The WPIAL regular season will come to a close this weekend and the playoff brackets will be revealed on Saturday evening. Earlier this week I broke down the playoff scenarios for the 7 remaining conference titles and 12 remaining guaranteed playoff spots. The WPIAL selection committee will choose the other 16 wild card teams on Saturday after Friday night’s games. Below is a quick breakdown of the current scenarios in play as well as an analysis of the teams in the running for Wild Cards and the bracket outlook heading into the final week of the season. Check out our WPIAL Standings Page and this week’s WPIAL Blitz Show for more!
6A Scenarios
The top four teams make the 6A playoffs. Central Catholic is the conference champion and #1 seed. North Allegheny will be the #2 seed. The Mt. Lebanon-Norwin winner is in the playoffs. If Norwin wins, they will be the #3 seed and Canon-McMillan will be the #4 seed. If Mt. Lebanon and Canon-McMillan win, Canon-Mac will be the #3 seed and Mt. Lebanon will be the #4 seed. If Mt. Lebanon wins but Canon-Mac loses, then Mt. Lebanon will be the #3 seed and Norwin will be the #4 seed.
There is an advantage to being the #3 seed and getting to face North Allegheny in the first round. Central Catholic has won their five conference games by an average of 39 points. On the other hand, North Allegheny’s only blowout was over Hempfield. The Tigers only beat Norwin by 3, Canon-McMillan by 8, and Mt. Lebanon by 9. They also just suffered one of the worst losses in school history, falling 67-0 to rival Pine-Richland.
5A Scenarios
Peters Twp and Woodland Hills have clinched conference titles. Moon, Penn-Trafford, and Pine-Richland have clinched playoff spots. Upper St Clair needs a win over winless Baldwin to clinch a playoff spot. The 3rd place team in the Big East will be either Kiski or Gateway. Kiski gets in with a win OR an Armstrong win while Gateway needs losses by both Kiski and Armstrong to get a guaranteed spot. In the Northeast Conference, two out of Shaler, North Hills, and Penn Hills will get guaranteed playoff spots.
Wild Card Analysis
In all likelihood, the Allegheny Six will get two wild cards – Bethel Park and South Fayette. The final wild card will come down to a team from the Big East or Northeast. Kiski can only finish 4th with a loss AND an Armstrong loss. If Armstrong beats Franklin Regional, the Riverhawks will surpass Gateway by their head-to-head victory for 4th place. Gateway only finishes 4th in the improbable scenario where Kiski beats Woodland Hills and Franklin Regional beats Armstrong. The Penn Hills-Plum game will determine the final playoff spots in the Northeast. If Shaler loses to Pine-Richland by more than 3 points, then North Hills will make the playoffs. In that scenario, Penn Hills would also make it with a win and Shaler would make it if Penn Hills loses.
A 4th place Kiski team would be 4-6 overall. Armstrong would also be 4-6 with a win over Franklin Regional. Gateway plays a non-conference game but could get to 4-6 if they beat Hempfield, but has a hard path to the Wild Card. If Shaler finishes 4th they will have lost to Pine-Richland and be 3-7. North Hills also plays a non-conference game (against Central Valley) and could be either 3-7 or 4-6. Penn Hills . The sleeper team to watch for the wild card is Plum. If the Mustangs beat Penn Hills they will finish 4th in the Northeast and be 5-5 overall. Plum has non-conference victories over Gateway and Kiski, who are both in the playoff conversation in the Big East. If Plum beats Penn Hills, I think they are a very good candidate for the final wild card.
Bracketology
The WPIAL has traditionally given defending champions the top seed if they go undefeated in conference play. This likely puts Pine-Richland back at the top of the bracket, undefeated Peters Twp (last year’s runner-up) as the #2 seed, and Big East Conference Champion Woodland Hills as the #3 seed. The last first round bye will be a choice between Penn-Trafford, Moon, and Upper St Clair. Moon will finish 2nd in the Allegheny Six after beating Upper St Clair in double overtime last week. However, Moon lost to Penn-Trafford 25-24 back in Week 2 which gives Penn-Trafford the inside track to the #4 seed and a first round bye.
With the Allegheny Six getting five teams into the playoffs and only Peters Twp getting a first round bye, this means each of the other four will need to be in a different pod to avoid a first round rematch. Since they all have winning records and the other four playoff qualifiers likely will not have winning records, the easiest solution is to seed them 5th-8th in order of standings (Moon, Upper St Clair, Bethel Park, South Fayette). From there, the other teams should slot in relatively easily into the bracket. Between 9th and 12th we would then see the two teams from the Northeast, the 3rd place team from the Big East, and the final Wild Card team.
Current Bracket Picture:
1. Pine-Richland (bye)
8. South Fayette vs. 9. Kiski
4. Penn-Trafford (bye)
5. Moon vs 12. Wild Card #3
3. Woodland Hills (bye)
6. Upper St Clair vs 11. Northeast #3
2. Peters Twp (bye)
7. Bethel Park vs 10. Northeast #2
4A Scenarios
Only the top two teams in each conference plus two wild cards qualify for the playoffs. Four of the guaranteed playoff spots are decided with Trinity and Thomas Jefferson out of the Big Six and McKeesport and Mars out of the Greater Allegheny. The Parkway Conference currently has a three-way tie at the top between West Allegheny, New Castle, and Montour. West Allegheny and Montour play this week and the winner is in the playoffs. New Castle, due to head-to-head tiebreakers, is almost certainly in the playoffs unless the unlikely scenario where they lose along with Aliquippa and West Allegheny.
Wild Card Analysis
There will likely be three teams vying for two wild card spots. Chartiers Valley out of the Big Six is currently 6-2. The West Allegheny-Montour loser and Aliquippa will get consideration for wild cards out of the Parkway. If Montour beats West Allegheny, then head-to-head results will likely determine the wild cards. Both Aliquippa and Chartiers Valley beat West Allegheny early in the season, which should give those two the advantage. If West Allegheny beats Montour, then Montour’s victory over Aliquippa should put the Spartans in. The last wild card would then come down to either Chartiers Valley or Aliquippa.
Bracketology
One aspect of the bracket to remember is that conference champions are guaranteed first round home games, which means that McKeesport, Trinity, and the Parkway winner will all get seeded in the top four. McKeesport, with Kemon Spell fully healthy, has been the most dominant team in 4A. A Montour win likely gives New Castle the conference title and the #2 seed with Trinity at #3. That likely puts Thomas Jefferson, Mars, and Montour in the 4-6 seeds as the second place teams. Since the WPIAL will want to avoid a conference rematch of Trinity and TJ, that drops either Montour or Mars to #6. Also to avoid a conference rematch with New Castle, Aliquippa drops to #8 which puts Char Valley at #7. The picture gets a little harder if West Allegheny wins, but I think ultimately the WPIAL may give both West A and New Castle as co-conference champions home games, putting New Castle in the 4 seed and defending champions TJ at 5. Other matchups will be aligned to avoid conference rematches, especially if the Parkway gets 4 teams in.
Current Bracket Picture:
If Montour wins:
1. McKeesport vs 8. Aliquippa
4. Thomas Jefferson vs 5. Montour
2. New Castle vs. 7. Chartiers Valley
3. Trinity vs 6. Mars
If West A wins:
1. McKeesport vs. 8. Aliquippa/Char Valley
4. New Castle vs 5. Thomas Jefferson
2. Trinity vs. 7. Montour
3. West Allegheny vs 6. Mars
3A Scenarios
The top three teams from each conference automatically qualify with three additional wild cards. The scenarios in 3A are fairly straightforward. There are only two remaining guaranteed spots left in the playoff field. Imani Christian, Highlands, and Freeport are locked in in the Allegheny Seven Conference. Elizabeth Forward and Avonworth have clinched conference titles while Southmoreland and Central Valley are also in. The final spot in the Interstate Conference will go to Derry (thanks to their win last week over Mt. Pleasant) if either Mt. Pleasant loses to Elizabeth Forward OR Derry beats last place Yough. If Mt. Pleasant and Yough both win, then Mt. Pleasant gets the final guaranteed spot. The Western Hills Conference is a little trickier. North Catholic gets the third place spot with a win over Hopewell. If Hopewell wins and Beaver loses to Avonworth, those three teams would finish in a three-way tie that likely gets decided by Tiebreaker Points. However, third place may not matter much as all three should get wild cards.
Wild Card Analysis
This picture is also relatively straightforward. North Catholic, Beaver, and Hopewell should all be in the playoffs based on their overall bodies of work. One of them will finish third in the Western Hills and the other two should get wild cards. The final wild card then comes down to either Burrell (the 4th place team from the Allegheny Seven) or the fourth place team from the Interstate (either Mt. Pleasant or Derry). The reason this wild card decision is straightforward goes back to non-conference play. Derry beat Burrell and Burrell beat Mt. Pleasant. So depending on who finishes 4th in the Interstate, the WPIAL can fall back on the head-to-head results to decide the last wild card. The most likely scenarios is Mt. Pleasant losing to Elizabeth Forward and finishing 4th then missing the wild card due to their head-to-head loss to Burrell.
Bracketology
The 3A bracket is straightforward at the top with defending champions Avonworth, undefeated Imani Christian, and conference champions Elizabeth Forward. There is some question about the 4th bye, but I think ultimately Central Valley’s strength of schedule will prevail and give the Warriors a bye. Southmoreland could be seeded as high as 4th or as low as 7th, depending on how the Committee views their strength of schedule against the teams from other conferences with more losses. Ultimately, I think Southmoreland with only one loss gets the #5 seed. The team that finishes 3rd in the Western Hills (likely the winner of North Catholic-Hopewell) should get the #6 seed. If Hopewell beats North Catholic they could get seeded as high as 5th but also as low as 10th if they lose. Highlands beat Freeport by 1 point in overtime and should get a home playoff game. In all likelihood, Highlands and Freeport wind up playing Western Hills teams in the first round.
Current Bracket Picture
1. Avonworth (bye)
8. Freeport vs. 9. Beaver
4. Central Valley (bye)
5. Southmoreland vs 12. Burrell
2. Imani Christian (bye)
7. Highlands vs 10. Hopewell
3. Elizabeth Forward (bye)
6. North Catholic vs 11. Derry
2A Scenarios
The top three teams from each conference plus four wild cards make the playoffs. Western Beaver has clinched the Midwestern Conference title but is the only team in that section that has secured their playoff spot. The three playoff spots in the other two conferences are set with conference titles to be decided this week. The game of the week is the showdown for the Century Conference title between Washington and Seton LaSalle who are both 8-1 on the season. South Allegheny can clinch their first outright conference title since 1986 with a win over Steel Valley. Apollo-Ridge and Keystone Oaks have also locked up playoff spots. In the Midwestern Conference, Ellwood City, Riverside, Beaver Falls, and Mohawk are all in the mix for the last two guaranteed spots in the Midwestern. They all play each other this week as Ellwood City plays Beaver Falls and Mohawk plays Riverside. The winner of Ellwood City-Beaver Falls is in and Riverside is in with a win. Mohawk needs a win AND a Beaver Falls loss in order to get in.
Wild Card Analysis
It seems likely that at least two teams from the Midwestern Conference will get Wild Cards. Presumably this will be the losers of the Ellwood City-Beaver Falls and Riverside-Mohawk games. However, if Mohawk loses and New Brighton wins, the Lions would hop the Warriors in the conference standings and have a better overall record. OLSH plays Keystone Oaks this week and should get a wild card with a win. If OLSH loses, they could still get a Wild Card depending on how the other games shake out. Waynesburg has a winnable game against Sto-Rox to get to 5-5 on the season. Defending Champions South Park can also get to 5-5 if they beat Shady Side Academy. In all likelihood, two Midwestern teams and OLSH will get wild cards, leaving the WPIAL to decide between South Park, New Brighton, and Waynesburg for the final wild card spot. Beaver Falls and South Park had two non-conference games against higher-classification teams. Beaver Falls lost to both 4A Blackhawk and 3A Imani while South Park beat a pair of 3A teams (East Allegheny and Deer Lakes).
Bracketology
The top of the bracket is relatively easy with undefeated South Allegheny, the Century Conference Champion (Seton-Wash High winner) and Western Beaver. The Seton-Wash High loser probably gets the #4 seed, followed by the two teams from the Allegheny Conference (Apollo-Ridge and Steel Valley). The final two home games in the opening round likely go to the 2nd and 3rd place teams from the Midwestern Conference. The Keystone Oaks-OLSH game then determines the next few seeds, followed by the two wild cards from the Midwestern Conference and whichever team is selected as the final wild card. Putting OLSH and Keystone Oaks on the bottom half of the bracket also makes scheduling easier as OLSH shares a field with Moon (who will have a home game) and KO shares with Seton and Bishop Canevin. Seton can get a bye, which would open Dormont Stadium for Bishop Canevin to host a game.
Current Bracket Picture:
1. South Allegheny (bye)
8. Riverside vs. 9. KO-OLSH winner
4. Seton-Wash High loser vs 13. Wild Card #4
5. Apollo-Ridge vs 12. Midwestern #5
2. Seton-Wash High winner (bye)
7. Ellwood City vs 10. KO-OLSH loser
3. Western Beaver (bye)
6. Steel Valley vs 11. Midwestern #4
1A Scenarios
Finally in 1A, the guaranteed playoff spots have all been clinched. Two conference titles are still to be decided with Laurel facing Neshannock and California facing Jefferson-Morgan (where Bentworth still has a shot at the conference title!). Fort Cherry and Clairton have clinched their titles and likely the top two seeds. South Side, Bishop Canevin, Chartiers-Houston, Leechburg, and Jeannette are all in.
Wild Card Analysis
The drama in 1A will be which four teams get wild cards. Cornell plays Monessen this week and the winner will get one. Frazier has turned things around in a big way and as the 4th place team in the Eastern Conference should get another. Avella has the best record of the remaining teams with 6 wins, but plays in the much-maligned Tri-County South and played a bad non-conference schedule that featured 1-win Mapletown, 1-win Carlynton, and winless Springdale. The last two Wild Card spots will likely come down to Avella, the Cornell-Monessen loser, 3 teams in the Eastern Conference that are all tied (Brentwood, Riverview, GCC), or Shenango out of the Big Seven. Their reward for being selected as a Wild Card will be a first round date with either Fort Cherry or Clairton. GCC’s non-conference schedule may give them a slight advantage with wins over 3A Mt Pleasant, 2A Apollo-Ridge and a close loss to 2A Shady Side Academy.
Bracketology
Fort Cherry as the defending champions will get the #1 seed and Clairton should get the #2 seed. Laurel as conference champions may get the #3 seed, but they did lose to Bishop Canevin earlier this year, which could elevate Canevin to the #3 spot. If California beats Jefferson-Morgan and wins the TCS, I think the Trojans get seeded somewhere between 5th and 7th. Second place Leechburg and South Side get slotted in next. Jeannette and Neshannock are the top two third place teams currently, though Neshannock has a chance to force a perfect 3-way tie with Laurel and South Side for the Big Seven conference title. The bottom half of the bracket then fills in to avoid conference rematches. Chartiers-Houston lost to Jefferson-Morgan which probably drops C-H behind the two Tri-County South teams.
Current Bracket Picture:
1. Fort Cherry vs 16. Wild Card #4
8. Jeannette vs. 9. Neshannock
4. Bishop Canevin vs 13. Frazier
5. California vs 12. Chartiers-Houston
2. Clairton vs 15. Wild Card #3
7. South Side vs 10. Bentworth
3. Laurel vs 14. Cornell-Monessen winner
6. Leechburg vs 11. Jefferson-Morgan
