The season of college basketball Conference Tournaments are upon us! After the NCAA season slammed to a halt during conference tournaments last year, this year’s tournaments will have to handle the extra challenges of the COVID environment. With less that a week until Selection Sunday, all of the regular season games have now concluded. Yesterday I looked at the mid-major conference tournaments. Today we turn our attention to the major conferences where nearly every conference has teams fighting on the bubble.
As conference tournament play heats up, make sure to bookmark our Conference Tournament Tracker to follow along with who has secured automatic bids.
Additionally, I’ll be updating my Bracket Projection much more frequently as we move closer to Selection Sunday.
American
March 11-14
Fort Worth
Top Seeds: Wichita St, Houston
Sleeper: SMU
Likely NCAA Tournament Teams: Houston
Bubble Teams: Wichita St, SMU, Memphis
Tournament Format: All 11 teams qualify with the top 4 getting byes to the quarterfinals
Recent History: This is the seventh year for the American Athletic Conference Tournament after the breakup of the Big East in 2013. Last year’s tournament was cancelled due to COVID. Cincinnati is the two-time defending tournament champions. SMU won the Tournament in 2015 and 2017, both from the #1 seed. One of the top 2 seeds has won all but 1 of the AAC Tournaments so far, when UConn claimed the crown in 2016.
Preview: Houston looked like the team to beat in the American for much of the season, but were topped in mid-February by Wichita State, who enters the tournament as the top seed. The Shockers had 6 games cancelled this year due to COVID, which left them a little short on quality wins and putting them on the bubble entering the conference tournament. Houston has the most secure profile and will likely find themselves on either the 2- or 3-seed line in the Big Dance. Houston has the top offense (77.2 PPG) and defense (57.6 PAPG) in the conference and are a well-rounded team with players ranking in the top 3 in the AAC in points (Quentin Grimes – 17.9 PPG), rebounds (Justin Gorham – 9.4 RPG), and blocks (Brison Gresham – 1.6 BPG). SMU’s Kendrick Davis (17.7 PPG, 7.6 APG, 1.5 SPG) is the top backcourt player in the conference. Memphis is also hanging around the bubble and like SMU does not have a Quad 1 victory on their resume. Wichita State’s victories over Houston and Ole Miss bolster the Shockers resume ahead of SMU and Memphis.
ACC
March 9-13
Greensboro
Top Seeds: Virginia, Florida State
Sleeper: North Carolina
Likely NCAA Tournament Teams: Virginia, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Louisville
Bubble Teams: North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Syracuse
Tournament Format: 15 teams qualify with the top 4 receiving double byes to the quarterfinals. The bottom 6 teams play in 3 play-in games.
Recent History: Either Duke or North Carolina has appeared in every ACC Championship game since 1997, a streak of 22 straight tournaments. Duke is the defending champions and has won 12 titles since 1999, including becoming the first ACC team to ever win 4 games in 4 days in 2017. Last year’s tournament was cancelled due to COVID.
Preview: This was a down year by ACC standards, and COVID cancellations wrecked havoc on a number of teams schedules. Georgia Tech vaulted themselves onto the right side of the bubble by winning their last 6 games led by ACC Player of the Year Moses Wright (18.0 PPG, 8.1 RPG). The top three teams (Virginia, Florida St, Virginia Tech) all finished with 4 losses but played a varying number of games. Pitt’s Justin Champagnie (18.4 PPG, 11.1 RPG) averaged a double-double and Duke’s Matthew Hurt (18.7 PPG) was the league’s leading scorer. However, those star players will both be playing in the play-in games on Tuesday. Florida State (79.6 PPG) led the league in scoring while Virginia (59.8 PAPG), thanks to their snail-like-tempo, had the best defense. There was not a singularly dominant team in the ACC this season and this tournament is wide open. Virginia Tech and Louisville played the fewest games of any team but have both done enough to warrant inclusion in March Madness. Clemson and North Carolina are solid middle-of-the-pack teams. UNC has started to hit their stride of late with convincing wins over Louisville, Florida State, and Duke. In a rare event, Duke is well below the bubble and likely needs to either reach the title game or win the tournament to even garner consideration from the Committee. Syracuse and NC State also on the wrong side of the bubble, essentially making their first round game an elimination game.
Big East
March 10-13
New York
Top Seeds: Villanova, Creighton
Sleeper: St John’s
Likely NCAA Tournament Teams: Villanova, Creighton, UConn
Bubble Teams: Xavier, Seton Hall, St John’s
Tournament Format: All 11 teams qualify with the bottom 6 teams playing in 3 play-in games followed by a normal bracket.
Recent History: Since the breakup of the old Big East in 2013, Villanova has been the top seed in 7 of the 8 tournaments. Villanova has appeared in the last 5 Big East championship games and is the three-time defending champions. Seton Hall has been the only team able to beat the Wildcats in the conference tournament, beating them in the 2016 title game and the 2014 quarterfinals.
Preview: Villanova once again won the Big East regular season title but took a major hit at the end of the year with point guard Collin Gillespie going down with a knee injury. Second-place Creighton also battled through injuries this season and might be the best team in the league when fully healthy. UConn (52.7 PAPG) and Providence (57.7 PAPG) were the best defensive teams in the league. The middle of the pack is filled with bubble teams. Seton Hall has the best wins of the group with 3 Quad 1 victories but enters the postseason just 1 game above .500. Xavier played the fewest conference games of any team but doesn’t have a bad loss. St. John’s has the Big East’s leading scorer in Julian Champagnie (19.9 PPG) and has a great win over Villanova but a bad loss to DePaul. Providence has beaten every team in the league except St John’s and Georgetown but is only one game above .500 and likely needs a deep run to garner consideration.
Big Ten
March 10-14
Indianapolis
Top Seeds: Michigan, Illinois
Sleeper: Michigan St
Likely NCAA Tournament Teams: Michigan, Illinois, Ohio St, Iowa, Purdue, Wisconsin
Bubble Teams: Rutgers, Michigan St, Maryland
Tournament Format: All 14 teams qualify with the top 4 receiving double byes to the quarterfinals. The bottom 4 teams play in 2 play-in games.
Recent History: A team from the state of Michigan has won the last 4 Big Ten Tournaments and appeared in the title game in 6 straight seasons. Michigan reached the final in 3 straight years, winning in 2017 and 2018 then losing to rival Michigan State in 2019. Sparty has won 4 of the last 8 Big Ten Tournaments. Michigan’s tournament titles in 2017 and 2018 were the only time one of the top 3 seeds did not win the Tournament since 2001. Interestingly, a team seeded lower than 3rd has reached the title game in 8 of the last 12 years, but only won it twice.
Preview: The Big Ten will likely get 8 or 9 teams into the NCAA Tournament. Michigan is the top seed in the tournament but has lost two of their last three games. One loss came to Illinois who might be the hottest team in the country not named “Gonzaga.” The other loss came to the streaking Michigan State who has vaulted back into the bubble picture after early season struggles. Iowa is a quality team led by National Player of the Year candidate Luke Garza (23.8 PPG, 8.7 RPG). Illinois’ Ayo Dosunmu (20.9 PPG, 5.2 APG) is one of the most dynamic players in the conference and makes for a formidable tandem with Kofi Cockburn (17.3 PPG, 9.6 RPG) who is the Big Ten’s leading rebounder. Ohio State was a #1 seed in the Committee’s initial bracket in February but will likely find themselves on the 2-seed line because of Illinois’ hot streak. Purdue and Wisconsin should both land seeds in the top half of the bracket. Rutgers looks poised to end their 27-year NCAA Tournament drought and will likely fall around the 8-10 seed range. Michigan State winning 5 of their last 7 games vaulted the Spartans onto the right side of the bubble. Maryland is an interesting situation because they have good metrics but are just 2 games over .500 overall and face off against Michigan State in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament.
Big XII
March 13-16
Kansas City
Top Seeds: Baylor, Kansas
Sleeper: Oklahoma St
Likely Tournament Teams: Baylor, West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma St, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma
Bubble Teams: none
Tournament Format: All 10 teams qualify with the bottom 4 playing in 2 play-in games followed by a normal bracket.
Recent History: Kansas’ historic streak of 14 straight years of winning at least a share of the Big XII regular season title came to an end in 2018. In the last 14 tournaments (since 2006) only 3 teams have won the Big XII Tournament – Kansas (8 times), Iowa St (4 times), and Missouri (twice). Missouri is no longer in the conference. Iowa State’s 4 wins all came in the last 6 tournaments, including a victory over Kansas in 2019. West Virginia reached the championship game in 3 straight seasons from 2016-2018 but lost each time. Since the inception of the Big XII tournament in 1997, Iowa St (in 2014, 2017, and 2019) has been the only team to win the tournament seeded lower than 3rd.
Preview: Baylor was one of the most dominant teams in the nation this season, rattling off a 21-1 record with their only setback coming against Kansas. Baylor’s backcourt of Davion Mitchell (13.7 PPG, 5.7 APG, 1.9 SPG) and Jared Butler (17.1 PPG, 5.0 APG, 2.1 SPG) have led the Bears to the top-ranked offense (85.3 PPG) in the conference. The Jayhawks started slow but won 7 of their last 8 games. The top teams in the Big 12 have been so solid this season that their profiles have been boosted to the point where the conference does not have any teams on the bubble. Oklahoma State has vaulted themselves into the conversation for one of the top four seed lines thanks to the play of potential #1 draft pick Cade Cunningham (19.7 PPG). West Virginia and Texas will also likely find themselves in the top 4 seed lines thanks to both teams having 6 Quad 1 victories. Texas Tech (63.3 PAPG) had the top-ranked defense and Oklahoma should land in the top half of the field with a number of quality wins.
Pac-12
March 10-13
Las Vegas
Top Seeds: Oregon, USC
Sleeper: UCLA
Likely NCAA Tournament Teams: Oregon, USC, Colorado
Bubble Teams: UCLA, Stanford
Tournament Format: 11 teams with the top 4 receiving byes to the quarterfinals. Arizona self-imposed a postseason ban.
Recent History: Oregon has appeared in the championship game in 4 of the last 5 tournaments and Arizona has reached the championship game in 6 of the last 9 tournaments. Either Oregon or Arizona has won the last 5 Pac-12 titles. Oregon won the tournament from the #6 seed in 2019. Prior to that, the top seed had won 3 of the last 4 titles. Interestingly, 6 of the last 11 Pac 12 Tournament Champions have played in the 3-6 game.
Preview: The Pac-12 Tournament will be without Arizona this season who self-imposed a postseason ban due to NCAA infractions. Oregon edged USC for the regular season title on winning percentage. The Ducks finished strong, winning 10 of their last 11 games. Oregon’s Chris Duarte (17.3 PPG) and Eugene Omoruyi (16.9 PPG) both finished in the Top 5 in the league in scoring. USC’s Evan Mobley led the Pac-12 in rebounding (8.6 RPG), blocks (2.9 BPG) and won the Pac-12 Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year awards. Colorado had the league’s best defense (63 PAPG) and is solidly in the NCAA Tournament field, but will likely land between the 6-8 seed lines because of a handful of bad losses. UCLA should be in the NCAA Tournament but has a resume relatively light on good wins. The Bruins don’t have any bad losses which puts them ahead of a team like Stanford who has more good wins but also a 1-5 record against Quad 2 opponents.
SEC
March 10-14
Nashville
Top Seeds: Alabama, Arkansas
Sleeper: Kentucky
Likely NCAA Tournament Teams: Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, Florida, LSU
Bubble Teams: Ole Miss
Tournament Format: 13 teams with the top 4 receiving byes to the quarterfinals and the bottom 2 playing in a play-in game. Auburn is ineligible due to a self-imposed post-season ban.
Recent History: Auburn claimed the SEC title in 2019, ending Kentucky’s run of four straight SEC Championships. Kentucky did not make the title game in 2019, for just the second time in the last decade. Tennessee has been the losing team in the last two SEC Championships.
Preview: Alabama rolled through the regular season with a 16-2 mark in conference play. The Tide have positioned themselves to land on the 2-seed line on Selection Sunday. Arkansas is the hottest team entering the postseason, winning 8 straight games to put themselves into the conversation for one of the top four seed lines in the Big Dance. The Razorbacks (83.3 PPG) and LSU (82.7 PPG) are the highest-scoring teams in the conference. LSU’s Cameron Thomas (23.1 PPG) led the conference in scoring. Vanderbilt’s Scotty Pippen Jr (20.6 PPG, 4.9 APG, 1.8 SPG) is worth tuning into the play-in games to watch. Tennessee, Florida, and Missouri all should be comfortably in the NCAA Tournament field. This was a rare down year for Kentucky, who went just 9-15 but had good computer metrics and are a dangerous opponent to see in the conference tournament. Ole Miss is hovering right around the bubble and could be a surprise inclusion into the First Four on Selection Sunday.
