2020 NCAA Conference Tournament Preview Week 1

The season of college basketball Conference Tournaments are upon us! While the major conferences are wrapping up their regular seasons this week, some of the smaller conferences tip off their Conference Tournaments and the quest to earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament begins. Of the conferences starting tournaments this week, only a few have the opportunity to significantly impact the bubble picture. In the Gonzaga and San Diego State are solidly in the conversations for #1 seeds. BYU and St. Mary’s are also firmly in the field for at-large consideration. In the Southern Conference, East Tennessee State is in the best position to earn an at-large bid and may be right on the bubble if they don’t win their tournament. Northern Iowa would also be right on the bubble if they don’t win Arch Madness. Beyond that, teams like Utah State, Furman, and UNC-Greensboro may all be in the conversation for at-large bids depending on how the next week plays out.

As conference tournament play heats up, make sure to bookmark our Conference Tournament Tracker to follow along with who has secured automatic bids.

Additionally, I’ll be updating my Bracket Projection much more frequently as we move closer to Selection Sunday.

Atlantic Sun

March 3, 5, 8
Higher seed hosts game

Top Seeds: Liberty, North Florida

Sleeper: Lipscomb

Tournament Format: 8 teams in a normal bracket

Recent History: Last year, Liberty announced themselves on the Atlantic Sun stage by winning the conference tournament in their first season. The Flames upset top-seeded Lipscomb in the conference championship game then pulled a 5-12 upset of Mississippi State in the NCAA Tournament. Before last season, Florida Gulf Coast had appeared in 3 straight A-Sun championship games. The Eagles have reached the final in 6 of the last 8 years. The home court advantage of the A-Sun tournament has played a role as 8 of the last 9 tournament champions were either the #1 or #2 seed.

Preview: Liberty and North Florida split their regular season meetings and tied atop the conference standings. Liberty got the top seed by virtue of the better NET ranking. The Flames have the best defense in the conference, holding opponents to just 53.6 points per game. Liberty is a slow-tempoed team, with only Virginia averaging fewer possessions per game. On the flip side, North Florida plays at a faster pace and has the highest-scoring offense in the league (78.1 PPG) but also the worst defense (72.7 PAPG) among the 8 tournament teams. The Ospreys are also the best 3-point shooting (38%) and free throw shooting (76.5%) team in the league. Last year’s A-Sun Tournament MVP Scottie James (11.0 PPG, 7.4 RPG) returns for Liberty. Watch out for Lipscomb’s Ahsan Asadullah who finished in the Top 5 in the A-Sun in scoring (17.4 PPG), rebounding (9.6 RPG), assists (4.0 APG) and blocks (1.2 BPG).

Big South

March 3, 5, 6, 8
Higher seed hosts game

Top Seeds: Radford, Winthrop

Sleeper: Campbell

Tournament Format: 11 teams with the bottom six playing in three play-in games

Recent History: Winthrop has been a dominant force in the Big South Conference for the last 20 years. Since 1999, the Eagles have won the league tournament 10 times and appeared in the championship game 13 times. Radford has hosted the conference final each of the last two seasons, but was upset by Gardner-Webb last year who came from the #4 seed to beat top-seeded Campbell then second-seeded Radford. The Big South has been upset central over the last 7 years with the top-seeded team claiming the automatic bid only once. Other than Liberty’s shocking run from the 10-seed in 2013, the other 6 champions in that time have all come from the top four seeds.

Preview: Radford and Winthrop tied atop the conference standings this season, though the teams are a contrast of styles. Winthrop has the highest-scoring team in the league (80.8 PPG) while Radford is the best defensive team (66.0 PAPG). Radford junior Carlik Jones won the Tournament MVP two years ago as a freshman and won Conference Player of the Year this season, averaging 19.6 PPG and 5.5 APG this season. Hampton is the second-highest scoring team in the league (77.5 PPG) but also has the worst defense (80.2 PAPG). The Pirates have a dangerous scoring tandem of Jermaine Marrow (24.3 PPG, 6.5 APG) and Benjamin Stanley (22.5 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.5 BPG). If you’re looking for a sleeper during the first week of Championship Week, check out last place Campbell who has the second-best defense (66.4 PAPG) and second-best free throw percentage (73.2%) in the league. If the Camels can find a way to score consistently, they could be a candidate to surprise.

Colonial

March 7-10
Washington, DC

Top Seeds: Hofstra, William & Mary

Sleeper: Northeastern

Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom 4 playing in two play-in games followed by a normal bracket

Recent History: Hofstra is the top seed for the second straight season, but the Pride fell in the title game to Northeastern last year. The Huskies have reached the Championship in two straight seasons. The CAA is not a tournament where you are likely to find a massive upset. One of the top three seeds has won the league’s automatic bid in each of the last 18 seasons. Before last season when Northeastern got smoked by Kansas, the prior four CAA Champions all gave a challenge to their first-round opponent in the NCAA Tournament with Northeastern taking Notre Dame to the wire in 2015, UNC Wilmington challenging Duke and Virginia in 2016 and 2017, and Charleston giving Auburn a run for their money in 2018.

Preview: Top-seeded Hofstra had the best offense in the league (77.1 PPG) and are the best 3-point shooting team at 37%. William & Mary is potentially one of the best storylines to watch in March as the Tribe are one of three original NCAA teams that have never made the Tournament. William & Mary is led by double-double machine Nathan Knight (20.6 PPG, 10.5 RPG, 1.5 BPG). Charleston guard Grant Riller (21.7 PPG, 3.9 APG) won the CAA Tournament’s MVP award two years ago as a sophomore. Even though the CAA rarely sees an upset, don’t count out defending champion Northeastern who has the second-best defense (66.4 PAPG) and the league’s leading scorer Jordan Roland (22.7 PPG).

Horizon

March 3, 5, 9, 10
Indianapolis

Top Seeds: Wright St, Northern Kentucky

Sleeper: Youngstown St

Tournament Format: 9 teams with the bottom 6 playing in the first round. First and second place teams get a bye to the semifinals. The lowest-advancing seed after the first round faces the #3 seed in the quarterfinals.

Recent History: In recent years, the Horizon League has been upset central. In 2016, despite the top two seeds getting byes to the semifinals, both of them lost as the #3 and #4 seeds played for the Championship. In 2017 the top three seeds all fell in their opening games and the semi-finals featured the #4, #6, #9 and #10 seeds. In 2018 2 of the top 3 seeds lost their openers and the semi-finals featured the #2, #4, #6, and #8 seeds. Last year was the first time since 2015 the tournament went nearly to chalk and had the top two teams in the Championship Game. Despite all this craziness, Wright State has been one of the most consistent teams in the league. The Raiders have reached the final in 5 of the last 7 years but won the title only once.

Preview: Wright State and Northern Kentucky have gone back and forth over the last three seasons. Northern Kentucky edged Wright St in the 2017 quarterfinals then went on to claim the Horizon title. In 2018 NKU was the top-seeded team but got upset by Cleveland state which paved the way for second-seeded Wright State to make the Big Dance. Last year, the team’s finally met in the Championship Game with NKU claiming victory. These two teams once again finished at the head of the pack this season and earned the double-byes to the semifinals. Wright St was the second-highest scoring team in the league (81.4 PPG) and boasted the conference Player of the Year Loudon Love (16.3 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 1.4 BPG). Northern Kentucky is the league’s best defensive team (65.3 PPG). Green Bay might be the Horizon’s most entertaining team, averaging 82.2 PPG but giving up 80.6 PAPG and playing at one of the fastest tempos in the nation.

Missouri Valley

March 5-8
St. Louis

Top Seeds: Northern Iowa, Loyola-Chicago

Sleeper: Bradley

Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom 4 playing in two play-in games followed by a normal bracket

Recent History: Four of the last eight Arch Madness Tournaments were won by teams no longer in the conference (Wichita State and Creighton). In 2018, Loyola-Chicago swept through the regular season and the conference tournament then became the darlings of the nation as they made a run to the Final Four from an 11-seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Ramblers won a number of close games with the charm of Sister Jean on the sidelines. Last year Loyola was the top-seeded team in the tournament but fell in the semifinals to fifth-seeded Bradley who then beat #6 seed Northern Iowa in the Arch Madness final. Loyola’s 2018 conference title was the only time in the last five years the top seed has won Arch Madness.

Preview: After Northern Iowa’s run to the Championship Game last season, the Panthers stormed through the regular season this year with a 25-5 record and have themselves in the conversation for an At-Large bid if something goes crazy this week in St. Louis. Northern Iowa’s tandem of sophomore AJ Green (19.7 PPG) and junior Austin Phyfe (11.2 PPG, 8.3 RPG) both made the first-team All-Conference. Green, the Conference Player of the Year, led the MVC in scoring, pacing the Northern Iowa squad that was The Valley’s highest-scoring team (75.8 PPG). Loyola was one of the stingiest defensive units, holding opponents to just 62.4 PAPG. The Ramblers are led by Cameron Kurtwig who was in the Top 5 in the league in scoring (15.3 PPG), rebounds (8.0 PPG), and assists (4.2 APG). Keep an eye out for defending champion Bradley. Last year’s Arch Madness MVP Elijah Childs (14.8 PPG, 8.7 RPG) missed 12 games with an injury but the Braves are 5-2 since his return after going 7-5 without him.

Mountain West

March 4-7
Las Vegas

Top Seeds: San Diego St, Utah St

Sleeper: UNLV

Tournament Format: 11 teams in a normal bracket. The bottom 6 teams play play-in games with a regular 8-team bracket following.

Recent History:  The Mountain West Tournament has not been kind to top seeds. In the last 13 years only two #1 seeds have won the tournament while the #2 seed has won 8 times (including last year). San Diego State has been the most successful at navigating the bracket, reaching the championship game 9 times in the last 11 years. The Aztecs won the automatic bid from the 5-seed in 2018 and reached the title game from the 4-seed last year. Like last season, Utah State finds themselves squarely on the bubble and as the #2 seed. The Aggies might need to repeat as Mountain West Tournament Champions to secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament field.

Preview: San Diego State absolutely rolled through the regular season, amassing a 28-1 overall record with one of the best offenses and defenses in the nation. The Aztecs had impressive non-conference wins over BYU and Creighton and are in position to claim one of the #1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. Their only loss was an upset to UNLV, who they may have to see again in the semifinals. Conference Player of the Year Malachi Flynn (17.6 PPG, 5.1 APG, 1.8 SPG) led an Aztec team that was one of the stingiest defenses in the nation (59.2 PAPG). Utah State’s Sam Merrill (18.8 PPG, 4.0 APG) won the Mountain West Tournament MVP last season and was the conference’s second-leading scorer this season behind Nevada’s Jalen Harris (21.8 PPG).

Northeast

March 4, 7, 10
Higher seed hosts game

Top Seeds: Robert Morris, St. Francis (PA)

Sleeper: Long Island

Tournament Format: 8 teams in a normal bracket that is re-seeded for the semi-finals.

Recent History: Despite the NEC Tournament games being played on the home court of the higher seed, the top-seeded team has only won the league’s automatic bid once in the last seven years. Three schools have mostly dominated this conference over the last 12 years. Long Island has won 4 NEC titles in that span while Mount Saint Mary’s and Robert Morris have both won the 3 times. Farleigh Dickinson’s titles in 2016 and 2019 was the only instances of a different team going Dancing.

Preview: One of the best stories in college basketball this season was Merrimack winning the NEC regular season title in their first year playing Division I basketball. Due to the NCAA’s transition rules between D-II and D-I, Merrimack is not eligible for the postseason until 2024, but the Warriors still get to claim the regular season title. With Merrimack ineligible, second place Robert Morris gets the top seed and homecourt advantage in the NEC Tournament. Robert Morris is the league’s best 3-point shooting team (36.5%) and had the second-best defense among tournament teams (67.4 PAPG). Second-seeded St. Francis has only made the NCAA tournament once in school history (1991) but reached the NEC final in 2 of the last 3 years. The Red Flash are the highest-scoring NEC team (77.5 PPG) and are led by the conference Player of the Year Isaiah Blackmon (19.2 PPG). Long Island’s Raiquan Clark (19.9 PPG) led the conference in scoring.

Ohio Valley

March 4-7
Evansville

Top Seeds: Belmont, Murray St

Sleeper: Austin Peay

Tournament Format: Top 8 teams qualify. Top two seeds receive double-byes to the Semifinals and the #3 and #4 seeds receive byes to the Quarterfinals.

Recent History: Since joining the Ohio Valley Conference in the 2012-13 season, Belmont has dominated the regular season. Winning either the East Division title or Regular Season conference title every season except 2018. The Bruins have had a double-bye in the Tournament every year except 2015 but have only won the automatic bid twice in that span. Last year, Belmont was rewarded with an At-Large bid after falling to Murray State in the OVC Championship Game. Murray State has won each of the last two OVC Tournaments, beating Belmont in the final both times. Prior to that, it was hard to say that the double-bye format was beneficial to the top seeds as the #1 and #2 seeds failed to win the conference tournament in 4 straight seasons from 2014-2017.

Preview: For the second straight season, Belmont and Murray St tied for the regular season OVC title. However, unlike last season neither team has much of a chance for an at-large bid. The Ohio Valley always has one of the best conference tournaments as it features a number of high-scoring and exciting teams. Five of the eight teams in the OVC Tournament average over 75 points per game, led by Belmont (80.4 PPG) and Austin Peay (76.8 PPG). Murray State is the best 3-point shooting team in the league (36.8%), edging out Belmont (35.9%) and Tennessee State (35.7%). The Racers are also the best defensive squad, holding teams to just 64.4 points per game.  Austin Peay finished just a game behind the top two teams and has the conference Player of the Year in Terry Taylor (21.4 PPG, 10.8 APG) who averages a double-double. Keep an eye out for Belmont sophomore Grayson Murphy (9.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG) whose 6.3 assists per game and 2.7 steals per game both lead the conference.

Patriot

March 3, 5, 8, 11
Higher seed hosts game

Top Seeds: Colgate, American

Sleeper: Bucknell

Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom 4 playing in two play-in games followed by a normal bracket

Recent History: Bucknell has won 8 of the last 10 regular season titles but has only reached the Big Dance four times in that span. This year is the first time since 2014 that Bucknell did not win at least a share of the Patriot League title. The Bison have reached the Patriot League final in three straight seasons, facing Colgate each of the last two years. The top seed has won the last three Patriot League Tournaments.

Preview: Colgate, the defending Tournament champions, won the regular season title by two games this season after sharing it with Bucknell last season. Colgate was the highest-scoring team in the league (76 PPG) while the best defensive teams were Navy (64 PAPG) and Boston University (67.2 PAPG) who incidentally will meet in the quarterfinals. Colgate returns a lineup of decorated players including Rapolas Ivanauskas (12.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG) who won the Patriot League’s 2019 Player of the Year award and Jordan Burns (15.6 PPG, 4.5 APG) who was last year’s tournament MVP. American’s Sa’eed Nelson (18.4 PPG, 4.8 APG, 2.8 SPG) won this year’s Patriot League Player of the Year award. If you’re looking for surprising players to take over a game, keep an eye out for Army’s Tommy Funk (17.4 PPG, 6.9 APG) and Holy Cross freshman Joe Pridgen (17.2 PPG).

Southern

March 6-9
Asheville

Top Seeds: East Tennessee St, Furman

Sleeper: UNC-Greensboro

Tournament Format: 10 teams with the bottom 4 playing in two play-in games followed by a normal bracket

Recent History: The SoCon Tournament has been dominated by the top seeds. In the last 12 years, no team seeded lower than 3rd has won the conference tournament and the top seed has won 8 times. East Tennessee St beat UNC Greensboro in the championship game in 2017 then Greensboro returned the favor in the 2018 title game. Greensboro has reached the title game in each of the last 3 seasons. Wofford’s conference title last year was the fist time since 2015 that East Tennessee St did not reach the final.

Preview: The top three teams dominated the SoCon this season. East Tennessee State edged Furman for the conference title with UNC-Greensboro not far behind. ETSU has the best chance of an At-Large bid with a road win over LSU on their resume. Furman and UNC-G are on the outside of the bubble picture looking in, but with NET rankings in the 70s could be contenders for NIT bids. Western Carolina (79.3 PPG) led the conference in scoring and 3-point shooting (37.4%) with Furman (77.1 PPG) and ETSU (75.9 PPG) not far behind. UNC-Greensboro is the league’s best defensive squad, holding opponents to just 62.6 points per game. ETSU (63.1 PAPG) and Furman (66 PAPG) have also been impressive defensively this year. While the top teams are all well-rounded, the most dominant player has been Samford’s Josh Sharkey who leads the SoCon in scoring (18 PPG), assists (7.1 APG), and Steals (2.7 SPG).

Summit

March 7-10
Sioux Falls

Top Seeds: North Dakota St, South Dakota St

Sleeper: Omaha

Tournament Format: 8 teams in a normal bracket

Recent History: Over the last 8 years, two teams have dominated the Summit League . South Dakota State and North Dakota State are the only teams to represent the league in that span with South Dakota St winning 5 titles (including three straight from 2016-2018) and North Dakota St winning the other three, including last year. The two teams have met 3 times in the conference championship game over that span with South Dakota St appearing in 6 of the last 8 league title games. The Jackrabbits won the tournament from the 4-seed in 2017 and the Bison won from the 4-seed last year, which was the only times since 2006 one of the top two seeds did not win the conference title. In the last 5 years, the only other team to reach the title game has been Omaha, who made it to the final in 2 of the last 3 years.

Preview: Given the recent history, it should come as no surprise that North Dakota State and South Dakota State tied for the regular season title this season, splitting their head-to-head matchups. NDSU got the top seed in the tournament thanks to a 2-0 record against third place South Dakota while SDSU split their games. South Dakota State has won at least a share of the regular season title in 5 of the last 6 seasons but was upset by 8th-seeded Western Illinois last year. NDSU was the Summit’s top defensive squad (66.4 PAPG) followed by Fort Wayne (70.1 PAPG) and SDSU (70.3 PAPG). The Summit League does have some explosive offenses with 4 of the 8 tournament teams averaging over 75 points per game, led by Oral Roberts (80.6 PPG) and South Dakota (79.9 PPG). North Dakota State’s Vinnie Shahid (18.6 PPG) is the defending Summit League Tournament MVP. North Dakota guard Marlon Stewart leads the league in scoring (18.9 PPG) and assists (5.2 APG).

Sun Belt

March 7, 9, 11, 14, 15
Campus Sites for opening round, New Orleans

Top Seeds: Little Rock, Texas State

Sleeper: Georgia State

Tournament Format: Top 10 teams qualify with the tip 2 seeds receiving byes to the semifinals, the 3rd and 4th seeds getting byes to the quarterfinals, and the 5th and 6th seeds getting first round byes.

Recent History: For a period in the early 2010s the Sun Belt Tournament was rife with upsets. From 2011-2017, 4 of the 7 tournament winners were seeded lower than 5th. Troy and Western Kentucky have won the “Fun Belt” from the 6th seed and a #7-seed and #9 seed have also claimed the title. Recently, top seeds have performed better with the #1 seeds winning 3 of the last 5 titles. Georgia State has topped UT-Arlington in the Championship in each of the last two years.

Preview: Little Rock rolled through the regular season this year, winning the conference crown by two games. The Trojans have a solid tandem of guard Markquis Nowell (17.4 PPG, 5.0 APG) and big man Ruot Monyyong (12 PPG, 10 RPG, 2.1 BPG)  Second-seeded Texas State had the league’s best defense (64.4 PAPG). The best offenses in the Fun Belt were while two-time defending champion Georgia State (78.3 PPG) and Coastal Carolina (78.1 PPG). Texas State’s Nijal Pearson (19.7 PPG) is the league’s leading scorer.

West Coast

March 5, 6, 7, 9, 10
Las Vegas

Top Seeds: Gonzaga, BYU

Sleeper: San Francisco

Tournament Format: 10 teams qualify for the tournament. The top two seeds receive byes to the semifinals while the #3 and #4 seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals. The 7th-10th seeds play in the first round with the winners advancing to play the #5 and #6 seed in the second round. The tournament does not have games scheduled on Sunday because BYU can not play games on Sundays.

Recent History: Gonzaga has dominated the West Coast Conference tournament, winning 6 straight titles before being upset by St. Mary’s in the final last year. The last time Gonzaga did not appear in the Championship Game of the WCC Tournament was in 1997. Since the tournament moved to the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas in 2009, St. Mary’s has been the only other team to earn the league’s automatic bid. In fact, Gonzaga and St. Mary’s have faced off in 8 of the last 11 WCC title games.

Preview: Gonzaga once again dominated the WCC along with the rest of their schedule, running out to a 29-2 overall record. The Zags are squarely on the 1-seed line for the NCAA Tournament with the only blemish on their conference record a loss at second-place BYU. Gonzaga dominated St. Mary’s this season. Two of the best games this season were between BYU and St. Mary’s with the Gaels winning in overtime at home by 3 points and the Cougars winning by 2 in Provo. A rubber match in the semi-final seems to be on tap. Gonzaga averaged an astounding 87.7 points per game this season while BYU averaged 80.6 per game while leading the conference in 3-point shooting at 42.3%. Defensively, fourth-place Pacific was the stingiest (64.3 PAPG) with St. Mary’s (66.5 PAPG) not far behind. A Gonzaga player once again captured the league’s Player of the Year honors, this time sophomore Filip Petrusev (17.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG) claiming the honor. The Zags have a dominant front line with Petrusev and senior Killian Tillie (13.6 PPG) who won the WCC Tournament MVP two years ago as a sophomore. The WCC’s leading scorer was St. Mary’s Jordan Ford (21.2 PPG). Pepperdine’s Colbey Ross (19.8 PPG, 7.2 APG) was second in scoring and led the league in assists.