With the Steelers loss to the Seahawks on Sunday, they lost their slim lead over several teams on a wildcard spot in the playoffs.
The Steelers at 6-5 are now tied with 4 other teams (Jets, Colts, Texans, and Chiefs), and just one game ahead of two other teams (Bills and Raiders). The problem is, the Steelers conference record is not good at 3-4.
The good news is the Steelers only play conference games for the rest of the season. The bad news is, it won’t be an easy road with some quality teams left to play.
When trying to figure out what needs to happen for the Steelers to make the playoffs, I did some tinkering with ESPN’s NFL Playoff Machine.
The first thing I did, was input the Steelers winning 4 out of their last 5 games, with the one loss coming against either Cincinnati or Denver. Then, whenever possible I had a team that the Steelers were competing with winning their games (Jets, Colts, Texans, Chiefs, Bills, and Raiders). I wanted to create a worst case scenario for the Steelers wherever possible in games that didn’t involve the Steelers to see if they still completely controlled their own destiny when finishing 4-1.
The answer is no. If they lose 1 more game then they will need some help. In the scenario described above, the Jets and Chiefs would get in over the Steelers. However, for that to happen the Jets would have to beat the Bills on the road, and the Titans and Patriots at home. They also play the Giants or Cowboys, but they could lose one of those and be fine since it’s an NFC game.
Obviously anything can happen on any given Sunday, so you can never speak in absolutes. It’s possible the Jets finish out the season undefeated.
That being said, I feel pretty good about the Steelers making the playoffs if they win 4 of their last 5, meaning they need to win either a tough game in Cincinnati or against the Broncos at home, and take care of business against the Colts, Ravens, and Browns.
From there, I decided to play out a scenario where the Steelers finish 3-2, losing to the Bengals and Broncos. In that situation, I could still come up with a scenario where the Steelers make it in as the 6 seed with a 9-7 record.
They would need the Jets to finish out 3-2 with losses to the Patriots and Bills. The Bills to finish 3-2 with losses to the Texans and another loss to Dallas or Washington. The Colts finish 3-2 with losses to the Steelers and Texans.
That’s not an impossible scenario, but counting on all of that to happen is not great odds.
If I had to make a guess, I’d say 4 wins gets you in, and 3 wins means Pittsburgh is sitting at home in January for the 3rd time in the past 4 seasons.
Looking for some positive trends? The Steelers often play their best football to close out the season, currently holding a 7 game win streak in the month of December. Tied for the best in the NFL with the Carolina Panthers.
