Welcome to NFL Draft Week! For the first 12 years of Mike Tomlin’s tenure as head coach, the Steelers did not make a trade involving their first round pick. However, they departed from that trend in a big way. In 2019, they moved up from the 20th slot to the #10 pick to draft Devin Bush. Then later that year, they traded away their 2020 first round pick for Minkah Fitzpatrick. Last year, things returned to normal with the Steelers holding pat at 24th and drafting Najee Harris. At his pre-draft press conference, Kevin Colbert discussed the possibilities of trading both up or back, which he did not completely rule out as he has done in years past.
Kevin Colbert said they will touch base with every team below them and above them about potentially moving on the board. They'll calculate all the value for all spots.
Just casually threw out: "We'll calculate the value to move up from 20 to 7."
Maybe a slip? I don't know.
— Nick Farabaugh (@FarabaughFB) April 25, 2022
The Steelers have 7 picks in the 2022 Draft. Overall, the Steelers have the 20th, 52nd, 84th, 138th, 208th, 225th and 241st selections. Over the years, the NFL has developed “trade value charts” starting with a revolutionary one by Jimmy Johnson in the 1990s. With the adoption of the most recent CBA and the ability to give first round picks an extra year on their contract with the “fifth year option” the value of picks changed slightly. Rich Hill of PatsPulpit.com took all of the trade data since the new CBA was adopted and created a new trade value chart. Essentially, the 5th year option clause gives a higher value to first round picks, at about the increased cost of an extra 5th rounder from the previous chart. While each team places their own values on certain draft picks, the Steelers 2019 first round trade with Denver worked out nearly evenly based on the Jimmy Johnson chart. For purposes of this article, I used Johnson’s chart to determine trades that would be approximately equal in value.
Trade Up Scenarios
Into the Top 10
The Steelers have the 20th overall pick, the same place they were in 2019 when they moved up to #10 in a deal with Denver. That year, the Steelers traded their 1st, 2nd, and future 3rd rounder to move up 10 spots on the draft board. The Steelers don’t have the ammunition to make a move up into the Top 5. The highest possible spot would likely be with Carolina at #6. While the Panthers have scouted quarterbacks heavily, they have just one pick in the first three rounds of the draft and would certainly be looking to trade down and add some picks. A move up with Carolina would cost next year’s first round pick (and potentially more). The two New York teams have multiple picks in the Top 10 of this draft, and could also be potential trading partners with the Steelers. A trade with the Giants at 7 would similarly require next year’s first rounder while a trade with the Jets at 10 could likely be a similar structure to the Devin Bush deal. Was Colbert sending a message by mentioning the #7 pick, which is the Giants second of the first round and perhaps a more enticing spot for them to move back from?
Ahead of Baltimore
The Ravens have the 14th overall pick in the draft and certainly would not trade with the Steelers. This would leave three options – Washington, Minnesota, and Houston to get into the Top 15 and ahead of the Ravens. A deal with Washington would cost nearly as much as the Devin Bush package. The Commanders don’t have a 3rd or a 5th round pick in this year’s draft, but the Steelers also lack a 5th rounder. The Steelers and Vikings cold work out a relatively even trade where the Steelers would move up from 20 to 12 and give Minnesota their second round pick and get the Vikings 5th rounder (#156) in return. Houston is an intriguing option as the Texans also have the #3 overall pick so they may be willing to move down from #13. A trade that sent the Steelers 1st and 2nd rounders to Houston in exchange for #13 and a 4th rounder (#107) would be a perfectly balanced trade.
Philadelphia and New Orleans
The Eagles and Saints each have two picks in the later teens of the draft with the Eagles holding a strategic advantage (15th and 18th while the Saints are 16th and 19th). Both teams have the ammunition to make a move up the draft board so it would be surprising to see them hold pat on these four picks. That said, depending on which teams might make a move up the board, the Steelers could get up to 15 or 16 with a combination of their first and third round picks. They may have to give up a little extra to Philly and might be able to get a later round pick back from New Orleans in those scenarios.
Trade Down Scenarios
The Packers have 11 picks in the draft, including 2 first rounders. With New England picking 21st and having just taken a quarterback, the Steelers could move down 2 spots and get back both of Green Bay’s 4th rounders (#132 and #140). The Cowboys have four picks in the 5th round of the draft where the Steelers have none, but it might be difficult to work out a deal with the Cowboys based on the other picks they have. The Chiefs have two picks in each of the first four rounds of the draft, including consecutive selections at 29 and 30. A deal could be worked out between the Steelers and Chiefs to move down in exchange for either a second round pick or a third rounder plus some additional Day 3 picks. The Lions also have 2 picks in 3 slots between the last of the first round (#32) and the second of the second round (#34). Trading back to #32 has the distinctive advantage of still holding the fifth year option available to first round picks. A move to #34 would not allow for that. The Steelers and Lions could work out a perfectly balanced trade of #20 for #32 and the Lions third rounder (#66).
Trade Out Scenarios
As previously mentioned, trading out of the first round loses the potential option of a fifth year option on a rookie contract. That said, there are a handful of teams with early second round picks that could look to get back into the first round. The Jaguars could trade the top picks of the 2nd and 3rd round to the Steelers in a relatively even deal. Three teams have multiple picks in the top half of the second round – the Jets, Seahawks, and Bears. The Jets likely wouldn’t have to give up both of their 2nd rounders to get the Steelers pick. Seattle holds the 40th and 41st picks and Chicago has the 39th and 48th picks, both of whom would likely have to give up those or some other combination to get the Steelers first rounder.
