2024 WPIAL Wild Card Scenarios

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Entering the final week of the 2024 WPIAL regular season, 14 of the 49 guaranteed playoff spots are still up for grabs. Additionally, 6 of the 17 conference titles will be decided this week. Check out our WPIAL Standings Page for a full look at the conference standings. If viewing the Standings Page on a phone, switch your browser to desktop mode to help with the formatting.

With the addition of Wild Cards in 5 of the 6 classifications this season, even the teams that don’t get “guaranteed” playoff spots will still have an opportunity for postseason play. Check out the Week 9 Playoff Scenarios post for the breakdown of what teams need to do to clinch guaranteed playoff spots. In the classification breakdowns below, the teams listed as “Should Be In” are teams that have not mathematically clinched a playoff spot yet, but I believe would get a Wild Card if they do not finish in the guaranteed spots. Teams listed as “In the Running” still have the ability, through some scenario, to clinch one of the guaranteed playoff spots. Teams without the ability to clinch a guaranteed spot are listed as “Wild Card Hopefuls.”

6A Playoff Scenarios

Top 4 Teams Get In

Conference Champion: Central Catholic (5-0, 7-2)
Clinched: North Allegheny (4-1, 8-1)
In the Running: Seneca Valley (3-2, 4-4), Mt. Lebanon (2-3, 2-7), Canon-McMillan (2-3, 3-6)

Week 9 Games: Canon-Mac at Central Catholic, Norwin at Mt Lebanon, Seneca Valley at North Allegheny

There are no Wild Cards in 6A. The bracket will be seeded based on order of finish in conference play. Central Catholic has locked up the #1 seed. The winner of the Seneca Valley-North Allegheny game is the #2 seed. If North Allegheny loses, they will be the 3-seed and get a rematch against Seneca Valley. If North Allegheny wins and Mt. Lebanon beats Norwin, then Mt. Lebanon would be the 3-seed and Seneca Valley would be the 4-seed. If Canon Mac upsets Central Catholic the Big Macs would be either the 3- or 4-seed based on other results.

5A Wild Card Scenarios

12 total teams – top 3 teams from each conference + 3 Wild Cards

Conference Champions: Upper St Clair (4-0, 9-0), Pine-Richland (4-0, 7-1), Woodland Hills (5-0, 7-2)
Clinched: Peters Twp (3-1, 8-1), Bethel Park (3-1, 8-1), Penn-Trafford (4-1, 7-2), Franklin Regional (3-2, 6-3)
Should Be In: Penn Hills (3-1, 5-4), North Hills (3-2, 7-2)
In the Running:
 Plum (2-2, 3-6)
Wild Card Hopefuls: South Fayette (1-3, 6-3), Moon (1-3, 4-4), Kiski (2-3, 4-5), Latrobe (2-3, 5-4), Gateway (2-4, 3-6)

Week 9: Bethel Park vs Peters Twp, South Fayette vs Moon, Baldwin vs Upper St Clair, Kiski vs Woodland Hills, Penn-Trafford vs Latrobe, Armstrong vs Franklin Regional, Plum vs Penn Hills, Shaler vs Pine-Richland, Gateway vs Hempfield

The WPIAL will select three wild cards in 5A. The Plum-Penn Hills game will decide the final two guaranteed playoff spots. Plum has to win by at least 9 points in order to get into the playoffs, otherwise North Hills and Penn Hills will get the spots. If Plum does get one of the guaranteed spots, then the fourth place team (North Hills or Penn Hills) will almost certainly get a wild card. Additionally, Moon plays South Fayette to decide the fourth place spot in the Allegheny Six Conference. The winner almost certainly gets a wild card.

This leaves the final wild card spots to be decided between the South Fayette-Moon loser and the three-way tie in the Big East between Kiski, Latrobe, and Gateway. Plum lost head-to-head non-conference games to all three of those Big East teams, so the Mustangs are likely out if they don’t get a guaranteed playoff spot. Moon is 4-4 overall but played a close game against Penn-Trafford (lost 14-7). Both Moon and South Fayette (6-3 overall) could earn wild card spots.

The most interesting decision the WPIAL Committee will make is selecting one (or two) of the tied Big East teams. If the WPIAL followed their normal tiebreaking procedures, Gateway (+6 tiebreaker points) would win the 3-way tie, but there is no guarantee the Committee will decide that way, given Gateway’s 3-6 overall record. Kiski is 4-5 but played a number of tight games this year. Latrobe started hot early in the year, lost their best player to injury, but bounced back to beat Gateway last week 28-27. In head-to-head results, Latrobe lost to Kiski by 23 and Kiski lost to Gateway by 21. Kiski has two non-conference losses to 6A teams (Norwin and Hempfield) whereas Latrobe beat Norwin and Gateway has an opportunity for another “common opponent” result against Hempfield this week. Latrobe and Gateway seem to have slightly better comparative results than Kiski, giving them a slight edge in my eyes.

Overall, if I had to rank the likelihood of teams getting Wild Cards, I would put the South Fayette-Moon winner first. If Plum somehow gets a guaranteed playoff spot, the 4th place team in the Northeast (North Hills or Penn Hills) should get a Wild Card. If Plum loses, they are out of the running given their head-to-head losses to the three Big East teams. Moon’s close loss to Penn-Trafford (by 7) whereas Gateway and Kiski lost to Penn-Trafford by three scores. With a Plum loss, the Committee would have to decide between the South Fayette-Moon loser and the three Big East teams for the final two Wild Card spots.

4A Wild Card Scenarios

8 total teams – top 2 teams from each conference + 2 Wild Cards

Conference Champions: Thomas Jefferson (4-0, 9-0), McKeesport (4-0, 5-4)
Clinched: Mars (3-1, 4-5)
Should Be In: Montour (4-0, 8-0), Aliquippa (3-1, 5-2)
In the Running: West Allegheny (3-1, 3-3), Belle Vernon (3-1, 4-3), Trinity (3-1, 4-5)
Wild Card Hopeful: West Mifflin (2-2, 4-5)

Week 9: Belle Vernon vs Trinity, Thomas Jefferson vs Laurel Highlands, Chartiers Valley vs Ringgold, McKeesport vs Knoch, Hampton vs West Mifflin, Indiana vs Mars, West Allegheny vs Montour, Blackhawk vs New Castle, Ambridge vs Aliquippa

The Parkway Conference Champion will either be Montour or Aliquippa, depending on the result of the Montour-West Allegheny game. West A would get a guaranteed playoff spot if they beat Montour but have to pin their hopes on the wild card otherwise. Montour and Aliquippa will both be in the playoffs, and if some crazy scenario happens where either finishes 3rd, they will absolutely get a wild card. In the Big Six, the winner of Belle Vernon-Trinity will finish 2nd and get a guaranteed playoff spot.

The Wild Cards will likely come down to the Belle Vernon-Trinity loser, West Mifflin, and West Allegheny. Trinity actually has a better set of comparative results than Belle Vernon and seems likely to get a Wild Card ahead of West Mifflin. Trinity lost to likely #1 seed Montour by just 7, lost to Thomas Jefferson by 20, and lost to Bethel Park by 41. Meanwhile, West Mifflin lost to Thomas Jefferson and Bethel Park by one score more than Trinity (28 to TJ and 48 to Bethel). Belle Vernon’s comparative results are much closer to West Mifflin’s (losing to TJ by 28 and both lost to McKeesport by 3 scores). West Allegheny’s first two games were cancelled due to thunderstorms so the Indians have fewer results than any other WPIAL team. If West Allegheny can play a tight game against Montour, combined with their 12-point loss to Aliquippa, should be enough to earn consideration for a wild card. One factor working against West Mifflin is the overall poor performance of the Greater Allegheny Conference in non-conference play. Entering Week 9, McKeesport is the only GAC team with a winning record overall (though Mars and West Mifflin can get to 5-5 with wins this week). By comparison, 5 of the 6 teams in the Parkway Conference enter Week 9 with a .500 or better record. I would give Trinity and West Allegheny a slight edge in the wild card race overall, with West Mifflin close behind.

3A Wild Card Scenarios

12 total teams – top 3 teams from each conference + 3 Wild Cards

Conference Champions: All to be decided based on Week 9 games
Clinched: Imani Christian (5-0, 9-0), Deer Lakes (4-1, 7-2), Freeport (4-1, 7-2), Elizabeth Forward (4-0, 6-3), Avonworth (5-0, 7-2), Central Valley (5-1, 5-4), Beaver (4-1, 7-2)
In the Running: Southmoreland (3-1, 7-2), Mt Pleasant (3-1, 5-4), Greensburg Salem (2-2, 6-3)
Wild Card Hopefuls: Highlands (2-3, 4-4), North Catholic (2-3, 3-6), Hopewell (2-3, 4-5)

Week 9: Imani vs Freeport, Burrell vs Deer Lakes, Highlands vs Valley, Elizabeth Forward vs Mt Pleasant, Southmoreland vs Greensburg Salem, Derry vs Yough, Avonworth vs Beaver, Hopewell vs North Catholic, McGuffey vs Quaker Valley

The most straightforward Wild Card scenario is in 3A. The final two playoff spots in the Interstate Conference have yet to be decided. Mt. Pleasant has the widest variation in potential results – the Vikings could win the conference title or miss out on the guaranteed playoff spots entirely. If Southmoreland beats Greensburg Salem, then Mt. Pleasant and Southmoreland would get the final two guaranteed playoff spots in the Interstate. If Greensburg Salem beats Southmoreland, then the guaranteed playoff spots would be determined by the Mt Pleasant-Elizabeth Forward result. A Mt. Pleasant win would knock Southmoreland out of the Top 3 but with a 7-3 overall record the Scotties would certainly get a wild card. If Greensburg Salem wins and Mt Pleasant loses, then the margin of victory will determine the top 3 spots. Greensburg Salem needs to win by 9 points or more in order to get a guaranteed spot.

In all likelihood, regardless of the results in the Interstate Conference, the 4th place team there should get a wild card. Greensburg Salem, even with a loss, would be 6-4 overall. Highlands, assuming they win the Battle for the Bridge over rival Valley, should also get a wild card spot. Highlands beat Interstate Conference Champs Elizabeth Forward in triple overtime and lost by just 2 to likely Allegheny Seven Conference Champs Imani Christian. The final wild card spot would then come down to the head-to-head game between North Catholic and Hopewell in the Western Hills conference.

2A Wild Card Scenarios

13 total teams – top 3 teams from each conference + 4 Wild Cards

Conference Champions: South Park (5-0, 8-1), Seton LaSalle (5-0, 8-0), Ellwood City (6-0, 8-0)
Clinched: South Allegheny (4-1, 8-1), Steel Valley (4-1, 6-3), Keystone Oaks (4-2, 4-4), Western Beaver (5-1, 6-2)
In the Running: Waynesburg (3-2, 5-4), Washington (3-2, 5-4), Riverside (4-2, 5-4), Mohawk (4-2, 5-3)
Wild Card Hopefuls: OLSH (3-3, 4-4), Carlynton (2-3, 5-4), New Brighton (2-4, 4-5), Union (2-4, 2-6)

Week 9: South Allegheny vs Steel Valley, South Park vs Shady Side Academy, Apollo-Ridge vs Ligonier Valley, Seton LaSalle vs Washington, Sto-Rox vs Waynesburg, Charleroi vs Carlynton, Riverside vs Mohawk, New Brighton vs Union, Beaver Falls vs Ellwood City, Western Beaver vs Freedom, OLSH vs Keystone Oaks

There are two guaranteed playoff spots left to be decided in 2A. The winner of Riverside-Mohawk will get one of them. The other will be determined by the Washington-Seton LaSalle game. If Washington wins, the Prexies get the guaranteed playoff spot. If Seton wins, then Waynesburg gets the last guaranteed spot. The loser of Riverside-Mohawk, Carlynton, and the Century team that does not get an automatic spot (Washington or Waynesburg) are the primary contenders for wild cards. Additionally, the winner of New Brighton-Union will keep a very slim hope alive to earn a wild card spot.

Riverside and Mohawk both have 5 wins overall, more than any other team in the wild card hunt. The loser of this game will almost certainly make the playoffs as a wild card. OLSH has completed conference play with a 4-4 overall record and has a non-conference game against Keystone Oaks this week. That game will be meaningful in the Wild Card race as it will give OLSH a common opponent with the three Century Conference teams. Washington edged out Keystone Oaks 26-25 while Carlynton lost a tight game (10-7) and Waynesburg lost by 20. Union is just 2-6 overall and likely out of the running, even if they were to beat New Brighton. On the other hand, a New Brighton win would get the Lions to 5-5.

Carlynton beat Washington 28-27 last week and is in position to make the playoffs for the first time since 2001. The Cougars own the WPIAL’s longest playoff drought. They can not earn a guaranteed playoff spot, but with a win over lowly Charleroi, Carlynton would end the season with a 6-4 overall record. Those 6 wins would likely be the most of any team in wild card consideration (assuming Washington loses to Seton). Carlynton’s head-to-head win over the Prexies puts the Cougars in prime position to hear their name called on Saturday afternoon during the Selection Show.

At the end of the day, I think the Mohawk-Riverside loser definitely gets a wild card spot. Additionally, I think all three teams from the Century (Waynesburg, Carlynton, and Washington) will get in. OLSH’s game against Keystone Oaks will determine the fate of the Chargers. A close game (win or lose) puts OLSH in comparable territory to the three Century teams. A blowout loss would drop OLSH into consideration with New Brighton for the final wild card spot.

1A Wild Card Scenarios

16 total teams – top 3 from each conference + 4 Wild Cards

Conference Champions: Fort Cherry (5-0, 9-0), Clairton (6-0, 9-0)
Clinched: Neshannock (5-0, 8-1), Laurel (5-0, 5-4), Bishop Canevin (4-1, 6-2), GCC (5-1, 6-2), Leechburg (4-1, 7-1), Jefferson-Morgan (6-0, 9-0), California (6-0, 7-2)
In the Running: South Side Beaver (3-2, 5-3), Rochester (3-2, 3-5), Monessen (3-2, 7-2), Cornell (3-2, 7-2), West Greene (3-3, 3-6), Bentworth (3-3, 5-4), Carmichaels (3-3, 4-3)
Should Be In: Jeannette (2-3, 5-3)
Wild Card Hopefuls: Brentwood (3-2, 4-4), Serra Catholic (2-3, 3-6), Riverview (2-4, 3-5)

Week 9: Laurel at Neshannock, South Side vs Rochester, Summit vs Shenango, Monessen vs Cornell, Fort Cherry vs Serra, Burgettstown vs Bishop Canevin, Brentwood vs Clairton, GCC vs Leechburg, Springdale vs Frazier, Jefferson Morgan vs California, Bentworth vs Avella, Carmichaels vs Mapletown, West Greene vs Beth-Center

Two head-to-head games this week will determine the final conference champions. Laurel has bounced back from an 0-4 start to win 5 in a row and set up a showdown with Lawrence County rivals Neshannock for the Big Seven title. Jefferson-Morgan and California have been on a collision course all year in the Tri-County South. For the final guaranteed playoff spots, the South Side-Rochester winner and the Cornell-Monessen winner will get two of them. In the Tri-County South, there is a three-way tie for third place between Carmichaels, West Greene, and Bentworth. If all three win this week, Bentworth has the inside track to the final playoff spot. If all three lose, Carmichaels would earn the spot. Any combination of wins and losses would revert to head-to-head where Bentworth beat Carmichaels, West Greene beat Bentworth, and Carmichaels beat West Greene.

For the Wild Card, the loser of Cornell-Monessen will be 7-3 and easily in the playoffs. Jeannette’s 1-point win over Brentwood has put the Jayhawks at 6-3, which is good enough for a wild card. Brentwood, at 4-5 and with a close loss to Jeannette, has likely done enough for a wild card as well. If South Side loses to Rochester, the Rams at 5-4 would be deserving of a wild card. A Rochester loss, however, does not bode well for the Rams playoff hopes at just 3-6. One of the three aforementioned teams in the Tri-County South will get a guaranteed playoff spot and the other two will need to hope for the Wild Card. West Greene got smoked in two out-of-conference games against Monessen and Fort Cherry, so their chances do not look good. Bentworth lost to Burgettstown, the last place team in the Black Hills Conference. Carmichaels’ sole non-conference game was a win over Frazier, the only game this season where Carmichaels has scored more than 20 points.

With 4 wild card spots in 1A, the Monessen-Cornell loser and Jeannette will definitely get spots. If South Side loses they will get a spot, but they should be favored against Rochester.
Given the Tri-County South’s historical lack of success in the playoffs, I have a hard time seeing the WPIAL give the 4th place TCS team a wild card spot. This leaves Brentwood and Rochester (assuming they lose to South Side) as the likely candidates for the final two wild cards. The WPIAL could pull a surprise and include a team like Serra Catholic or Riverview in the playoffs. Riverview lost to Brentwood so including the Raiders would mean 3 wild cards would go to the Eastern Conference which seems unlikely. Serra lost by 21 to Leechburg, a comparable result to Brentwood’s 23-point loss last week. Serra’s best result was a 6-point loss to Monessen.

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