After missing the World Cup in 2018, the United States qualified for the 2022 World Cup this week. The game itself was a bit anticlimactic as they lost 2-0 to Costa Rica, but earned the final spot on goal differential. The World Cup this year is in Qatar, and due to the intense summer temperatures the tournament will take place in late November and early December. The Draw will take place on Friday, April 1 at noon Eastern Time. The Draw determines which teams will be aligned in the Group Stage of the World Cup.
How The Draw Works
There are 32 teams that qualify for the World Cup. The teams are divided into 8 groups of 4 teams each, labelled Groups A-H. Qatar as the host nation is automatically in Group A and play the opening game of the Tournament. The remaining teams are divided into “pots” for the randomized draw. To divide the teams, the FIFA World Rankings are used, so in addition to Qatar the other Pot 1 teams are the 7 highest-ranked teams in the field. Pot 2 consists of the next 8 highest-ranked teams. The next 8 teams based on the rankings are in Pot 3. Pot 4 consists of the 5 lowest-ranked teams plus the 3 remaining open spots. The remaining open spots are for the UEFA Path A play-off (Wales, Scotland, or Ukraine), the AFC-CONMEBOL play-off winnr (Peru, Australia, or UAE), and the CONCACAF-OFC play-off winner (Costa Rica or New Zealand). With the exception of UEFA (European) teams, a team can not be drawn into the same Group as another team from their geographic confederation. With the draw aligned based on FIFA rankings rather than simply based on confederation as in years past, the likelihood of a “Group of Death” is somewhat reduced this year.
Pot 1
Qatar (51), Brazil (1), Belgium (2), France (3), Argentina (4), England (5), Spain (7), Portugal (8)
Qatar will automatically be placed in Group A. The remaining 7 teams will then be drawn into Groups B-H. The only team in the Top 8 in the World that did not qualify for the World Cup was Italy, despite winning the European Championships last summer. France is the defending World Cup Champions while Argentina won the Copa America last year. England was the runner-up in the Euros and finished 4th in the last World Cup. Spain is trending in the right direction as they finished 3rd in the Euros and runners-up to France in the UEFA Nations League. Brazil is always dangerous and teams from Argentina and Belgium are looking at the window closing on their golden generations. Portugal has some great young talent coming up the ranks to complement Ronaldo. The best case scenario for the United States would obviously to be drawn with Qatar in Group A. Other than that, a matchup against England would be extremely fun for historical purposes. The US faced both Portugal and Belgium the last time they made the World Cup in 2014.
Pot 2
Mexico (9), Netherlands (10), Denmark (11), Germany (12), Uruguay (13), Switzerland (14), United States (15), Croatia (16)
There are 5 European teams in Pot 1 and 5 European teams in Pot 2. Based on the rules of the Draw, there can be no more than 2 European teams in any Group. The possibility does exist that the top 10 European teams all get drawn into the same groups, but that seems unlikely. The United States is in Pot 2, which also means they can not be in a group with any of these other Pot 2 teams. The only team with a caveat in this group is Uruguay. If they are drawn into a group where Brazil or Argentina is alreday placed, they will slide to the next available group and the next team drawn will fill that spot. Otherwise, this pot will be placed into groups in the order their names are drawn.
Pot 3
Senegal (20), Iran (21), Japan (23), Morocco (24), Serbia (25), Poland (26), South Korea (29), Tunisia (35)
The top-ranked Asian (AFC) and African (CAF) teams land in the third pot. Senegal, Morocco, and Tunisia have the most availability for any group as they are the first CAF teams in the draw. With Qatar as the host country, Japan and South Korea can not be placed in Group A. If either of their names are drawn first they will slide to Group B and the next non-AFC team drawn will be placed in Group A. The other caveat here is for the two European teams (Serbia and Poland). If they are drawn into groups where 2 European teams are already placed, then they will be moved to the next open group where there is either 1 or 0 European teams from the first two pots. The United States would probably prefer not to see Senegal from this group which recently won the African Cup of Nations and features a strong attack led by Sadio Mane. Japan were finalists in the 2019 Asian Cup of Nations which was won by Qatar.
Pot 4
Cameroon (37), Canada (38), Ecuador (46), Saudi Arabia (49), Ghana (60), UEFA play-off winner, AFC-CONMEBOL play-off winner, CONCACAF-OFC play-off winner
By the time this pot rolls around, these teams will have a limited number of slots they can fill. Canada and the CONCACAF-OFC play-off winner can’t be aligned with either Mexico or the United States due to confederation restrictions. Cameroon and Ghana will be limited based on where Senegal, Morocco and Tunisia are placed in Pot 3. Ecuador and the AFC-CONMEBOL winner can’t be slotted with Brazil, Argentina, or Uruguay. Additionally, the AFC-CONMEBOL winner (as well as Saudi Arabia) can’t be slotted with Iran, Japan, or South Korea. This leaves a very limited window for where the AFC-CONMEBOL could land.
This is the 4th time that Ghana has qualified for the World Cup. In each of their three prior appearances they faced the United States. Even though it’s a randomized draw, history would seem to indicate another USA-Ghana matchup could be on the horizon. If the US is drawn into either Brazil or Argentina’s group, that limits their options from Pot 4 to Cameroon, Saudi Arabia, Ghana, or the UEFA play-off winner. Those options could become even more limited depending on which Pot 3 team is drawn with them.
USMNT Scenarios
In the best-case scenario of the US being drawn with Qatar in Group A, there is also a stipulation that each group must contain at least one European team, so either Serbia/Poland from Pot 3 or the play-off winner from Pot 4 will then be slotted into the USA’s group. This stipulation would also apply if the US lands in a group with either Brazil or Argentina. Given that each group must contain at least one European team, it would certainly be preferable to see Serbia, Poland, or the play-off winner (Wales, Scotland, or Ukraine) as opposed to one of the top teams (Belgium, France, England, Spain, or Portugal). The absolute best-case scenario is to land in Group A with Qatar, Tunisia, and the UEFA play-off winner.
The greater likelihood, however, is that the US will land in a group with one of those top European teams. From there, it is still possible that their group contains an additional European team out of the Serbia, Poland or play-off winner contingent. The worst-case scenario would be to land with France or Spain from Pot 1, then with Senegal or Poland from Pot 2, and defensive-minded Ecuador from Pot 3. Pittsburghers would certainly enjoy a scenario where Scotland wins the UEFA play-offs and the US is drawn into a group with both England and Scotland.
