Home Bracketology 2021 NCAA Mid-Major Conference Tournament Previews

2021 NCAA Mid-Major Conference Tournament Previews

by Ian

The season of college basketball Conference Tournaments are upon us! After the NCAA season slammed to a halt during conference tournaments last year, this year’s tournaments will have to handle the extra challenges of the COVID environment. With less that a week until Selection Sunday, all of the regular season games have now concluded. Today, I take a look at the Mid-Major Conference Tournaments that will take place this week. Of these conferences, only the Mountain West has a chance to be a multi-bid league.

As conference tournament play heats up, make sure to bookmark our Conference Tournament Tracker to follow along with who has secured automatic bids.

Additionally, I’ll be updating my Bracket Projection much more frequently as we move closer to Selection Sunday.

Big Sky

March 10-13
Boise

Top Seeds: Southern Utah, Eastern Washington

Sleeper: Montana

Tournament Format: 11 teams with 3 play-in games between the bottom 6 teams

Recent History: Montana and Weber St have one of the best rivalries in the mid-major ranks. These two schools have dominated the Big Sky Tournament and at least one of them has appeared in each of the last 10 championship games. In that timespan the two schools have also faced off four times in the league title game. The Big Sky has been very successful at getting their top teams to the Big Dance. Only once in the last decade has a team outside the top 2 seeds won the the automatic bid. In fact, the top seed has won 8 of the last 9 tournaments. Montana has defeated Eastern Washington in the last two Big Sky title games. Last year’s tournament was cancelled due to COVID.

Preview: The Big Sky is always one of my favorite small conference tournaments because the conference usually features dynamic offensive teams. This season is no different as Southern Utah (84.3 PPG), Weber St (82.1 PPG), and Eastern Washington (79.3 PPG) are all high-scoring outfits. On top of that, the top three teams all rank in the Top 120 in offensive tempo at KenPom.com. However, the three teams score in very different ways. Top-seeded Southern Utah has a guard-heavy lineup but is the second-worst 3-point shooting team in the conference. Five of the top six scorers for the Thunderbirds are guards, led by Tevian Jones (17.1 PPG). Eastern Washington likes to pound the ball inside with Tanner Groves (16.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG) and Kim Aiken Jr (12 PPG, 8.4 RPG) who are the top two rebounders in the conference. Weber State, on the other hand, does their damage from outside. The Wildcats shoot 39% from 3-point range, the best mark in the conference. Isiah Brown (18 PPG) is their leading scorer while three other starters shoot over 40% from beyond the arc. Southern Utah and Weber State both enter the postseason on hot streaks as Southern Utah has won 9 straight and Weber St has won 10 of their last 11 games. Montana, given their historical success in the Big Sky Tournament, can never be counted out and closed the season on a 4-game winning streak.

Big West

March 9-13
Anaheim

Top Seeds: UC Santa Barbara, UC Irvine

Sleeper: Cal St Fullerton

Tournament Format: The top 10 teams in a normal bracket with 2 play-in games featuring the bottom 4 teams.

Recent History: The Big West has the most parity of any conference in basketball. In the last 11 tournaments, 9 different teams have won the league’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. The only teams to win it more than once were UC Santa Barbara (who won back-to-back in 2010 and 2011) and defending champion UC Irvine who also won in 2015. The only current school in the conference that has not made the NCAA Tournament in the last decade is UC-Riverside. Last year’s tournament was cancelled due to COVID.

Preview: Will this be Riverside’s year? The Highlanders had their best season since moving up to D1 and finished 3rd in the regular season. They are the only one of the 10 current teams that have not earned the Big West’s automatic bid in the last 11 tournaments (not counting 2020). This is a conference typically known more for its defense than its offense. The top 3 teams all held opponents under 64 points per game. Only Cal State Fullerton averaged more than 74 points per game offensively (77.7 PPG). However, that does not mean the games lack for pace. Five of the ten teams finished in the Top 120 in KenPom’s tempo ratings – Long Beach St, Cal State Fullerton, Cal State Northridge, Cal State San Diego, and UC Davis. Cal State Northridge’s TJ Starks (21.6 PPG) led the conference in scoring. Santa Barbara’s JaQuori McLaughlin (15.6 PPG, 5.4 APG) was one of the top guards in the league and could carry the Gauchos back to the Tournament. With nicknames like the Gauchos, Anteaters, Roadrunners, and Matadors, the Big West is almost certain to turn out one of the best-named teams in the NCAA Tournament.

Conference USA

March 9-13
Frisco

Top Seeds: Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech

Sleeper: Marshall

Tournament Format: All 14 teams play in the tournament. The bottom 4 play in play-in games and the top 4 seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals.

Recent History: The first round bye has always provided a massive advantage in the C-USA tournament. The eventual tournament champion has come from the top 4 seeds in 11 of the last 12 years including 9 straight. However, the top seed has failed to win the tournament in 4 of the last 6 years. Old Dominion winning from the top seed in 2019 was the first time since Memphis left for the AAC in 2013. The Conference USA Champion has won first round games in the last three of the last four NCAA Tournaments. Middle Tennessee St upset #2 seed Michigan St and #5 seed Minnesota in 2016 and 2017 then Marshall defeated #4 seed Wichita St in 2018. Last year’s tournament was cancelled due to COVID.

Preview: Western Kentucky is a very solid team that could cause some noise in the Big Dance if they’re able to navigate the Conference USA field. The Hilltoppers, given their season-ending loss, would likely fall just outside the bubble picture if they don’t win the C-USA tournament. They are led by double-double machine Charles Bassey (17.6 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 3.1 BPG). The potential exists for the league’s highest-scoring team Marshall (80.5 PPG) to face off with the best defensive team UAB (59.6 PAPG) in the quarterfinals. Marshall’s 3-point barrage is always a threat in these tournaments and carried the Herd to the 2018 NCAA Tournament. Five C-USA teams rank between 80th and 100th on KenPom’s efficiency ratings – North Texas, Louisiana Tech, Marshall, UAB, and Western Kentucky – making this a wide open tournament.

MAC

March 11-13
Cleveland

Top Seeds: Toledo, Buffalo

Sleeper: Bowling Green

Tournament Format: Top 8 teams qualified and play in a normal bracket.

Recent History: Top seeds have not fared well in the MAC Tournament. In the last 11 years, the #1 seed has only reached the NCAA Tournament 4 times. Buffalo has won the last two MAC Championships from the top seed and won 4 of the last 5 automatic bids. The Bulls won first round games in the NCAA Tournament each of the last two years, upsetting #4 seed Arizona by 21 points in 2018 then earning a #6 seed and beating 11th-seeded Arizona St in 2019. Last year’s tournament was cancelled due to COVID.

Preview: Toledo ran out to an 11-1 start in conference play but slipped down the stretch to a 15-4 mark, but still topped Buffalo by two games. The Rockets closed out the season with senior guard Marreon Jackson (17.6 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 6.1 APG) posting a triple-double against Ball State, his second in the last five games. The MAC lived up to its “MACtion” nickname with high-scoring offensive teams in Buffalo (82.7 PPG), Toledo (81.3 PPG), Ohio (80.2 PPG), Bowling Green (79 PPG), and Akron (78.6 PPG). Sixth-seeded Bowling Green was 10-3 away from home, by far the best road team in the conference, and takes on Akron in the opening round who has lost 3 straight. Buffalo is the league’s hottest team entering the postseason, winners of 5 in a row. Kent State was the best defensive team (70.5 PAPG) while top-seeded Toledo was also the best from the outside, shooting 38.6% from 3-point range.

MAAC

March 8-13
Atlantic City

Top Seeds: Siena, Monmouth

Sleeper: Iona

Tournament Format: 11 teams with 3 play-in games between the bottom 6 teams

Recent History: Iona has owned the MAAC Tournament in recent years. The Gaels have won 4 straight MAAC Tournament titles and appeared in 7 consecutive championship games. Iona won the tournament from the top seed in 2019, which was the first time the regular season champion also won the MAAC Tournament since 2010. The 8 tournament champions between 2011-2018 were all in the top four seeds. Last year’s tournament was cancelled due to COVID.

Preview: Despite their recent dominance of the MAAC Tournament, Iona enters as the #9 seed. However, that seeding may be a bit misleading. The MAAC seeded their tournament based on conference wins and not on winning percentage. Iona had a number of games cancelled due to COVID and finished with a 6-3 mark in MAAC play. That .667 winning percentage was actually second-best in the conference behind top-seeded Siena. Iona features the conference’s leading scorer in Isaiah Ross (20.5 PPG). The MAAC typically has some offensively-gifted teams, but this year the best of the bunch is Monmouth (76.9 PPG). Defensively, St. Peter’s (62 PAPG), Marist (63.5 PAPG) and Siena (63.5 PAPG) all held opponents under 65 per game. Second-seeded Monmouth is the best 3-point shooting team and the best rebounding team in the MAAC. Siena was led by the backcourt trio of Manny Camper (14.6 PPG, 10.0 RPG), Jalen Pickett (12.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 4.8 APG), and Jordan King (12.5 PPG).

MEAC

March 11-13
Norfolk

Top Seeds: Coppin St, North Carolina A&T

Sleeper: Morgan St

Tournament Format: 6 teams with the 2 division champions receiving byes to the semifinals.

Recent History: North Carolina Central is the three-time defending MEAC Champions. In the last 12 years, the MEAC Tournament has either been won by a favorite (7 times by the #1 or #2 seed) or a massive upset (4 times by the #6 or #7 seed). NC Central won the title from the #3 seed in 2019 after winning from the #6 seed in 2018. While generally thought of as one of the lower-tier mid-major leagues, the MEAC has produced 3 of the biggest NCAA Tournament upsets in the last 25 years (Coppin St over South Carolina in 1997, Hampton over Iowa St in 2001, and Norfolk St over Missouri in 2012). The MEAC owns 3 of the 8 15-over-2 upsets in NCAA Tournament history. Last year’s tournament was cancelled due to COVID.

Preview: The MEAC was hit hard by schools realigning conferences over the last few years and had just 8 teams participating in basketball this season after Howard cancelled their season 5 games in. The MEAC split into two divisions and only played conference games within their division, so the Tournament will match up teams that have not yet faced off. North Carolina A&T had the best conference record while Norfolk State and Morgan State are the only teams to enter the postseason more than 1 game above .500. Norfolk St and Morgan St are also the top-rated MEAC teams on KenPom, but no team here ranks in the top 230 so the tournament winner will likely find themselves in a First Four game on the 16-seed line. Morgan St is the highest-scoring team (80.7 PPG) and has two of the top five scorers in Troy Baxter Jr (17.1 PPG) and De’Torrion Ware (15.7 PPG). Coppin State’s Anthony Tarke was in the top 2 in the MEAC in points (16.4 PPG), rebounds (8.4 RPG), blocks (1.9 BPG), and steals (2.7 SPG).

Mountain West

March 10-13
Las Vegas

Top Seeds: San Diego St, Utah St

Sleeper: Boise St

Tournament Format: All 11 teams qualify with the bottom 6 teams playing in 3 play-in games.

Recent History:  The Mountain West Tournament has not been kind to top seeds. In the last 13 tournaments, only two #1 seeds have won the tournament while the #2 seed has won 8 times (including 2019). San Diego State has been the most successful at navigating the bracket, reaching the championship game 9 times in the last 11 years. The Aztecs won the automatic bid from the 5-seed in 2018 and reached the title game from the 4-seed in 2019. Like 2019, Utah State finds themselves squarely on the bubble and as the #2 seed. The Aggies might need to repeat as Mountain West Tournament Champions to secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament field.

Preview: There are four Mountain West teams vying for spots in the NCAA Tournament. San Diego State probably has the safest resume of them all, while Boise St, Colorado St, and Utah St are all solidly on the bubble. All four rank in the Top 65 in KenPom’s efficiency ratings and have all held opponents under 66 points per game. Unfortunately for that trio, their best wins are against each other and none have more than 4 wins against Quads 1 and 2 combined. The Aztecs are the league’s hottest team, rattling off 11 straight wins thanks to their league-best defense (60.1 PAPG) and three-point shooting (38%) to secure the top spot in the conference. Utah State has the tallest team in the nation, with 7 players on their roster 6’8″ or taller. Not surprisingly, the Aggies are the top rebounding team in the Mountain West. While offensive firepower is not the MO of the Mountain West, Boise St and Colorado St led the pack, both averaging 76 points per game.

Southland

March 9-13
Katy

Top Seeds: Nicholls, Abilene Christian

Sleeper: McNeese St

Tournament Format: The top 10 teams in the conference qualify for the tournament. The top 2 seeds get triple byes to the semifinals and the #3 and #4 seeds get byes to the quarterfinals and #5 and #6 seeds get byes to the second round.

Recent History: The non-traditional bracket has benefited the Southland Conference. Since the conference moved to this format, the eventual champion has received a double bye in 6 of the last 7 years. Stephen F Austin missed the tournament last year but have won 4 of the last 6 Southland titles, but is ineligible this year.

Preview: With Stephen F Austin ineligible this season, the Southland field is wide open for a new team to claim the title. The top three teams (Nicholls, Abilene Christian, and Sam Houston St) finished just a game apart in the standings. The Southland had some wild disparities between offensive and defensive squads this seaon. McNeese St (80.8 PPG), Sam Houston St (80 PPG), and Nicholls St (79.4 PPG) were all high-scoring outfits. On the other side, Abilene Christian (60.7 PAPG) held opponents to nearly 10 fewer points per game than the next closest defense (Sam Houston’s 70.3 PAPG). Part of Abilene’s success comes from their aggressiveness, ranking 4th in the nation in steals (9.8 SPG). Sam Houston’s Zach Nutall (18.9 PPG) edged out Incarnate Word’s Keaston Willis (18.8 PPG) for the league’s scoring title. Watch out for high-flying McNeese St with double-double machine KeyShawn Feazell (13.5 PPG, 10.2 RPG) and a backcourt that shoots over 40% from beyond the arc. Top-seeded Nicholls won 7 in a row to reach the postseason and Lamar won 4 straight to vault themselves out of the first round of games.

SWAC

March 10-13
Birmingham

Top Seeds: Prairie View A&M, Jackson St

Sleeper: Texas Southern

Tournament Format: The top 8 teams qualify in a normal bracket

Recent History: The top seed has won the SWAC in 5 of the last 8 tournaments. Since 1999, the only time the SWAC Champion did not receive a 16-seed in the NCAA Tournament was 2015 when Texas Southern got a 15-seed. Prairie View A&M won the SWAC title in 2019, which was the first time since 2012 that a team other than Texas Southern or Southern won the SWAC title. Prior to 2019, Texas Southern had won 4 of the last 5 SWAC Championships.

Preview: Prairie View A&M won the regular season title for the third straight season, edging Jackson St on games played. Both Prairie View and Jackson St finished unbeaten in conference play, but their head-to-head game was cancelled. Prairie View’s 13 wins bested Jackson St’s 11. Prairie View has the top guard in the league in Cam Mack (12.1 PPG, 8.4 APG, 2.9 SPG) who leads the SWAC in assists and steals. Jackson State counters with the best big man in Jayveous McKinnis (12.2 PPG, 12.6 RPG, 2.0 BPG) who leads the SWAC in rebounds and blocks. Jackson State also has the SWAC’s leading scorer in Tristan Jarrett (20.1 PPG). The top two teams have also been the best defensively, with Jackson St allowing 61.6 per game and Prairie View 63.4 per game. Prairie View also ranks third in the nation in steals per game (10.11 SPG). Texas Southern is the highest-scoring team at 74 PPG. There may be an upset to be had here, but it would somewhat feel like robbery if we didn’t get the two unbeaten teams squaring off in Birmingham for the right to go Dancing.

WAC

March 12-14
Las Vegas

Top Seeds: Grand Canyon, Utah Valley

Sleeper: New Mexico St

Tournament Format: 6 eligible teams qualify for the tournament. The top two teams receive byes to the semifinals.

Recent History: New Mexico State has won 8 of the last 10 WAC titles and appeared in 8 straight championship games. One of the top 3 seeds has won the last 11 WAC Tournaments.

Preview: Is this the year New Mexico State’s reign comes to an end? Grand Canyon and Utah Valley finished two games clear of the Aggies in the conference standings. Grand Canyon captured the regular season crown thanks to their league-leading defense (62 PAPG), but New Mexico State was close behind (63.9 PAPG). Offensively, California Baptist (79.7 PPG) was the only team to average more than 76 per contest. The Seattle guard duo of Darrion Trammell (20.6 PPG, 5.5 APG, 2.0 SPG) and Riley Grigsby (18.3 PPG) led the conference in scoring. On the inside, Utah Valley’s Fardaws Aimaq (14.5 PPG, 15.1 RPG) led the nation in rebounding. In addition to Aimaq, Grand Canyon’s Ashjorn Midtgaard (14.3 PPG, 10.3 RPG) and Cal Baptist’s Gorjok Gak (13.4 PPG, 10.2 RPG) averaged double-doubles this season. This tournament has the potential for some great big man battles between those three.

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