I don’t care what anyone tells you, there is no one that can predict what kind of season the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Kenny Pickett will have in 2023. You can say he’ll be better and leave it at that. You can say he’ll be worse and stand pat right there. By choosing either of those stances you can at the very least claim to be right or wrong with very little baggage. This exercise isn’t that easy so I’m looking at some history as a guide while also considering those around Pickett as well.
For a refresher, let’s recall that Pickett finished the 2022 season with the following numbers.
Record: 7-5
Completions: 245
Attempts: 389
Completion Percentage: 63%
Touchdowns: 7
Interceptions: 9
Yards: 2,404
Rushes: 55
Yards: 237
Touchdowns Rushing: 3
Quarterback Rating: 51.5
For historical reference, Jared Hammond of the33rdteam.com did an excellent analysis of quarterbacks taken in round one between 2010 and 2019. What Hammond found was that more than half of these guys saw improvement from year one to year two. For example…
- 63% of them improved their completion percentage.
- 63% improved their yards per game average.
- 60% improved their touchdowns per game.
- 70% improved their interceptions per game.
For further reference, Joe Burrow improved from 65% completion percentage to 70% in year two. Lamar Jackson went from 58% to 65% and Patrick Mahomes went from 63% to 66%. Keep in mind that Mahomes sat his rookie season behind Alex Smith. Some QBs did go down however. Justin Herbert went from 66% to 65% and Baker Mayfield went from 64% to 59%.
What cannot be measured are the unique situations that each QB faced. Some dealt with more injuries than others whether to themselves or to their lines or playmakers. Overall talent around them changed like Joe Burrow for example who added Ja’Marr Chase in year two. And certainly you have to mention coaches because they have significant sway over QB performance as well.
Pickett Will Improve…
The justification for improved numbers from Kenny Pickett in year two are many. He will have had much more time with Diontae Johnson. George Pickens will have a stellar rookie year to build on and his offensive line will be improved, perhaps significantly. His overall chemistry with tight end Pat Freiermuth got better and better as the season wore on so that has to be something to build on.
Pickett himself will be a year wiser. The game should have slowed down for him by the time he was walking of the field at Acrisure Stadium in January. He will also have had a full offseason to spend with Matt Canada and Mike Sullivan while also spending a great deal of time on his fundamentals.
Pickett Will Not Improve…
As of right now, Pickett doesn’t have a slot receiver – a proven one anyway – that he can rely on. If everything goes to plan, Calvin Austin III is fully recovered from the injury that robbed him of his entire rookie campaign. In all fairness however, we’ve seen guys in similar positions that just never caught on. We can only hope that Austin III does.
I mentioned above that Pickett has a full year with Matt Canada. Well, that also counts as a negative too. Much was expected of Canada in the year after Ben Roethlisberger but much of what Canada produced left a lot to be desired. Diontae Johnson had ZERO touchdown receptions. The Red Zone offense was brutal and the passing game overall was elementary at best.
Some will suggest that this was because Canada had to deal with a rookie QB and therefore the playbook was scaled back significantly. While this may be accurate, Canada has a lot to do in order to win back the fan base.
Summary
Mike Tomlin is not making it a secret; he wants to win with a dominant running game and solid defense. The team’s additions to the lines on both sides of the ball speak to this. Therefore, to expect Kenny Pickett to suddenly put up 30 TDs and 4,000 yards just isn’t realistic. In order to get the team into the top 14 in scoring, the Steelers will need to improve by an entire touchdown per game in 2023. Only two teams (DET and JAX) did that from 2021 to 2022.
All of this in mind, I think Pickett getting to 20 TD passes and 3,500 yards is realistic. This of course keeps all things equal in terms of injury, etc. In other words, none of us have any idea but improvement is absolutely expected.
