Every game counts for teams that have the Playoffs in sight across an NFL season. Each of the 17 matchups is as important as the other, and a win counts just as much in December as it does in September. And yet, the way the schedule pans out can have a positive or negative impact on a team’s chances, as does the strength of the teams you play at certain junctures.
The Steelers’ 2025 strength of schedule (.526 combined win rate for opponents last season) is not the toughest in the league, but it is above average. And yet, we would also note that the tougher games are heavily weighted toward the end of the season. While fans will want to win every game, it is also essential that the Steelers head into the back-end of the season with something to defend against tougher opponents.
Some winnable games in September
To explain: four of the six opening games come against teams that had a poorer record than Pittsburgh’s 10-7 record last term. They are the Jets (5-12 last season), Patriots (4-13), Browns (3-14), and Bengals (9-8). The Seattle Seahawks (Week 2 at Acrisure Stadium) posted the same 10-7 record, and the Vikings (Week 4 in Dublin) had an impressive 14-3 record.
Now, while acknowledging the caveat that a team’s previous season’s record doesn’t always mean they will do the same the next season, and we would cite the Patriots, in particular, as a team that will be a lot better in 2025, it does feel like an opportunity to get some momentum early. Indeed, it will be interesting to see how the Steelers’ NFL playoff odds shift from now until the Bye Week (coming after the trip to Ireland in Week 4), and again after the two intra-divisional matchups with the Browns and Bengals in Weeks 5 and 6. At the very least, Mike Tomlin will want to be coming out of that stretch with a winning record, meaning 4-2 or better.
In mid-season, the Steelers go through a stretch of tough games, but some of those look winnable on paper. They’ll meet teams like the Packers and Chargers, both of which have playoff ambitions, in late October and November, and there will be a couple of tougher-than-they-look games against the Bears and Colts during that run, too.
Super Bowl favorites on the late-winter menu
Yet, it is on November 30th that we will really get down to business, and that is when we see the reason why the Steelers’ strength of schedule is ranked fairly high. The Bills come to Acrisure Stadium on the last day of November, followed by a trip to Baltimore a week later. Two weeks after that, it’s the formidable task of beating the Lions at Ford Field, and the campaign wraps up with a home tie against the Ravens in early January.
While there are a couple of games in that stretch (Dolphins, Browns) for which the Steelers will likely be favorites, the bottom line is that four of the last six games come against teams that are considered among the favorites for the Super Bowl. The combined 40-11 record of the Lions, Ravens, and Bills is in stark contrast to the records of the teams the Steelers will be playing in September. To be clear: we aren’t saying that the Steelers will lose those games – far from it. But it just highlights our point about coming into that stretch across the winter with something to build on. The last thing Tomlin will want is coming into those late-season games and needing to ‘chase it.’ Yet, the opportunity is there in September and October to build a platform, so that when the likes of the Bills and Ravens (currently co-favorites for Super Bowl LX) meet the Steelers, the confidence is there, both that the Steelers can win the game, and perhaps meet those teams again in January.
