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2018 World Cup Scenarios

by Ian

The first two games of group play have concluded and the World Cup is now just one set of games away from the knockout stage. The top two teams in each group will advance to a pre-determined bracket that will eventually decide the World Cup Champion. So far, 6 teams have clinched a spot in the knockout stage while 8 teams have been eliminated. This leaves 18 teams fighting over 10 remaining spots in the last round of games. So far, no team has clinched the top spot in their group, which comes with the added advantage of getting to play a second-place team from another group in the Round of 16. All of the games from each group will be played at the same time so that no team can gain a competitive advantage by playing earlier or later than their group mates. Here is a look at the scenarios for each team to advance to the knockout stage:

Group A

Match Time: Monday, June 25 10:00am EST
Remaining Matches:
 Russia vs Uruguay, Saudi Arabia vs Egypt

  • Russia and Uruguay have both clinched advancement to the knockout stage
  • Russia finishes first with a win or draw
  • Uruguay finishes first with a win
  • Egypt and Saudi Arabia can not advance to the knockout stage

Group B

Match Time: Monday, June 25 2:00pm EST
Remaining Matches: Portugal vs Iran, Spain vs Morocco

  • Portugal clinches a spot in the knockout stage with a win or draw against Iran
  • Spain clinches a spot in the knockout stage with a win or draw against Morocco
  • Iran clinches a spot in the knockout stage with:
    • A win over Portugal
    • A draw AND a loss by Spain
  • If Portugal and Spain both win or both draw, the group winner will be decided by tiebreakers
    • Goal Differential (Currently tied: Portugal +1, Spain +1)
    • Goals Scored (Currently tied: Portugal 4, Spain 4)
    • Head-to-Head Result (Draw 3-3)
    • Fair Play Points (Currently: Spain -1, Portugal -2)
  • Morocco can not advance to the knockout stage

Group C

Match Time: Tuesday, June 26 10:00am EST
Remaining Matches: France vs Denmark, Australia vs Peru

  • France has clinched a spot in the knockout stage
  • France wins the group with a win or draw against Denmark
  • Denmark clinches a spot in the knockout stage with a win or draw against France
  • If Australia beats Peru and Denmark loses to France, the second place team will be decided by tiebreakers.
    • Goal Differential (Currently: Denmark +1, Australia -1)
    • Goals Scored (Currently: Denmark 2, Australia 2)
  • Peru can not advance to the knockout stage

Group D

Match Time: Tuesday, June 26 2:00pm EST
Remaining Matches: Croatia vs Iceland, Nigeria vs Argentina

  • Croatia has clinched a spot in the knockout stage
  • Croatia wins the group with a win or draw against Iceland OR if Nigeria loses or draws
  • Nigeria advances to the knockout stage with a win OR:
    • A Draw and an Iceland loss or draw
    • A Draw and an Iceland win by only 1 goal
  • Iceland advances with a win AND one of the following:
    • A Nigeria-Argentina draw AND Iceland topping Nigeria on a tiebreaker (Goal Differential: Nigeria 0, Iceland -2; Goals Scored: Nigeria 2, Iceland 1)
    • An Argentina win AND Iceland topping Argentina on a tiebreaker (Goal Differential: Iceland -2, Argentina -3; Goals Scored: Iceland 1, Argentina 1)
  • Argentina advances with a win over Nigeria AND an Iceland loss or draw
  • If Iceland and Argentina both win, the advancing team will be decided by tiebreakers  (Goal Differential: Iceland -2, Argentina -3; Goals Scored: Iceland 1, Argentina 1)

Group E

Match Time: Wednesday, June 27 2:00pm EST
Remaining Matches: Brazil vs Serbia, Switzerland vs Costa Rica

  • Brazil advances to the knockout stage with a win or draw against Serbia
  • Switzerland advances to the knockout stage with a win or draw against Costa Rica OR a loss and a Serbia loss
  • Serbia advances to the knockout stage with a win over Brazil
  • If Serbia and Brazil draw and Switzerland loses, the second place team will be decided by tiebreakers (Goal Differential: Switzerland +1, Serbia 0; Goals Scored: Switzerland 3, Serbia 2)
    • Since Switzerland beat Serbia head-to-head, Switzerland advances if Goal Differential and Goals Scored tiebreakers are even
  • If Brazil and Switzerland both win or both draw, the winner of the group will be decided by tiebreakers (Goal Differential: Brazil +2, Switzerland +1; Goals Scored: Brazil 3, Switzerland 3)
  • Costa Rica can not advance to the knockout stage

Group F

Match Time: Wednesday, June 27 10:00am EST
Remaining Matches: Germany vs South Korea, Mexico vs Sweden

  • Mexico advances to the knockout stage with a win or draw against Sweden
  • Germany advances to the knockout stage with a win over South Korea and a Sweden loss or draw
  • Sweden advances to the knockout stage with a win over Mexico and a Germany loss or draw
  • If Germany and Sweden both draw, the first tiebreaker would be Goals Scored (Currently: Germany 2, Sweden 2). If that remains even, Germany would advance based on a head-to-head win.
  • If Germany and Sweden win, there would be a 3-way tie between Mexico, Germany, and Sweden that would be decided based on tiebreakers.
    • Goal Differential: Mexico +2, Germany 0, Sweden 0
    • Goals Scored: Mexico 3, Germany 2, Sweden 2
    • Head-to-head: Mexico beat Germany, Germany beat Sweden, in this scenario Sweden would have beaten Mexico
  • South Korea needs a win and a Sweden loss to force a 3-way tie for second place. In this scenario, the tiebreakers are currently:
    • Goal Differential: Germany 0, Sweden 0, South Korea -2
    • Goals Scored: Germany 2, Sweden 2, South Korea 1
    • Head-to-head: Germany beat Sweden, Sweden beat South Korea, in this scenario South Korea would have beaten Germany

Group G

Match Time: Thursday, June 28 2:00pm EST
Remaining Matches: England vs Belgium, Panama vs Tunisia

  • England and Belgium have advanced to the knockout stage
  • The winner of England-Belgium will win the group and the loser will finish 2nd
  • If England and Belgium draw, the winner will be decided based on tiebreakers:
    • Goal Differential and Goals Scored are currently even and would remain tied in this scenario
    • Fair Play Points (Currently: England -2, Belgium -3)
    • Drawing of Lots
  • Panama and Tunisia can not advance to the knockout stage

Group H

Match Time: Thursday, June 28, 10:00am EST
Remaining Matches: Senegal vs Colombia, Japan vs Poland

  • Japan advances to the knockout stage with a win or draw against Poland
  • Senegal advances to the knockout stage with a win or draw against Colombia
  • Colombia advances to the knockout stage with a win over Senegal OR a draw and a Japan loss

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