Home WPIAL WPIAL 2018 Week 9 Playoff Scenarios

WPIAL 2018 Week 9 Playoff Scenarios

by Ian

The WPIAL is entering the final week of the 2018 regular season. To date, 50 of the 62 playoff spots have been clinched. This week’s schedule features a number of big games with Conference Titles on the line and teams fighting for the last few playoff spots. There are also a number of Casket Matches this week where the winner will go to the playoffs and the loser will go home to get ready for basketball season. To calculate the WPIAL standings and determine which teams make the playoffs, the WPIAL first considers conference record, then head-to-head results, then Gardner Points, then Tiebreaker Points. Gardner Points are a “strength of victory” metric where a team gets 10 points for each conference win by the teams they defeated. Tiebreaker Points are a “margin of victory” metric where teams gain and lose up to 10 points based on the results of their conference games. A victory or defeat by more than 10 points is counted as only +10 or -10 for purposes of Tiebreaker Points. If teams are still tied after those four tiebreakers, a coin flip is conducted. In the event of a 3-way tie requiring a coin flip, representatives from each school will flip coins simultaneously and the school with the odd result (i.e. one tail vs two heads) will be eliminated and the tiebreakers will revert back to head-to-head between the other two.

It is also worth noting that if two or more teams tie atop a conference with the same record, the WPIAL considers them to be Conference “Co-Champions” and will award both schools a Conference Championship trophy. The WPIAL does this regardless of tiebreakers and head-to-head results. For purposes of this article, “Conference Title” refers to the team that would win the tiebreakers for first place. These tiebreakers do matter in determining which teams earn home playoff games and for playoff seeding.

For a visual look at where all of the teams stand, check out our WPIAL Standings Page. For a closer look at the Wild Card races in 5A and 1A, check out the Wild Card Standings Page. Thanks to Taps n’at, the sponsor of all of our WPIAL content this season.

6A Playoff Scenarios

Playoff Structure: The top 6 teams make the playoffs. The top 2 teams get first round byes.

Spots Clinched (5 of 6)

Pine-Richland and North Allegheny have clinched first round byes.

Central Catholic, Seneca Valley, and Mt. Lebanon have clinched playoff spots.

Conference Title

The winner of Pine-Richland vs North Allegheny wins the Conference Title.

Home Playoff Games

  • Central Catholic clinches a home playoff game with a win over Mt. Lebanon OR a Seneca Valley loss.
  • Seneca Valley clinches a home playoff game if Central Catholic wins.
  • Mt. Lebanon clinches a home playoff game with a win over Central Catholic AND a Seneca Valley loss.
  • If Mt. Lebanon beats Central Catholic and Seneca Valley wins, third place will be decided by tiebreaker points (Currently: Central Catholic +26, Seneca Valley +13, Mt Lebanon +13). Fourth place will be decided by head-to-head results:
    • Central Catholic beat Seneca Valley
    • Seneca Valley beat Mt Lebanon
    • In this scenario, Mt Lebanon would have defeated Central Catholic

Remaining Clinching Scenarios (1 spot):

  • Canon-McMillan clinches their first playoff berth since 2008 with a win over Butler OR a Norwin loss.
  • Norwin clinches a playoff berth with a win over Seneca Valley AND a Canon-McMillan loss.

5A Playoff Scenarios

Playoff Structure: The top 5 teams in each of the three conferences make the playoffs. One of the three 6th place teams earns a “wild card.” The top two teams in each conference plus 2 of the 3 third place teams get home playoff games in the first round. The 5A Wild Card Standings can be found here.

Allegheny Eight Conference

Spots Clinched (4 of 5)

West Allegheny, Upper St Clair, Peters Twp, and Bethel Park have clinched playoff spots.

Conference Title

  • Peters Twp clinches the Conference Title with a win over Baldwin AND a West Allegheny win; OR if both West Allegheny and Upper St Clair lose.
  • West Allegheny clinches the Conference Title with a win over Moon AND a Peters Twp loss.
  • Upper St Clair clinches the Conference Title with a win over Bethel Park AND a West Allegheny loss.

Remaining Clinching Scenarios (1 spot):

  • Woodland Hills clinches a playoff spot with a win over Chartiers Valley OR a Baldwin loss.
  • Baldwin clinches the 5th place playoff spot with a win over Peters Twp AND a Woodland Hills loss.
  • If Baldwin beats Peters Twp, they will clinch a playoff spot regardless of the Woodland Hills result as a 3-win Baldwin team would earn the Wild Card.

6th Place Wild Card Scenarios

  • Baldwin will finish 6th with a loss OR if Woodland Hills wins.
  • Woodland Hills will finish 6th with a loss AND a Baldwin win.

Big East Conference

Spots Clinched (5 of 5)

Gateway, McKeesport, Penn-Trafford, Franklin Regional, and Latrobe have clinched playoff spots.

Gateway has clinched a home playoff game.

Conference Title

  • Gateway clinches the Conference Title with a win over McKeesport OR a loss by less than 10 and a Penn-Trafford win.
  • McKeesport clinches the Conference Title with a win over Gateway AND a Penn-Trafford loss.
  • McKeesport can also win the Conference Title with a win over Gateway by 10+ points and a Penn-Trafford win by less than 10 points.
  • If McKeesport beats Gateway by at least 10 points and Penn-Trafford beats Franklin Regional by at least 10 points, Gateway, McKeesport, and Penn-Trafford will tie for the Conference Title. A coin flip will decide the standings ordering if necessary for the 3rd place Home Games.

6th Place Wild Card Scenarios

  • Connellsville will finish 6th with a win over Albert Gallatin.
  • If Albert Gallatin beats Connellsville, there will be a 3-way tie for 6th place in the Big East between Connellsville, Plum, and Albert Gallatin. All 3 of those teams will have just 1 conference win and will be eliminated from Wild Card contention.

Northern Conference

Spots Clinched (3 of 5)

Penn Hills, Mars, and North Hills have clinched playoff spots.

Penn Hills has clinched a home playoff game.

Conference Title

  • Penn Hills clinches the Conference Title with a win over North Hills OR a Mars win.
  • North Hills clinches the Conference Title with a win over Penn Hills AND a Mars loss.

Remaining Clinching Scenarios (2 spots)

  • The winner of the Kiski-Armstrong game clinches a playoff spot.
  • Shaler clinches a playoff spot with a win over Fox Chapel.
  • The loser of Kiski-Armstrong clinches a playoff spot if Fox Chapel beats Shaler.

6th Place Wild Card Scenarios

  • If Kiski wins, they are 4th.
    • If Shaler also wins they are 5th and Armstrong is 6th.
    • If Shaler loses, Armstrong is 5th and Fox Chapel is 6th.
  • If Kiski loses:
    • If Shaler and Mars win: Shaler is 4th, Armstrong is 5th, and Kiski is 6th
    • If Shaler and Hampton win: Shaler is 4th, Armstrong is 5th, Hampton is 6th
    • If Fox Chapel wins: Armstrong is 4th, Kiski is 5th, Fox Chapel is 6th

5A 6th Place Wild Card

The 6th place team in the Big East Conference can NOT earn the Wild Card.

If Woodland Hills and Baldwin both win, Baldwin will earn the Wild Card.

If either Woodland Hills or Baldwin lose, the Wild Card will be decided by tiebreakers between the Allegheny Eight and Northern Conference teams. Here is a look at their current eligible teams and their tiebreaker standings:

5A Sixth Place Standings
Team Conf
Record
Tiebreakers Overall
Record
PF PA Conf Wins
Gardner WPIAL
Woodland Hills 2-4 30 -3 3-6 140 145
Kiski Area 2-4 30 -10 3-6 185 307
 Shaler 2-4 30 -35 3-6 165 282
Armstrong 2-4 20 -13 4-5 236 212
 Baldwin 2-4 10 -17 4-5 215 191
Fox Chapel 1-5 10 -40 2-7 138 303
 Hampton 1-5 20 -31 2-7 134 227

If Hampton beats Mars, the Talbots would have more Gardner Points than any 2-win team from the Allegheny Eight and would earn the Wild Card. In order for Hampton to finish 6th, they need to beat Mars AND need Armstrong to beat Kiski AND Shaler to beat Fox Chapel.

If Woodland Hills finishes 6th in the Allegheny Eight, the Wolverines will earn the Wild Card unless Hampton finishes 6th in the Northern Conference. In that case, Hampton would earn the Wild Card.

If Baldwin loses and finishes 6th,  they would lose a Gardner Points tiebreaker for the Wild Card against Kiski or Hampton.

If Fox Chapel and Baldwin both finish 6th at 2-5:

  • Fox Chapel earns the Wild Card if Woodland Hills OR Hampton OR West Allegheny win.
  • Baldwin earns the Wild Card if Chartiers Valley, Mars, and Moon ALL win.

If Armstrong and Baldwin both finish 6th at 2-5:

  • Armstrong earns the Wild Card if Woodland Hills and Hampton win.
  • If West Allegheny beats Moon:
    • Armstrong earns the Wild Card if either
      • Woodland Hills and Mars both win
      • Chartiers Valley and Hampton both win
    • Tiebreaker points will decide the Wild Card if Chartiers Valley and Mars both win. (Currently: Armstrong -13, Baldwin -17)
  • If Moon beats West Allegheny:
    • Baldwin earns the WIld Card if Chartiers Valley and Mars both win.
    • Tiebreaker points will decide the Wild Card if either:
      • Woodland Hills and Mars both win
      • Chartiers Valley and Hampton both win

5A Home Playoff Games

The top 2 from each conference and 2 of the 3 third place teams get home games.

Penn Hills and Gateway have clinched home playoff games.

Peters Twp, West AlleghenyMcKeesport, Mars, and North Hills will all finish in the Top 3 in their conferences.

The winner of Upper St Clair-Bethel Park will finish in the Top 3.

Penn-Trafford finishes in the Top 3 with a win over Franklin Regional.
Franklin Regional finishes in the Top 3 with a win and a McKeesport win. If Gateway beats McKeesport the three-way tie between McKeesport, Franklin Regional, and Penn-Trafford will be decided by tiebreaker points.

There are 128 scenarios in play involving these 11 teams battling for the 8 playoff spots. Any team that gets to 6 wins will get a home playoff game UNLESS all three conferences end in 3-way ties at 6-1.

4A Playoff Scenarios

Playoff Structure: The top 4 teams from each of the two conferences make the playoffs. The top two teams in each conference will get home playoff games in the first round.

Big Eight Conference

Spots Clinched (3 of 4)

Thomas Jefferson, Belle Vernon, and West Mifflin have clinched playoff spots.

Conference Title

  • Thomas Jefferson clinches the Conference Title with a win over West Mifflin OR with a loss by less than 10 and a Belle Vernon win.
  • West Mifflin clinches the conference title with a win over Thomas Jefferson AND a Belle Vernon loss.
  • West Mifflin can also win the Conference Title with a win over Thomas Jefferson by 10+ points and a Belle Vernon win by less than 10 points.
  • If Belle Vernon wins by at least 10 points and West Mifflin beats Thomas Jefferson by at least 10 points, the Conference Champion will be decided by a coin toss.

Home Playoff Games

  • Belle Vernon clinches a home playoff game with a Thomas Jefferson win
  • If West Mifflin beats Thomas Jefferson:
    • By less than 10 points
      • If Belle Vernon beats Ringgold, Belle Vernon is second and West Mifflin is third.
      • If Belle Vernon loses to Ringgold, West Mifflin is first and Thomas Jefferson is second.
    • By 10+ points:
      • If Belle Vernon loses OR wins by less than 10 points, West Mifflin is first and Thomas Jefferson is second.
      • If Belle Vernon wins by 10+ points, a coin toss will decide the Conference Title then head-to-head will decide second place.
        • Thomas Jefferson beat Belle Vernon
        • Belle Vernon beat West Mifflin
        • In this scenario, West Mifflin beat Thomas Jefferson

Remaining Clinching Scenarios (1 spot)

  • The winner of Greensburg Salem-Indiana clinches a playoff spot.
    • Greensburg Salem has not made the playoffs since 2011.
    • Indiana has not made the playoffs since 2014.

Northwest Eight Conference

Spots Clinched (3 of 4)

South Fayette has clinched the Conference Title.

Blackhawk and Beaver have clinched playoff spots.

Home Playoff Games

The winner of Blackhawk-Beaver will finish second and get a home playoff game.

Remaining Clinching Scenarios (1 spot)

  • Montour clinches a playoff spot with a win over South Fayette OR a New Castle loss.
  • If Montour loses to South Fayette and New Castle beats Ambridge, 4th place will be a 3-way tie between Montour, Knoch, and New Castle.
    • Knoch plays a non-conference game and can only make the playoffs if Montour loses by 9+ AND New Castle wins by 3 or fewer.
    • If New Castle wins by 10 or more and Montour loses, New Castle will make the playoffs.
    • If New Castle wins by fewer than 10 and Montour loses, 4th place will be decided by Tiebreaker Points (Currently: Montour -4, Knoch -12, New Castle -15).

3A Playoff Scenarios

Playoff Structure: The top 4 teams from each of the two conferences make the playoffs. The top two teams in each conference will get home playoff games in the first round.

Big East Conference

Spots Clinched (4 of 4)

Derry, North Catholic, Elizabeth Forward, and Freeport have clinched playoff spots.

Conference Title

  • Derry clinches the Conference Title with a win by 8+ over Burrell AND a North Catholic win.
  • North Catholic clinches the Conference Title with a win over Deer Lakes AND a Derry loss.
  • Elizabeth Forward clinches the Conference Title with a win over Yough AND a North Catholic loss.
  • If Derry wins by less than 8 points and both North Catholic, and Elizabeth Forward win, OR if Derry, North Catholic, and Elizabeth Forward all lose, Tiebreaker Points will decide the Conference Title. (Currently: Derry +53, North Catholic +50, Elizabeth Forward +39)

Home Playoff Games

  • Derry clinches a home playoff game with a win over Burrell by at least 8 points
  • North Catholic clinches a home playoff game with a win over Deer Lakes
  • If all three teams tie and Tiebreaker Points determines first place, or if two teams finish in a tie for either first or second place, head-to-head results will determine second place.
    • Derry beat North Catholic
    • Elizabeth Forward beat Derry
    • North Catholic beat Elizabeth Forward

Tri-County West Conference

Spots Clinched (4 of 4)

Aliquippa has clinched the Conference Title.

Beaver Falls has clinched a home playoff game.

Quaker Valley and Central Valley have clinched playoff spots.

2A Playoff Scenarios

Allegheny Conference

Spots Clinched (3 of 4)

Shady Side Academy, Steel Valley, and Avonworth have clinched playoff spots.

Shady Side Academy has clinched a home playoff game.

Conference Title

  • Shady Side Academy clinches the Conference Title with a win over Avonworth OR a loss by 8 or fewer.
  • Avonworth clinches the Conference Title with a win over Shady Side Academy by 9 or more points.

Home Playoff Games

  • Steel Valley clinches a home playoff game if Shady Side Academy beats Avonworth

Remaining Clinching Scenarios (1 spot)

The winner of East Allegheny-Valley clinches a playoff spot.

Interstate Conference

Spots Clinched (3 of 4)

Charleroi has clinched the Conference Title.

McGuffey and Washington have clinched playoff spots.

Home Playoff Game

The winner of McGuffey-Washington will get a home playoff game.

Remaining Clinching Scenarios (1 spot)

The winner of Beth-Center vs Frazier will clinch a playoff spot.

Midwestern Conference

Spots Clinched (4 of 4)

Mohawk has clinched the Conference Title.

Freedom has clinched a home playoff game.

Riverside and New Brighton have clinched playoff spots.

Three Rivers Conference

Spots Clinched (2 of 4)

Burgettstown has clinched the Conference Title

South Side Beaver has clinched a home playoff game.

Remaining Clinching Scenarios (2 spots)

  • The final two spots will be decided between South Allegheny, Seton LaSalle, and Serra Catholic.
  • South Allegheny clinches a playoff spot with a win over Burgettstown
  • If South Allegheny wins:
    • Seton LaSalle clinches a playoff spot with a win over Carlynton OR a Serra loss
    • Serra clinches a playoff spot with a win over Fort Cherry AND a Seton LaSalle loss
  • If South Allegheny loses:
    • Serra clinches a playoff spot with a win over Fort Cherry OR a Seton LaSalle win
    • Seton LaSalle clinches a playoff spot with a win over Carlynton
    • South Allegheny clinches a playoff spot if Serra wins AND Seton LaSalle loses
  • If South Allegheny, Serra, and Seton LaSalle ALL lose, third place will be decided by tiebreaker points between South Allegheny (Currently: +3) and Seton LaSalle (Currently: 0).
    • Fourth place would be decided between the loser of the tiebreaker and Serra Catholic, based on head-to-head (Serra beat South Allegheny, Seton LaSalle beat Serra).

1A Playoff Scenarios

Big Seven Conference

Spots Clinched (2 of 2)

OLSH has clinched the Conference Title

Rochester has clinched second place.

Laurel has clinched third place.

Eastern Conference

Spots Clinched (2 of 2)

Clairton and Jeannette have clinched playoff spots.

Clairton has clinched a home playoff game.

Imani Christian has clinched third place.

The winner of Clairton-Jeannette will win the Conference Title.

Tri-County South Conference

Spots Clinched (2 of 2 + 1 Wild Card)

West Greene, Monessen, and California have clinched a playoff spots.

Conference Title

If Monessen and California both win by 10+, the Conference Champion will be decided by a coin flip between West Greene, California, and Monessen.

If either Monessen or California do not win by 10+, that team will finish third. The Conference Champion will be decided between the other two teams based on head-to-head results.

  • Monessen beat California
  • West Greene beat Monessen
  • California beat West Greene

If BOTH Monessen and California do not win by 10+, West Greene will win the Conference Title.

1A Second Place Home Game

Rochester is second in the Big Seven.

The loser of Jeannette-Clairton is second in the Eastern Conference

West Greene, Monessen, or California will be second in the Tri-County South, most likely based on head-to-head results after a coin flip tiebreaker.

If Jeannette beats Clairton, Clairton will get the Second Place Home Game.

If Clairton beats Jeannette AND both Monessen or California win, the second place team from the Tri-County South will get the Second Place Home Game.

1A Wild Card Scenarios

Even if the Tri-County South does not finish in a 3-way tie, all three of the teams have enough Gardner Points to secure one of the Wild Card spots. The second Wild Card spot will be between Laurel and Imani Christian.

The 1A Wild Card will not be decided until Saturday afternoon. Laurel plays Northgate and Imani Christian plays Chartiers-Houston in a non-conference game that counts towards the Wild Card Standings.

1A Second Wild Card Standings
Team Conf
Record
Tiebreakers Overall
Record
PF PA Conf Wins
Gardner WPIAL
 Laurel 4-2 100 +11 5-4 266 228
Imani Christian 4-2 80 +20 6-3 336 161

Gardner Points Analysis

  • Imani Christian can gain 30 Gardner Points by beating Chartiers-Houston (3-4 in conference play).
    • Imani is guaranteed to gain 10 Gardner Points because Leechburg and Springdale play each other and Imani defeated both.
    • GCC and Riverview play non-conference games which can not impact Imani’s Gardner Points total.
  • Laurel will not gain any Gardner Points from beating Northgate (0-6 in conference play).
    • Sto-Rox and Union play non-conference games which can not impact Laurel’s Gardner Point total.
    • Cornell plays OLSH and Bishop Canevin plays Rochester on Friday night. Laurel could gain 10 Gardner Points if either of those teams win.

Wild Card Clinching Scenarios

If EITHER Cornell or Bishop Canevin lose on Friday, Imani Christian can clinch the second Wild Card spot with a win over Chartiers-Houston.

If BOTH Cornell and Bishop Canevin win on Friday, Imani Christian needs to beat Chartiers-Houston by at least 2 points in order to clinch the second Wild Card. If Imani wins by just 1 point, they can still earn the Wild Card if Laurel wins by less than 10 points or if Laurel loses.

Laurel clinches the Wild Card with a win over Northgate AND an Imani Christian loss.

If BOTH Cornell and Bishop Canevin win on Friday AND Laurel beats Northgate by 10 AND Imani beats Chartiers-Houston by 1, Laurel and Imani will finish tied in all tiebreakers and require a coin flip to determine the second Wild Card.

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