’s cruised through another regular season in which they dominated the league. Only 3 WCC teams finished with winning records in conference play and the Zags and Gaels were 5 games clear of third-place BYU. Gonzaga won their last 11 games and rank in the Top 15 in the nation in both scoring offense (84.8 PPG) and offensive efficiency and have 6 players averaging in double figures. Gonzaga won enough games against quality opponents in non-conference play that they should feel secure in their Tournament position if they fail to win the WCC Tournament. St Mary’s, on the other hand, dropped a game to San Francisco which put their At-Large hopes in serious jeopardy. The Gaels are one of the slowest-paced teams in the nation but have an incredibly efficient offense (much like Virginia). Double-double machine Jock Landale (21.5 PPG, 10.2 RPG) will need to lead St. Mary’s to the WCC title game to keep the Gaels in the NCAA Tournament conversation.

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