Bracketology is both the art and the science of looking at the resumes of 70+ teams and deciding which teams should be “in” and “out” of the NCAA Tournament field, not based on what I think, but based on the historical trends of the NCAA Selection Committee. Predicting what the Committee will do is often a difficult venture but that’s the fun and the challenge. I’ll be updating my bracket projection at least twice a week from here until Selection Sunday.
Here is my latest bracket projection of the 2025-2026 College Basketball Season. Once again, I will be taking part in The Bracket Matrix‘s annual bracket competition where I am ranked ahead of ESPN’s Joe Lunardi.
Projected Seed List
Bracket Date: 2/16
Current conference leaders or highest remaining seeds in conference tournaments are projected as auto-bids and are listed in bold. The last 4 in teams that play in the “First Four” play-in games are listed in italics.
1 seeds: Michigan, Duke, Arizona, UConn
2 seeds: Houston, Purdue, Illinois, Iowa St
3 seeds: Nebraska, Kansas, Texas Tech, Florida
4 seeds: Vanderbilt, Virginia, Michigan St, Gonzaga
5 seeds: Arkansas, North Carolina, Louisville, St. John’s
6 seeds: BYU, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky
7 seeds: Wisconsin, St. Louis, Clemson, Utah St
8 seeds: Villanova, Miami (FL), NC State, Texas A&M
9 seeds: UCF, Iowa, USC, Auburn
10 seeds: SMU, Texas, TCU, Indiana
11 seeds: Georgia, UCLA, Missouri, St. Mary’s, Santa Clara, Miami (OH)
12 seeds: USF, Belmont, Liberty, Stephen F. Austin
13 seeds: Yale, UNC-Wilmington, High Point, Cal Baptist
14 seeds: Hawaii, Portland St, South Alabama, North Dakota St
15 seeds: Austin Peay, ETSU, Wright St, Merrimack,
16 seeds: UT-Martin, Navy, Long Island, Bethune-Cookman, NJIT, Morgan St
The Bubble
Last 4 Byes: Texas, TCU, Indiana, Georgia
Last 4 IN: UCLA, Missouri, St Mary’s, Santa Clara
First 4 OUT: New Mexico, San Diego St, (Miami-OH), Virginia Tech
Next 4 OUT: Seton Hall, Ohio St, VCU, West Virginia
Others Considered: Oklahoma St, California, (South Florida), Stanford, Tulsa, McNeese, Boise St, Grand Canyon, Nevada, LSU, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Akron, Arizona St, Oklahoma, Baylor, Colorado, Washington, Wake Forest
