The Steelers are slated to pick 21st in this week’s NFL Draft. The Steelers have just six picks in this Draft after trading away their second rounder for DK Metcalf. Due to this, Omar Khan noted in the team’s pre-draft press conference that it is unlikely they will move up in the Draft. He also said that they may entertain offers to trade down and by Thursday the team will identify a list of prospects they absolutely would not trade away from.
Historical Trends
We have been tracking the defining characteristics of recent Steelers first round picks. Omar Khan continued many of the trends of his predecessor Kevin Colbert. Since 2004 all of the Steelers first and second round picks have come from power conferences. Additionally, 18 of Colbert’s 22 first round picks came from programs that finished ranked in the AP Top 25. Similarly, Broderick Jones and Troy Fautanu came from teams that made the College Football Playoff. Age was somewhat of a factor as only four first round picks since 2003 were older than 22 years old (though recently they have broken that trend with the Harris, Pickett, and Fautanu selections). Since 2014 the Steelers have put heavy weight in athletic metrics (such as SPARQ and RAS).
Before the selection of Fautanu last year, the GM (Colbert and subsequently Khan) and Mike Tomlin had attended the Pro Day of the prior 12 first round picks (Ziggy Hood in 2009 was the last one they did not attend). However, Fautaunu may be an outlier because Washington’s Pro Day conflicted with the NFL Meetings which both Khan and Tomlin attended. They have placed more weight on pre-draft visits lately as both Jones and Fautanu visited Pittsburgh. The duo of Khan and Tomlin attended Pro Days at Alabama, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Texas this year. Tomlin also attended Pro Days at Clemson and Georgia with both of his coordinators. Additionally, assistant GM Andy Weidl went to Pro Days at Ole Miss and Pitt.
With the draft only a few days away, here is a look at the ten prospects we feel are most likely to be the Steelers first round selection, based on those past trends and our own intuition.
Out of Range
There are a number of prospects at the top of the draft class that the Steelers have spent a minimal amount of time scouting. This starts with the top five elite players (Miami QB Cam Ward, Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter, Penn State EDGE Abdul Carter, Michigan DT Mason Graham, and Boise St RB Ashton Jeanty). The Steelers also spent a very minimal amount of time on offensive linemen, likely ruling out LSU’s Will Campbell and Missouri’s Armand Membou. Other top prospects at their respective positions that will likely go in the Top 15 include Georgia EDGE Jalon Walker, Arizona WR Tet McMillan, and Penn State TE Tyler Warren. Michigan CB Will Johnson has elite tape but is coming off an injury and did not run a 40 at his Pro Day, so his medicals could cause him to drop down the board. It can be safely assumed that these players are not among the likely group that the Steelers will draft.
Trade Up Scenarios
In their pre-draft press conference, Omar Khan and Mike Tomlin acknowledged that with only 6 picks in the draft, the Steelers ability to move up in the first round was somewhat limited. Of course, one should never say “never” but it looks highly unlikely that the Steelers will move up the board. This year’s draft does have the potential to get a little crazy as there are a lot of “good but not great” players after the first set of elite talents. This means that a lot of teams will likely wait to see who is available at their pick then field calls from those who might be interested in moving up. Additionally, with the 2026 Draft in Pittsburgh, it is extremely unlikely the Steelers would wager any future picks to move up in this draft.
Trade Down Scenarios
Given the Steelers lack of a second round pick, a trade down makes a lot of sense. Depending on the players available, a team picking in the late 20s looking to move up for an offensive lineman or EDGE rusher could package their 1st and 2nd round picks to Pittsburgh. Alternatively, a team from the early 2nd round (looking at you, Giants and Saints) who passed on a QB in the first round could trade their 2nd round pick plus more (maybe a 2026 1st in a dream scenario) to move up to #21. There are some aggressive GMs behind the Steelers (Philadelphia, Kansas City, Buffalo, Detroit, Washington) who have executed first round trades in the past and are looking to bolster their team’s Super Bowl window. Omar Khan has said he would like to recoup a second round pick in this draft, and trading down could enable that to happen.
Potential Selections Tier 1 (Pro Day Attendance)
The Steelers potential draft choices can be broken into two groups. Those who had Omar Khan and Mike Tomlin in attendance at their Pro Day and those that came to Pittsburgh for Pre-Draft Visits. While the first category would continue the trend since 2010 of all the first rounders except Troy Fautanu having Tomlin attend their Pro Day. However, with Fautanu’s selection last year and Tomlin only going to six this year the choices are more limited. This has opened up speculation that one of the Pre-Draft Visitors could be in the mix as well.
Matthew Golden (WR-Texas)
Highlights
Texas Prospects Breakdown
Why the Steelers Will Draft Him: Golden ran a blazing fast 4.29 40 at the Combine. Some “truthers” have suggested that the timing was off and his actual speed was closer to 4.38, but he is still a well-rounded wide receiver without many flaws in his game. Golden’s best games came at the end of the season, averaging over 100 yards per game between the SEC Championship and the Longhorns CFP run. In addition to having Omar Khan and Mike Tomlin at his Pro Day, Golden came to Pittsburgh for a pre-draft visit.
Why the Steelers Won’t Draft Him: Golden could easily hear his name called in the Top 12 picks of the Draft (Dallas at #12 is definitely in the WR market). He may not have the size of a true #1 (5’11” 191 lbs) but his route-running, hands, and fluidity give him strong potential as a #2 receiver.
Emeka Egbuka (WR-Ohio State)
Highlights
SCB Prospect Profile
Why the Steelers Will Draft Him: Egbuka is largely considered the “safest” prospect in the draft. He is a well-rounded receiver who ended his career as Ohio State’s leader in receptions despite playing opposite numbers first round picks. He has the route-running savvy to get open, strong hands, and can make quick cuts in space. He is also a team-first player who was praised for his leadership and mentality. Omar Khan, Mike Tomlin, and Arthur Smith attended the Ohio State Pro Day and Egbuka was part of the pre-Pro Day Dinner.
Why the Steelers Won’t Draft Him: Egbuka isn’t the flashiest receiver so other teams may target guys who are more athletically dominant which could cause him to slip down the board. On the other hand, given his incredibly strong intangibles and ability to line up anywhere on offense, teams in the Top 20 may covet Egbuka’s versatility (especially those looking to add weapons for a young quarterback). His skill set projects best as a solid, reliable #2 receiver.
Jahdae Barron (CB-Texas)
Highlights
Texas Prospects Breakdown
Why the Steelers Will Draft Him: Barron is a well-rounded, versatile cornerback who played inside and outside and took snaps as both a corner and a safety. Most of his college experience was in a zone defensive scheme where he displayed great instincts and ball skills. Last season Barron led the SEC in interceptions and passes defended and won the Jim Thorpe Award. Omar Khan and Mike Tomlin attended Texas’ Pro Day and Barron was reportedly part of the pre-Pro Day dinner.
Why the Steelers Won’t Draft Him: Given his size (5’11” 194 lbs), Barron’s draft projections are all over the board. Some analysts have him as a Top 15 prospect for his versatility while others have him as a borderline first rounder because they view him as a nickel corner only.
Nick Emmanwori (S-South Carolina)
Highlights
SCB Prospect Profile
Why the Steelers Will Draft Him: While Khan and Tomlin did not attend the South Carolina Pro Day, defensive backs coach Gerald Alexander did and he ran Emmanwori’s positional workout drills. This was the only assistant coach during the pre-draft process to specifically go and work a player out at his Pro Day. Emmanwori has an elite combination of size (6’3″ 220 lbs) and speed (4.38 40-yard dash). Athletically, Emmanwori is similar to Clemson product Isaiah Simmons who was drafted in the Top 10 as a hybrid linebacker/safety. Emmanwori is a little lighter than Simmons and had similar height/speed/explosiveness to Ryan Shazier (though weighing about 15 pounds less). He has the frame to add weight and play as a middle linebacker or the speed to play as a roving safety. Emmanwori has the versatility to play in the box against the run or in man or zone and the size to match up with bigger-bodied tight ends over the middle of the field. Considering how the Steelers have been torched by tight ends in the past, adding a player with his skill set would be a welcome addition to the defense. In addition to having Alexander work him out at the South Carolina Pro Day, Emmanwori came to Pittsburgh for a pre-draft visit.
Why the Steelers Won’t Draft Him: Emmanwori’s diverse skill set has his draft projections all over the map. A team that covets his versatility and play-making could snatch him in the Top 15. Clemson’s Isaiah Simmons, an athletically similar prospect, went in the Top 10 (though he hasn’t panned out in the NFL the way many thought he would). On the flip side, the hybrid nature of his build and playing style has landed him in the late 1st round on many “Consensus” boards that combine rankings from numerous sources. Some scouts view him as just a box safety, so depending on how teams consider him positionally will determine his NFL future.
Kenneth Grant (DT-Michigan)
Highlights
SCB Prospect Profile
Why the Steelers Will Draft Him: Grant was part of a dominant Michigan defensive front over the last two seasons. He has the ideal size (6’4″ 330 lbs) to play on the inside as well as the tenacity to never give up on plays. Grant is a strong run defender and can effectively two-gap and eat up blockers in the middle. The Steelers have been missing a true two-gapper in the middle of the defense and Grant could fill that role. Defensive coordinator Teryl Austin attended his Pro Day after the Steelers met with Grant at both the East-West Shrine Bowl and the Combine.
Why the Steelers Won’t Draft Him: In their pre-draft press conference, Mike Tomlin mentioned that the nose tackle position is slowly becoming extinct, similar to the fullback. Grant is not quite a “true” 0-tech nose but he still needs to work on developing his pass rush repertoire and could be viewed as just a two-down player early in his career.
Potential Selections Tier 2 (Pre-Draft Visitors)
Shedeur Sanders (QB-Colorado)
Why the Steelers Will Draft Him: The Steelers are desperate for a quarterback. And desperate teams do stupid things. There has been some late momentum for Sanders being the selection after his pre-draft visit last week and a lot of projections now have him falling out of the Top 10. He had a high completion percentage and can throw with touch but doesn’t push the ball down the field (less than 25% of his completions at Colorado were 10+ yards downfield). He has enough athleticism to maneuver in the pocket and pick up some yards on the ground. He is a tough and gritty player who had to hold up behind a horrendous offensive line and is at his best on rhythm/timing throws. Sanders’ ball placement is good, leading his receivers on crossing routes, but he doesn’t have the arm strength to fire the ball into tighter windows and tends to rely on moon balls for his receivers to chase when throwing deep.
Why the Steelers Won’t Draft Him: He sucks. His yardage totals were ballooned by his receivers getting yards after the catch. He throws a ton of screens and check-downs. He will hold the ball and take bad sacks while having just an average arm. All of that, coupled with the off-field shenanigans of having Prime’s son on the team do not make for a good combination.
Jaxson Dart (QB-Ole Miss)
Highlights
SCB Prospect Profile
Why the Steelers Will Draft Him: Dart’s peripheral stats were very good. He led the nation in yards per attempt and downfield completions. Dart also broke Eli Manning’s school records for passing yards in a season and in a career. He has a good arm and enough mobility to be used on designed runs and is willing to push the ball down the field. Assistant General Manager Andy Weidl attended the Ole Miss Pro Day and Dart came to Pittsburgh for a pre-draft visit.
Why the Steelers Won’t Draft Him: Dart has been tied to teams in the Top 10, including New Orleans. The flip side is that he is still very much a developmental prospect who played in Lane Kiffin’s structured offense. Only 14% of his throws were true drop-backs. The rest were screens, RPOs, or Play-Action with designed or limited reads. He will seemingly wait until the very last second to throw the ball, leading to a lot of needless hits. Overall, Dart is a player that will need time to learn an NFL system and given how structured his college offense was, may be best in a Shanahan-style scheme rather than one where he has to read the whole defense.
Derrick Harmon (DT-Oregon)
Highlights
SCB Prospect Profile
Why the Steelers Will Draft Him: The Steelers have a need to get younger on the defensive line. Currently only Keanu Benton and Logan Lee are under 30 years old. Harmon has incredible explosiveness off the ball and displayed great athleticism for a man his size. Harmon posted 5 sacks and 10.5 TFLs this past season and ran a 4.95 40-yard dash after measuring 6’4″ 313 pounds at the Combine. He has the upper body strength to bully his way through blockers and can be a disruptive, penetrating force on the interior of the defensive line. The Steelers met with Harmon at the Combine and had him to Pittsburgh for a pre-draft visit.
Why the Steelers Won’t Draft Him: Harmon started his collegiate career at Michigan State weighing over 350 pounds. He has worked on his body and slimmed down a bit but will have to maintain his conditioning in the NFL. Harmon also does have some missed tackles on his tape and will need to improve his finishing. Additionally, the Steelers downgraded Christian Gonzalez two years ago for a poor response to why he transferred. Given that Harmon transferred from Michigan State to Oregon last season, he will need to have presented a good rationale to the Steelers on why he changed schools.
Shemar Stewart (EDGE-Texas A&M)
Why the Steelers Will Draft Him: Stewart is an athletic freak who came to Pittsburgh in April for a pre-draft visit. The team also met with him at the Senior Bowl. Stewart’s size (6’5″ 267 pounds) and athleticism is similar to fellow Texas A&M product Myles Garrett. He led the Aggies defense in pressures and has positional versatility to play inside and outside.
Why the Steelers Won’t Draft Him: Stewart moved around the Aggies 4-man front playing as both a 5-tech and an EDGE but only finished his 3-year collegiate career with 4.5 sacks and 11 TFLs. He misses a ton of tackles and for all his athleticism does not finish plays well.
Omarion Hampton (RB-North Carolina)
Why the Steelers Will Draft Him: Hampton was a do-it-all back for the Tar Heels who set the school record for all-purpose yards with over 2000. He has prototypical NFL size (6’0″ 220 pounds) and runs angry. Hampton looks like he gets stronger as the game goes on and he punishes defenders. He seeks out contact and is not afraid to lower his head and physically exert himself on a defender. Hampton has the versatility to be a feature back and to stay on the field in passing situations, both as a receiver out of the backfield and can hold his own in pass protection. The Steelers met with Hampton at the Combine and had him to Pittsburgh for a pre-draft visit.
Why the Steelers Won’t Draft Him: Hampton has been tied to some teams ahead of the Steelers in the Draft (specifically Denver). Additionally, after drafting Najee Harris in the first round and the changing roles of running backs, the Steelers may not think it is worth investing yet another first round pick in a running back. On top of all this, the 2025 running back class is very deep and the Steelers have spent a lot of time scouting backs who will be drafted on Day 2 and Day 3. Hampton is a good player but the Steelers have more pressing needs in the first round.
Someone Else
Why the Steelers Will Draft Someone Else: There are only three players this cycle who check the boxes of having Mike Tomlin at their Pro Day AND coming to Pittsburgh for a pre-draft visit. One is Texas WR Matthew Golden who was discussed above. The other two are Ohio St RB TreVeyon Henderson and Texas RB Jaydon Blue. Henderson is projected as a borderline first/second round prospect and Blue is likely a Round 3 or 4 player.
Other players projected outside the first round that could be “reach” picks include Alabama QB Jalen Milroe who had Khan, Tomlin, and QB Coach Tom Arth at his Pro Day along with meeting the Steelers at the Senior Bowl and Combine. Also worth mentioning from Alabama’s Pro Day is LB Jihaad Campbell who is a hybrid inside/outside backer whose medical testing will be a big factor in his draft positioning. Another player with important medicals is Ohio St OT Josh Simmons who missed part of last season with injury but is the best pure LT in the class. The Steelers brass had dinner with versatile Georgia LB Mykel Williams before his Pro Day. Tomlin was in attendance for Georgia’s Pro Day which also featured first round safety Malaki Starks. Defensive Coordinator Teryl Austin attended Michigan’s Pro Day and if CB Will Johnson‘s lack of predraft workouts cause him to fall to 21, the Steelers should strongly consider him. The Steelers met with Ole Miss DT Walter Nolen at the Senior Bowl and Combine, plus Andy Weidl attended his Pro Day. While Nolen did not make a pre-draft visit to Pittsburgh, his teammate CB Trey Amos did visit the Steelers and met the team at the Senior Bowl.
Why the Steelers Won’t Draft Someone Else: In all likelihood, the Steelers won’t pick a player from the “Someone Else” category unless they do something incredibly stupid (like when they drastically over-drafted Terrell Edmunds) or if they trade down. Trading down to garner additional picks in the second or third round, where a number of talented running backs and receivers should be available, is a very viable strategy. There were 11 prospects we considered “out of range” and 10 more potentials, landing us at 21 prospects and the Steelers holding the 21st overall pick. That’s not even including potential offensive linemen, tight ends, or other edge rushers who could be taken off the board before the Steelers pick. If they stay at 21, chances are at least one of the players identified above will be available.
