What’s better than winning a Super Bowl wager? Correctly picking which team will win the Vince Lombardi trophy or the MVP even before the regular season starts.
While NFL futures require a little bit more patience than money lines, points spread, and totals, they are a great way to win big and are becoming quite popular in Pennsylvania sports betting. On top of higher potential payouts, NFL futures also give you better hedging opportunities to minimize losses.
However, they also come with a higher risk, and you need a good strategy if you’re going to stand any chance of winning. Below are some key tips to use when betting on NFL futures.
Research and Analysis
When researching NFL futures, you need to go beyond the team’s past performances. We’ve seen teams win the division championship and go on to falter in the following season. One of the ways you can gauge a team’s potential is to look at player trades and draft picks. Injuries to star players and coaching changes can also have a huge impact on performance.
Remember, the season can be long. You should therefore look for trends that can impact performance along the way. Are there aging players whose level may decline over the course of the season? How does the team develop young players? What about team chemistry? All this can give you a good idea of what to expect.
Shop Around for Odds
Different sportsbooks offer different odds on NFL futures markets, and even the slightest of differences can add value to your bet. Take some time to compare odds from multiple sources and choose the one that offers the highest payout.
If you’re short on time, you can use odd comparison tools to get a quicker look. However, these tools may not give you the most up-to-date odds, so ensure you confirm with the sportsbook.
Bet Early, Bet Late
Another trick is to bet early and lock your favorites before the odds drop. If your pick has a good preseason, you can lose significant value in your bet. On the other hand, if you’re not very confident in your analysis, waiting for the preseason and watching the line movements can give you an idea about your pick’s potential.
Manage Your Bankroll
Before you start wagering on NFL futures, it’s important to create a budget. Determine how much you’re willing to risk and make sure it’s an amount you can afford to lose. Once you have a budget, stick to it and avoid chasing losses.
Consider Value Bets
Every season, you’re always going to find an undervalued team or player where the odds don’t match the actual probability. If you can find that team or player, you can make a tidy profit come the end of the season.
Diversify Your Bets
Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Spread your bets across multiple NFL futures markets to reduce risk. One way you can do that is by betting on the division winner and the total number of points at the end of the regular season. You can also bet on different teams to win the Super Bowl, conference championships, and division titles. This way, you can increase your chances of winning even when one of your bets fails early in the season.
Fade the Public
While you can get analysis online and from friends and experts, don’t take any speculation as given. Most “experts” out there go with what’s popular, and public perception can turn out to be way off the mark. If your analysis suggests that the public is undervaluing a team, don’t be afraid to bet against the consensus. And given that public perception can affect lines, this can give you an opportunity to get a potentially high payout.
